{"id":91118,"date":"2025-11-01T07:36:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T06:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=91118"},"modified":"2025-11-01T07:36:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T06:36:18","slug":"andrew-korybko-pet-ponauceni-z-obkliceni-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/11\/01\/andrew-korybko-pet-ponauceni-z-obkliceni-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: P\u011bt ponau\u010den\u00ed z obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Ukrajiny"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Putin ve sv\u00e9m nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm gestu dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle op\u011bt natahuje Zelensk\u00e9mu a Trumpovi olivovou ratolest, proto\u017ee si skute\u010dn\u011b nep\u0159eje, aby se konflikt vlekl, ani aby se roz\u0161i\u0159ovaly rusk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed n\u00e1roky, k \u010demu\u017e by se pak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stalo.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Putin\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1mil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee v Kupjansku a Krasnoarmejsku (Pokrovsku) bylo obkl\u00ed\u010deno v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>deset tis\u00edc ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jeho ministerstvo obrany\u00a0<\/span>brzy\u00a0<\/span><\/a>na seznam p\u0159idalo i Dimitrov (Mirnograd) pobl\u00ed\u017e druh\u00e9ho jmenovan\u00e9ho m\u011bsta. Rusk\u00fd v\u016fdce tak\u00e9 navrhl zastaven\u00ed boj\u016f, aby zahrani\u010dn\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i,\u00a0<\/span>v\u010detn\u011b ukrajinsk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, mohli cestovat na frontu a informovat o situaci. Putin navrhl hromadnou kapitulaci, podobn\u011b jako p\u0159i patov\u00e9 situaci v Azovstalu na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022, ale Zelensk\u00e9ho to z\u0159ejm\u011b nezaj\u00edm\u00e1, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm. Co to v\u0161echno znamen\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Rusko nad\u00e1le z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 navzdory miliard\u00e1m z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoci Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Economist\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ned\u00e1vno publikoval \u010dl\u00e1nek, v n\u011bm\u017e lobbuje za to, aby Evropa v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech letech financovala Ukrajinu, co\u017e podle nich bude da\u0148ov\u00e9 poplatn\u00edky st\u00e1t nejm\u00e9n\u011b 390 miliard dolar\u016f. Jejich \u010dl\u00e1nek tak\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee letos bylo utraceno 100\u2013110 miliard dolar\u016f, co\u017e je \u201edosud nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stka\u201c, celkem tedy od roku 2022 360 miliard dolar\u016f (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b podhodnocen\u00ed). Je zcela z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoc nedok\u00e1zala Rusko zatla\u010dit zp\u011bt, pouze zpomalila jeho zisky. Obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Ukrajiny proto ukazuje, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz Rusku nezp\u016fsob\u00ed strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Vlak s om\u00e1\u010dkou by mohl skon\u010dit, pokud Ukrajina toto obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed uzn\u00e1<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>Zelenskij\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a vrchn\u00ed velitel\u00a0<\/span>Alexandr Syrskyj\u00a0<\/span><\/a>tato obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed pop\u0159eli, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b proto, \u017ee se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd l\u00e1kav\u00fd vlak by mohl skon\u010dit nebo alespo\u0148 zpomalit, pokud by sv\u00fdm sil\u00e1m na\u0159\u00eddili kapitulaci. Koneckonc\u016f, ztr\u00e1ta tis\u00edc\u016f voj\u00e1k\u016f ve t\u0159ech obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00edch b\u011bhem 3,5 let konfliktu nen\u00ed mali\u010dkost, kter\u00e1 by mohla n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitele p\u0159im\u011bt k p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny, proto\u017ee v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jim bylo sl\u00edbeno, ji\u017e nen\u00ed v dohledu.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Dobyt\u00ed t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed osad Ruskem by bylo docela velk\u00e1 v\u011bc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e budou ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly eliminov\u00e1ny, nebo se vzdaj\u00ed, dobyt\u00ed t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed osad Ruskem by bylo pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00e1 v\u011bc, zejm\u00e9na Krasnoarmejsku\/Pokrovsku, proto\u017ee je to\u00a0<\/span>vstupn\u00ed br\u00e1na do Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kam rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e vstoupily\u00a0<\/span><\/a>za\u010d\u00e1tkem l\u00e9ta. Jak\u00fdkoli pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed postup pod\u00e9l nechr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u00ed za v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bnou osadu by mohl donutit Ukrajinu k vyhov\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm na m\u00edr nebo p\u0159im\u011bt USA k \u201eeskalaci za \u00fa\u010delem deeskalace\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Putin preferuje rychl\u00e9 politick\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed vleklou vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lkou<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od toho, co n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed odhaduj\u00ed, Putin nechce,\u00a0<\/span>aby se konflikt vlekl\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ani nechce roz\u0161i\u0159ovat \u00fazemn\u00ed n\u00e1roky Ruska, a proto vyzval obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky ke kapitulaci. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee toto\u00a0<\/span>gesto dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by mohlo v\u00e9st k odstoupen\u00ed Ukrajiny ze zbytku Donbasu a n\u00e1sledn\u011b k\u00a0<\/span>rychl\u00e9mu politick\u00e9mu urovn\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e9 uspokoj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 c\u00edle. Zelenskyj chce v\u0161ak pokra\u010dovat v boji z d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch sobeck\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, tak\u017ee nakonec se to scvrkne na to, co chce Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Trump se mus\u00ed brzy rozhodnout, zda si chce tuto v\u00e1lku p\u0159ivlastnit<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump pova\u017euje ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt za \u201eBidenovu v\u00e1lku\u201c a trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee by k n\u011bmu nedo\u0161lo, kdyby vyhr\u00e1l volby v roce 2020. Brzy se v\u0161ak mus\u00ed rozhodnout, zda chce m\u00edr, jak tvrd\u00ed, nebo zda je ochoten si tuto v\u00e1lku p\u0159ivlastnit t\u00edm, \u017ee ji bude\u00a0<\/span>donekone\u010dna\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v\u00e9st\u00a0<\/a>. Putin mu d\u00e1v\u00e1 odbo\u010dku t\u00edm, \u017ee vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky ke kapitulaci, aby o\u017eivil zmrazen\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 rozhovory, tak\u017ee je na Trumpovi, zda vyvine tlak na Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby vyhov\u011bl, nebo p\u0159ijme jeho vzdor se v\u0161\u00edm, co s sebou nese.<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u011b nalezen\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil v t\u011bchto t\u0159ech osad\u00e1ch je proto mnohem d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by se na prvn\u00ed pohled mohlo zd\u00e1t vzhledem k v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9mu poznatku. Putin ve sv\u00e9m nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm gestu dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle op\u011bt nab\u00edz\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9mu a Trumpovi olivovou ratolest, proto\u017ee si skute\u010dn\u011b nep\u0159eje, aby se konflikt vlekl, ani aby se roz\u0161i\u0159ovaly rusk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed n\u00e1roky, jak by se pak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stalo. Tento okam\u017eik bude tak s odstupem \u010dasu vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako miln\u00edk, a\u0165 u\u017e se Trump rozhodne cokoli.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
\n\"\"<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Putin ve sv\u00e9m nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm gestu dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle op\u011bt natahuje Zelensk\u00e9mu a Trumpovi olivovou ratolest, proto\u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,10005,1635],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91118"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91118\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}