{"id":91829,"date":"2025-11-10T00:16:37","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T23:16:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=91829"},"modified":"2025-11-09T14:39:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T13:39:30","slug":"zbynek-fiala-ukrajina-vidi-cerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/10\/zbynek-fiala-ukrajina-vidi-cerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Ukrajina vid\u00ed \u010dern\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se konec? Hroz\u00edc\u00ed p\u00e1d \u0159ady m\u011bst doprov\u00e1z\u00ed st\u00e1le siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161en\u00e9 \u00fatoky na energetiku, velitelsk\u00e1 centra a v\u00fdrobu zbran\u00ed. Ale kdo prohr\u00e1v\u00e1? Tohle Rusy vy\u010derp\u00e1, raduje se koment\u00e1tor agentury Bloomberg.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Co se to na t\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b d\u011bje? V\u00a0noci na ned\u011bli p\u0159ilet\u011bl dosud nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00fd raketov\u00fd \u00fatok za celou dobu v\u00e1lky a ochromil ukrajinskou energetiku., \u017ee V d\u016fsledku rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch v\u00fdpadk\u016f proudu jsou v\u0161echny tepeln\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny v zemi mimo provoz, ozn\u00e1mil Hlavn\u00ed energetick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to zkombinujeme s\u00a0p\u00e1dem Pokrovska a obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00edm n\u011bkolika ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u011bst, kdy rusk\u00e1 dominance ve vzduchu prakticky znemo\u017e\u0148uje desetitis\u00edc\u016fm ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f \u00fanik z\u00a0kotle, p\u016fsob\u00ed to dojmem fin\u00e1le tohoto bratrovra\u017eedn\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Neochabuj\u00ed v\u0161ak ani ti, kdo se n\u00e1m sna\u017e\u00ed tenhle z\u00e1v\u011br vymluvit. Ned\u011blejte z\u00a0toho por\u00e1\u017eku, h\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 z\u00a0n\u00e1zorov\u00e9 str\u00e1nky agentury Bloomberg jej\u00ed koment\u00e1tor Marc Champion.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2025-11-07\/ukraine-war-pokrovsk-s-fall-doesn-t-have-to-be-a-defeat<\/a><\/p>\n

Je opa\u010dn\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru ne\u017e ti, kdo si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee te\u010f u\u017e se to posype samo:<\/p>\n

\u201eVladimir Putin pot\u0159ebuje toto v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ne\u017e nastane zima. Opadalo list\u00ed, kter\u00e9 krylo postupuj\u00edc\u00ed jednotky p\u0159ed drony. A jsou tu z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed obrann\u00e9 linie, kter\u00e9 Ukrajina vybudovala za Pokrovskem. Ty budou do jara, ne\u017e se stromy obal\u00ed, komplikovat postup je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Kdo\u017ee tu vlastn\u011b vyhr\u00e1l?<\/p>\n

\u201eP\u00e1d Pokrovska lze tak\u00e9 vn\u00edmat jako dal\u0161\u00ed etapu ukrajinsk\u00e9 strategie, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je vy\u010derpat rusk\u00e9 v\u00fdhody v oblasti lidsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a vybaven\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pro p\u0159edstavu: rusk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m trvalo 20 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, ne\u017e se p\u0159esunuly z Avdiivky do Pokrovska, co\u017e je vzd\u00e1lenost necel\u00fdch 50 kilometr\u016f. V dob\u011b m\u00edru cesta autem trv\u00e1 jednu hodinu. B\u011bhem tohoto obdob\u00ed se po\u010det rusk\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed a zran\u011bn\u00fdch na ukrajinsk\u00e9 stran\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ztrojn\u00e1sobil z 401 350 na 1,147 milionu. Tyto \u00fadaje jsou stranick\u00e9, proto nespolehliv\u00e9, ale mezi nez\u00e1visl\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi analytiky panuje \u0161irok\u00e1 shoda, \u017ee trend, kter\u00fd odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed, je spr\u00e1vn\u00fd; pro Rusko to byl dosud nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rok v\u00e1lky.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

J\u00e1 s\u00e1m nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nar\u00e1\u017e\u00edm hlavn\u011b na z\u00e1visl\u00e9 analytiky, proto\u017ee ti tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee letos vznikl \u0159\u00e1dov\u00fd nepom\u011br ztr\u00e1t, ov\u0161em v\u00a0neprosp\u011bch Ukrajiny. N\u011bjak\u00e9 zbran\u011b je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e1, ale chyb\u00ed lidi, a to u\u017e se odchyt\u00e1vaj\u00ed na ulic\u00edch jako div\u00e1 zv\u011b\u0159.<\/p>\n

Ty \u201enez\u00e1visl\u00e9\u201c analytiky v\u0161ak opravdov\u00e1 maka\u010dka teprve \u010dek\u00e1:<\/p>\n

\u201ePro spojence Kyjeva je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edt na pam\u011bti dv\u011b v\u011bci. Za prv\u00e9, nenechte se ovliv\u0148ovat propagandou Kremlu. Zm\u011bna vl\u00e1dy v USA, a\u010dkoli je pro Moskvu velmi v\u00fdhodn\u00e1, nedopadla tak \u0161patn\u011b, jak se mohlo zd\u00e1t. Pro v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky je v\u0161ak z\u00e1sadn\u00ed, aby Putin nemohl v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v Pokrovsku vyu\u017e\u00edt k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed Donalda Trumpa, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00ed dohoda, jakou m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina z\u00edskat, je kapitulace.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Ono toti\u017e nejde ani tak o n\u011bjakou Ukrajinu:<\/p>\n

\u201eNebylo by tak\u00e9 pro Evropu lep\u0161\u00ed omezit ztr\u00e1ty a p\u0159ijmout podm\u00ednky Kremlu? Ne, proto\u017ee jak Putin opakovan\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, nejde jen o Ukrajinu. Pova\u017euje to za v\u00e1lku s\u00a0NATO a jak p\u00ed\u0161e americk\u00fd analytik rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch v\u011bc\u00ed Dara Massicot v nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u010d\u00edsle \u010dasopisu Foreign Affairs, u\u017e se na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku p\u0159ipravuje.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Tady oby\u010dejn\u011b vtip\u00e1lci dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat, jak se za posledn\u00edch t\u0159icet let hranice Ruska p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily k\u00a0hranic\u00edm NATO, aby bylo z\u0159ejm\u00e9, co se tu chyst\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Zapla\u0165p\u00e1mbu, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed Babi\u0161ova vl\u00e1da chce p\u0159esm\u011brovat diplomacii ve prosp\u011bch m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a vyu\u017e\u00edt k\u00a0tomu i form\u00e1t Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e9 skupiny. Vedle t\u011bch, kdo vid\u00ed v\u00fdhody pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky, jsou toti\u017e taky lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed nemaj\u00ed o co st\u00e1t. Nejen ti odchycen\u00ed na ulici a vyslan\u00ed bez v\u00fdcviku pod roj dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u010dekaj\u00ed, a\u017e vystr\u010d\u00ed nos. Jsou tu tak\u00e9 ti, kdo jsou bez proudu a mrznou v\u00a0nevytopen\u00e9m byt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd je p\u0159esn\u011b pl\u00e1n Ruska s\u00a0\u00fatoky na energetickou infrastrukturu, pt\u00e1 se vlivn\u00fd bloger Simplicius na platform\u011b Substack. P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho analytika Rybara, \u017ee Rusko se zat\u00edm vyh\u00fdbalo ni\u010den\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch elektrick\u00fdch veden\u00ed o nap\u011bt\u00ed 750 kV. Jen\u017ee posledn\u00ed \u00fatoky zas\u00e1hly i tato veden\u00ed.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/simplicius76.substack.com\/p\/largest-ever-russian-ballistic-attack<\/a><\/p>\n

Za nejlep\u0161\u00ed odhad rusk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f Simplicius pova\u017euje to, co p\u00ed\u0161e bloger RussiansWithAttitude:<\/p>\n

\u00da\u010delem \u00fatok\u016f na energetickou s\u00ed\u0165 nen\u00ed jej\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed, ale<\/em><\/p>\n

1) vytvo\u0159en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f, nap\u011bt\u00ed a spousty pr\u00e1ce pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1zem\u00ed,<\/em><\/p>\n

2) dostat s\u00ed\u0165 na samou hranici, do bodu, kdy jedin\u00fd \u00fader zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd na 750 kV a jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny m\u016f\u017ee s\u00ed\u0165 skute\u010dn\u011b vy\u0159adit,<\/em><\/p>\n

3) v d\u016fsledku bodu 2) b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraveni k okam\u017eit\u00e9 eskalaci, jakmile do hry vstoup\u00ed \u201et\u0159et\u00ed strana\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 podce\u0148uj\u00ed, kolik rusk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed k p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fd otev\u0159en\u00fd vstup NATO\/EU do v\u00e1lky. Je to tak\u00e9 demonstrace s\u00edly, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 protivn\u00edka odradit: \u201ePod\u00edvejte se, kolik bychom toho mohli v Evrop\u011b vyhodit do vzduchu ka\u017edou noc, a nem\u011bli byste \u0161anci tomu n\u011bjak zabr\u00e1nit. Tak se do toho neple\u0165te.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Simplicius podporuje n\u00e1zor, kter\u00fd na\u0161el na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edti na\u00a0adrese Armchair Warlord (n\u011bco jako Pohovkov\u00fd gener\u00e1l):<\/p>\n

\u201eRusov\u00e9 se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed o vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, kdy se sna\u017e\u00ed vy\u0159adit dostatek kapacity, aby rozvr\u00e1tili ukrajinsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed dopravu, a p\u0159itom nevytvo\u0159ili situaci, kter\u00e1 by zp\u016fsobila b\u011bhem zimy umrznut\u00ed tis\u00edc\u016f senior\u016f, b\u00fdval\u00fdch sov\u011btsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edch civilist\u016f.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Kdyby nastal \u00fapln\u00fd kolaps energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b a vyvolal takovou humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed katastrofu, i spojenci Ruska by se zdr\u00e1hali pokra\u010dovat v jeho podpo\u0159e, soud\u00ed Simplicius. Smyslem rusk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, kter\u00e9 p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed Ukrajinu na pokraj energetick\u00e9 krize, proto m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jen jasn\u00e1 snaha odradit Ukrajinu od dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f na rusk\u00fd energetick\u00fd sektor. Nechte toho, a my toho taky nech\u00e1me.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky do Ruska jsou v kombinaci s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi sankcemi bolestiv\u00e9, ale zdaleka ne tak existen\u010dn\u00ed, jak se tvrd\u00ed. Putin podle Simplicia v\u00ed, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly se hrout\u00ed i bez ni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b. Tak\u017ee zni\u010den\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b nen\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou pro v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se konec? Hroz\u00edc\u00ed p\u00e1d \u0159ady m\u011bst doprov\u00e1z\u00ed st\u00e1le siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161en\u00e9 \u00fatoky na energetiku,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62717,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,22,26,7678],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91829"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91829"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91829\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91829"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91829"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91829"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}