{"id":90913,"date":"2025-10-30T00:12:47","date_gmt":"2025-10-29T23:12:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90913"},"modified":"2025-10-29T13:10:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T12:10:04","slug":"andrew-korybko-usa-zneuzivaji-energetickou-geopolitiku-jako-zbran-ve-snaze-rozbit-brics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/30\/andrew-korybko-usa-zneuzivaji-energetickou-geopolitiku-jako-zbran-ve-snaze-rozbit-brics\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: USA zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed energetickou geopolitiku jako zbra\u0148 ve snaze rozb\u00edt BRICS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z optick\u00e9ho hlediska by to mohlo usp\u011bt, ale ve skute\u010dnosti to nic z\u00e1sadn\u00edho nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce\u00a0<\/span><\/a>USA\u00a0<\/span>proti Rusku, prvn\u00ed za druh\u00e9 Trumpovy administrativy, nejsou zam\u00fd\u0161leny\u00a0<\/span>ani tak jako zbra\u0148 proti rusk\u00e9 ekonomice\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e jako prost\u0159edek k vyu\u017eit\u00ed energetick\u00e9 geopolitiky ve snaze rozb\u00edt BRICS,\u00a0<\/span>zejm\u00e9na\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jej\u00ed j\u00e1dro Rusko-Indie-\u010c\u00edna (RIC). Toto hodnocen\u00ed je zalo\u017eeno na \u00fazk\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch vazb\u00e1ch Indie a \u010c\u00edny s USA navzdory 50% a 55% cl\u016fm, na jejich pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed rivalit\u011b navzdory\u00a0<\/span>za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edmu sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a na jejich triangulaci s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V po\u0159ad\u00ed, v jak\u00e9m byly rozd\u011bleny, je obchod Indie a \u010c\u00edny s USA mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jejich obchod s Ruskem, ale Rusko jim dod\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st energie. I kdy\u017e ani jedna z nich nechce platit za ropu v\u00edce, celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel USA jako trest za ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00ed, jako\u017e i\u00a0<\/span>sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt uvaleny na ty jejich finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce, kter\u00e9 tento obchod usnad\u0148uj\u00ed, by mohly b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. To by je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mohlo donutit k p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o druh\u00fd bod, lep\u0161\u00ed vztahy s USA ne\u017e s nimi slou\u017e\u00ed jejich vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm, proto\u017ee ani jeden z nich nechce riskovat sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kdy se jeho rival spoj\u00ed s USA proti n\u011bmu, co\u017e by mohlo m\u00edt strategick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Mohli by si proto vypo\u010d\u00edtat, \u017ee pokud se postav\u00ed USA ve snaze o ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy a udr\u017e\u00ed si u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vazby s Ruskem, budou m\u00edt v\u00edce co ztratit, pokud to neud\u011bl\u00e1 i ten druh\u00fd, tak\u017ee je lep\u0161\u00ed se pod\u0159\u00eddit. To se rovn\u00e1 zneu\u017eit\u00ed v\u011bz\u0148ova dilematu jako zbran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 posledn\u00edm bodem je, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich mohl odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem vypo\u010d\u00edtat, \u017ee jeho rival nez\u00edsk\u00e1 lep\u0161\u00ed vztahy s Ruskem na jeho ob\u00e1van\u00fd \u00fakor, pokud oba neform\u00e1ln\u011b \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b (kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd kvalifik\u00e1tor) dodr\u017e\u00ed nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce USA, co\u017e by ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich mohl ud\u011blat i p\u0159es\u00a0<\/span>ve\u0159ejnou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>kritiku\u00a0<\/a>. Jak se uk\u00e1zalo, n\u00e1kupy rusk\u00e9 ropy sni\u017eovaly ji\u017e p\u0159ed zaveden\u00edm sankc\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e indick\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy klesly od srpna do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed\u00a0o 14 %\u00a0<\/a>a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 o\u00a08,1 %\u00a0<\/a>v prvn\u00edch dev\u00edti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch roku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez ohledu na to, jak p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00e9 se tyto body mohou zd\u00e1t, nikdo by nem\u011bl p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Indie a\/nebo \u010c\u00edna zcela p\u0159estanou dov\u00e1\u017eet ruskou energii, nato\u017e hned. Na trhu v tuto chv\u00edli prost\u011b nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e1 nab\u00eddka, aby tak mohly u\u010dinit. I kdyby ostatn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ili produkci, tyto dv\u011b zem\u011b by se mohly jen postupn\u011b odvykat od rusk\u00e9 energie, kter\u00e1 by pak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b byla prod\u00e1v\u00e1na s je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed slevou, aby je motivovala k udr\u017een\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f. V\u0161echno se proto\u00a0<\/span>pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b samo vyrovn\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA by nicm\u00e9n\u011b mohly st\u00e1le zd\u016fraz\u0148ovat sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dovozu Indie a \u010c\u00edny pod n\u00e1tlakem (prvn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>potvrdil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jejich nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odb\u011bratel a druh\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>jedin\u00fd, kdo o n\u011bm informoval\u00a0<\/span><\/a>), aby\u00a0<\/span>vyvr\u00e1tily m\u00fdtus\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o tom, \u017ee v\u0161echny zem\u011b (zejm\u00e9na Indick\u00e1 Indie) spolupracuj\u00ed v souladu proti USA, na co\u017e si Trump d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>st\u011b\u017eoval\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, \u017ee takov\u00e1 informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lka by nem\u011bla \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd hmatateln\u00fd vliv na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed procesy, proto\u017ee pro Trumpa je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pouze vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed toho, \u017ee USA naru\u0161ily jednotu BRICS (a zejm\u00e9na Indick\u00e9 Indie).<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto ohledu by rusk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>nebyly omezeny ani v politick\u00e9 fantazii, \u017ee Indie a \u010c\u00edna brzy nadobro ztrat\u00ed jeho energii, jeliko\u017e Kreml m\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b velk\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd fond na to, aby financoval svou stranu konfliktu alespo\u0148 po dobu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika let, i kdy\u017e to m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st ur\u010dit\u00e9 n\u00e1klady u\u0161l\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. Z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee USA skute\u010dn\u011b zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed energetickou geopolitiku jako zbra\u0148 ve snaze rozb\u00edt BRICS, co\u017e by se jim mohlo zd\u00e1t \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9, ale ve skute\u010dnosti to nic podstatn\u00e9ho nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Z optick\u00e9ho hlediska by to mohlo usp\u011bt, ale ve skute\u010dnosti to nic z\u00e1sadn\u00edho nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1161,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90913"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90913\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}