{"id":91348,"date":"2025-11-04T00:26:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T23:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=91348"},"modified":"2025-11-03T18:36:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T17:36:34","slug":"andrew-korybko-trojstranna-reakce-nato-na-nejnovejsi-ruske-obavy-zvysuje-riziko-rozsahlejsi-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/04\/andrew-korybko-trojstranna-reakce-nato-na-nejnovejsi-ruske-obavy-zvysuje-riziko-rozsahlejsi-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Trojstrann\u00e1 reakce NATO na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 obavy zvy\u0161uje riziko rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tomu by se dalo zabr\u00e1nit, pokud by se Polsko, kter\u00e9 vel\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b NATO a jeho\u017e nov\u00fd prezident ned\u00e1vno nevylou\u010dil rozhovory s Putinem, pokud by na tom z\u00e1visela bezpe\u010dnost jeho zem\u011b, nenechalo manipulovat k \u00fa\u010dasti na souvisej\u00edc\u00edch provokac\u00edch nebo k podpo\u0159e t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou za n\u011b odpov\u011bdn\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podez\u0159el\u00fd incident s rusk\u00fdm dronem nad Polskem z po\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed Estonska, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 letouny\u00a0<\/span>naru\u0161ily jeho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, a\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vn\u00fd strach ze Skandin\u00e1vie z rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f vedly\u00a0<\/span><\/a>podle Financial Times\u00a0<\/a><\/span>NATO k \u00favaze o troj\u00ed reakci na sv\u00e9m v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle\u00a0<\/span>. Jejich zdroje nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee by to mohlo m\u00edt podobu vyzbrojen\u00ed sledovac\u00edch dron\u016f, zefektivn\u011bn\u00ed pravidel\u00a0pro nasazen\u00ed st\u00edhac\u00edch pilot\u016f\u00a0<\/a>a po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO p\u0159\u00edmo na hranici bloku s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed dva p\u0159\u00edpady nesou zjevn\u00e1 rizika eskalace, jeliko\u017e oper\u00e1to\u0159i nebo piloti ochotn\u00ed st\u0159\u00edlet na spou\u0161\u0165 by mohli vyvolat v\u00e1\u017enou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed krizi, pokud by st\u0159\u00edleli na (nato\u017e sest\u0159elovali) rusk\u00e9 drony nebo trysk\u00e1\u010de. To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee k tomu dojde v mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru nebo zejm\u00e9na v rusk\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm. Pokud jde o posledn\u00ed z nich, rusk\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed hrozeb by se b\u011bhem trv\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto cvi\u010den\u00ed prudce zv\u00fd\u0161ilo, proto\u017ee by mohla slou\u017eit jako z\u00e1st\u011brka pro agresi, v\u010detn\u011b hybridn\u00ed agrese prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dron\u016f a\/nebo \u017eold\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ru\u0161en\u00ed NATO by tak\u00e9 mohlo v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 drony budou p\u0159el\u00e9t\u00e1vat hranice, jak tvrd\u00ed tato anal\u00fdza,\u00a0<\/span>pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd podez\u0159el\u00fd incident nad Polskem. V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by NATO mohlo m\u00edt z\u00e1minku k (mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edem napl\u00e1novan\u00e9) eskalaci proti Rusku, kter\u00e1 by se mohla snadno vymknout kontrole, pokud nezv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed chladn\u00e1 hlava. Financial Times poznamenal, \u017ee \u201ezm\u011bna nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt ve\u0159ejn\u011b komunikov\u00e1na\u201c, tak\u017ee by mohla vypuknout krize bez p\u0159edchoz\u00edho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud NATO ud\u011bl\u00e1 jeden \u0161patn\u00fd krok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Komunikace je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 pro to, aby se tomu zabr\u00e1nilo, ale Polsko\u00a0<\/span>odm\u00edtlo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>rusk\u00fd n\u00e1vrh na projedn\u00e1n\u00ed podez\u0159el\u00e9ho incidentu s dronem ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a mluv\u010d\u00ed ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Maria Zacharovov\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vno odsoudila\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Rusko za zru\u0161en\u00ed v\u00edz rusk\u00fdm expert\u016fm p\u0159ed zased\u00e1n\u00edm OBSE ve Var\u0161av\u011b. Polsko usiluje o obnoven\u00ed sv\u00e9ho ztracen\u00e9ho statusu velmoci, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed je v tomto ohledu historick\u00fd, jak je vysv\u011btleno\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e by n\u00e1sledn\u011b o\u017eivilo jeho stalet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed rivalitu s Ruskem, a to i na \u00fakor region\u00e1ln\u00ed stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsko by mohlo uplatnit jednu, n\u011bkter\u00e9 nebo v\u0161echny t\u0159i \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fadajn\u00e9 troj\u00ed reakce NATO na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ruskou hrozbu: Kaliningrad, B\u011blorusko a\/nebo Ukrajina. Polsko tak\u00e9 vel\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b NATO\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a nem\u00e1 v pl\u00e1nu zpomalit svou bezprecedentn\u00ed militarizaci, tak\u017ee by se jeho politicko-vojensk\u00e9 veden\u00ed mohlo c\u00edtit povzbuzeno k tomu, aby jednoho dne otestovalo rusk\u00e9 hranice. To by v\u0161ak mohlo v\u00e9st k v\u00e1lce mezi NATO a Ruskem, pokud by bylo sest\u0159eleno rusk\u00e9 letadlo,\u00a0<\/span>uvedl rusk\u00fd velvyslanec ve Francii\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd polsk\u00fd prezident Karol Nawrocki se moud\u0159e rozhodl neriskovat, kdy\u017e po z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m incidentu odm\u00edtl zav\u00e9st bezletovou z\u00f3nu nad \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Ukrajiny,\u00a0<\/span>a to i p\u0159es tlak\u00a0<\/span><\/a>sv\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Pozd\u011bji se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee vl\u00e1da lhala o rusk\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti za \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 na dom\u011b pot\u00e9, co vy\u0161lo najevo, \u017ee za \u0161kodu mohla raketa NATO.\u00a0<\/span>Tuto skute\u010dnost mu tak\u00e9 zatajila\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Sily hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, kter\u00e9 by mohly brzy\u00a0<\/span>spolupracovat s Ukrajinou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, cht\u011bj\u00ed zcela jasn\u011b rozpoutat dal\u0161\u00ed polsko-ruskou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Nawrocki ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>nevylou\u010dil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>rozhovor s Putinem, pokud by na tom z\u00e1visela bezpe\u010dnost Polska, mohl by tak v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b krize u\u010dinit, m\u00edsto aby se nechal zm\u00e1st silami hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, zejm\u00e9na liber\u00e1ln\u011b-globalistickou vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed koalic\u00ed a jejich spojenci ve vojensk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdce, kte\u0159\u00ed se ho pouze sna\u017eili manipulovat do v\u00e1lky. Bez p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1dy NATO do jak\u00e9koli potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed krize, a\u0165 u\u017e vyprovokovan\u00e9 polsk\u00fdm hlubok\u00fdm st\u00e1tem nebo pobaltsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, by se v\u00e1lce mezi NATO a Ruskem mohlo zabr\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Tomu by se dalo zabr\u00e1nit, pokud by se Polsko, kter\u00e9 vel\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b NATO…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91349,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,39,31,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91348"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}