{"id":90656,"date":"2025-10-26T00:19:57","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T22:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90656"},"modified":"2025-10-25T13:00:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T11:00:11","slug":"zbynek-fiala-kudy-to-potece","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/26\/zbynek-fiala-kudy-to-potece\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Kudy to pote\u010de?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pro\u010d se nic ned\u011bje na trhu s ropou, p\u0159esto\u017ee se do sankc\u00ed zapojil i Trump a zkou\u0161\u00ed blokovat hlavn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 dodavatele?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Situace na trhu s\u00a0ropou je patrn\u00e1 z\u00a0cedul\u00ed nad benz\u00ednovou pumpou. V\u00a0m\u00e9di\u00edch sice bur\u00e1cej\u00ed americk\u00e9 i evropsk\u00e9 sankce proti \u010dty\u0159em hlavn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm dodavatel\u016fm, tedy nov\u011b i proti t\u011bm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm Rosn\u011bftu a Lukoilu, ale na trhu je plno, ceny \u0161ly dol\u016f. M\u016f\u017ee za to i rychl\u00fd r\u016fst pod\u00edlu elektrick\u00fdch aut ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00e9 v\u00a0EU letos \u010din\u00ed skoro 16 procent nov\u00fdch registrac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdyby se to \u0159\u00eddilo jen \u010ceskem, kter\u00e9 bojuje za spalov\u00e1ky do roztrh\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bla, vypadalo by to trochu jinak. Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na celkov\u00e9 po\u010dty aut na baterky a hybrid\u016f na silnic\u00edch, v\u00a0\u010cesku jsou to po\u0159\u00e1d jen des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voz\u016f, by\u0165 r\u016fst za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt skokov\u00fd, u nov\u00fdch prodej\u016f meziro\u010dn\u011b o 67 procent. Ale v\u00a0EU u\u017e p\u0159ibylo jen letos p\u0159es milion elektrick\u00fdch voz\u016f a celkov\u00fd po\u010det je odhadov\u00e1n na n\u011bkolik milion\u016f. V\u00a0USA m\u011bli milion nov\u00fdch aut, kter\u00e9 se pump\u011b vyhnou, u\u017e roku 2024. Dokonce i v\u00a0Indii bylo jen letos zaregistrov\u00e1no skoro 6 milion\u016f takov\u00fdch aut.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u011b velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nab\u00edz\u00ed \u010c\u00edna, kde u\u017e se celkov\u00fd po\u010det nefosil\u016f na kole\u010dk\u00e1ch bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 40 milion\u016fm.\u00a0\u00a0Nejsn\u00e1ze si tuhle cifru p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00edte porovn\u00e1n\u00edm s\u00a0ro\u010dn\u00ed celkovou sv\u011btovou produkc\u00ed automobil\u016f, kter\u00fdch bylo podle statistik Worldometers letos zat\u00edm vyrobeno k 75 milion\u016fm kus\u016f.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/cs\/auta\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Z\u00a0toho je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee slunce za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 uj\u00eddat benz\u00ednu a naft\u011b opravdu vydatn\u011b. Nov\u00e9 regulace, dan\u011b a poplatky tento v\u00fdvoj urychl\u00ed, ale p\u0159\u00edval levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch, lep\u0161\u00edch a u\u017eite\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aut bude je\u0161t\u011b \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm l\u00e1kadlem. \u010c\u00edna hl\u00e1s\u00ed p\u0159\u00edchod automobilov\u00fdch bateri\u00ed s\u00a0kapacitou, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje del\u0161\u00ed dojezd ne\u017e n\u00e1dr\u017e benz\u00ednu. \u010cesk\u00fd rozvoj nab\u00edje\u010dek p\u0159edstihl skute\u010dn\u00fd trh s\u00a0elektrick\u00fdmi auty, tak\u017ee na jednu jich je \u0161est. A to nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me preferenci nab\u00edjet doma zadarmo z\u00a0fotovoltaiky na st\u0159e\u0161e (co\u017e za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 prudce zv\u00fdhod\u0148ovat \u017eivot na venkov\u011b, kde m\u00e1te v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci m\u00edt vlastn\u00ed st\u0159echu).<\/p>\n

Tak to prost\u011b je, pumpy osi\u0159\u00ed. V\u00a0tomhle v\u011b\u0159\u00edm \u0161pan\u011blsk\u00e9mu premi\u00e9ru Sanchezovi, kter\u00fd tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee konkurenceschopnost zvy\u0161uj\u00ed nov\u00e9 technologie, nikoliv obrana t\u011bch star\u00fdch. Praktick\u00e1 \u017eivotnost spalov\u00e1k\u016f je mo\u017en\u00e1 nekone\u010dn\u00e1, tuhle jsem spat\u0159il na silnici MB 1000 s\u00a0norm\u00e1ln\u00edm \u010d\u00edslem, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd veter\u00e1n. Ale jejich mor\u00e1ln\u00ed \u017eivotnost se zkr\u00e1t\u00ed. Nejen\u017ee porostou provozn\u00ed n\u00e1klady, ale za\u010dnou taky p\u0159ib\u00fdvat m\u011bsta i cel\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1s s\u00a0t\u00edm pomalu nepust\u00ed dovnit\u0159. Investice do auta je dlouhodob\u00e1, budoucnost v\u00a0tom hraje.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee sankce zu\u0159\u00ed, Trump se s\u00a0Putinem nesejde, ale do v\u00fdvoje cen ropy zat\u00edm promlouvaj\u00ed siln\u011bji technologie ne\u017e v\u00e1lka. Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladim\u00edr Putin v\u00a0prvn\u00ed reakci ozna\u010dil sankce za v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b zleh\u010doval jejich dopad na ruskou ekonomiku i schopnost pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch akc\u00edch na Ukrajin\u011b. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee to postihne sp\u00ed\u0161 druhou stranu, a\u017e ropa zdra\u017e\u00ed a rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1 inflaci. Uvid\u00edme.<\/p>\n

V\u00edc m\u011b zaj\u00edm\u00e1, zda m\u016f\u017ee Rusko sankce n\u011bjak obej\u00edt. Kdy\u017e jsem se na to zkou\u0161el zeptat um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, zatuhla, z\u0159ejm\u011b pot\u0159ebovala \u010das, aby m\u011b mohla nahl\u00e1sit. Tak jsem se rad\u011bji pod\u00edval do Wall Street Journal:<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi odb\u011brateli rusk\u00e9 ropy jsou te\u010f \u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e1 odtud bere p\u011btinu sv\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch dovoz\u016f, a Indie, co bere z Ruska dokonce t\u0159etinu, proto\u017ee od roku 2022 je to pro ni nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdroj. Z\u00a0rusk\u00e9ho pohledu jsou to je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla, proto\u017ee po ztr\u00e1t\u011b evropsk\u00e9ho trhu \u010c\u00edna p\u0159edstavuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovinu rusk\u00fdch v\u00fdvoz\u016f ropy a Indie v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159etinu.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u00fd. Sankce se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed dod\u00e1vek tankery, ale \u010c\u00edna bere nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed sibi\u0159sk\u00fdm ropovodem. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti ohl\u00e1sily, \u017ee budou sankce dodr\u017eovat, ale je tu plej\u00e1da men\u0161\u00edch, kter\u00e9 se mohou rozhodnout jinak, proto\u017ee nejsou na obchodech s\u00a0Amerikou z\u00e1visl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Indick\u00fd premi\u00e9r Mori se sna\u017eil zpo\u010d\u00e1tku Trumpovi vzdorovat, ale nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed indick\u00fd dovozce u\u017e cosi vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00e9ho sl\u00edbil. Co bude doopravdy platit, a hlavn\u011b kdo a jak to chce prosazovat a kontrolovat, je ve hv\u011bzd\u00e1ch. \u201eIndick\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed rafinerie kupuj\u00ed ruskou ropu hlavn\u011b od prost\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f, nikoliv p\u0159\u00edmo od Rostn\u011bftu nebo Lukoilu, a to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt cesta, jak sankce obej\u00edt,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed na WSJ jeden z\u00a0osloven\u00fdch analytik\u016f.<\/p>\n

Navzdory p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm o kolapsu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9m sankcemi a v\u00e1lkou z\u016fstala rusk\u00e1 ekonomika relativn\u011b odoln\u00e1, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 WSJ Alexandra Prokopenkov\u00e1, pracovnice Carnegieho Centra pro Rusko a Eurasii v Berl\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 p\u016fsobila do roku 2022 jako poradkyn\u011b Rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee to Rusku podle n\u00ed nemus\u00ed vydr\u017eet. \u201eNejde o to, \u017ee by jim do\u0161ly pen\u00edze,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. \u201eAle u\u017e nebudou schopni financovat situaci tradi\u010dn\u00edmi zp\u016fsoby, prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dan\u00ed, d\u00edl\u010d\u00edmi \u0161krty ve v\u00fddaj\u00edch. U\u017e nebudou schopni udr\u017eovat iluzi, \u017ee se nic v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho ned\u011bje.\u201c<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00fdmi cestami bude podle n\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed tisku pen\u011bz, co\u017e podn\u00edt\u00ed inflaci, zaveden\u00ed drastick\u00fdch \u0161krt\u016f v soci\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u00e1vk\u00e1ch a nahrazen\u00ed syst\u00e9mu n\u00e1boru dobrovoln\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f k boji na Ukrajin\u011b n\u00e1silnou mobilizac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

(Tak u\u017e to s\u00a0analytiky b\u00fdv\u00e1: Putin \u010dek\u00e1 zdra\u017een\u00ed v\u00a0USA, analytici naopak zdra\u017een\u00ed v\u00a0Rusku\u2026)<\/p>\n

Alina Poljakovov\u00e1, prezidentka a gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editelka Centra pro anal\u00fdzu evropsk\u00e9 politiky, tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee prezident Vladimir Putin \u201enem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem o m\u00edr, proto\u017ee pokud se spokoj\u00ed s n\u011b\u010d\u00edm, co nedok\u00e1\u017ee doma prodat jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, bude vypadat slab\u00fd.\u201c Poukazuje na to, \u017ee \u201ekolem Putina a Kremlu je spousta lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed si p\u0159ej\u00ed jeho odchod. A jakmile projev\u00ed slabost, je to pro n\u011bj i jeho vl\u00e1du konec.\u201c<\/p>\n

Tolik WSJ. Z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e1 moudra bych dok\u00e1zal vyt\u00e1hnout i z levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0hlediska vnit\u0159n\u00edch mocensk\u00fdch boj\u016f je na tom Trump stejn\u011b jako Putin, mus\u00ed to brzdit, nebo mu ti bl\u00e1zni rozpoutaj\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou. Trump odm\u00edtl dodat Tomahawky, tak aspo\u0148 dus\u00ed Rusa sankcemi. Z\u00e1jem o m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0Putinem v\u0161ak trv\u00e1, i podle ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marka Rubia, kter\u00fd hraje v\u00a0Trumpov\u011b t\u00fdmu jest\u0159\u00e1ba.<\/p>\n

V nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dnech p\u0159itom prob\u011bhnou dv\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vrcholn\u00e1 setk\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u00a0Malajsii summit ASEAN a v\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreji APEC. Prvn\u00ed se t\u00fdk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce v\u00a0jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, ale \u010c\u00edna a Rusko spolupracuj\u00ed a promluvit tam m\u00e1 i Putin (asi na d\u00e1lku). APEC je \u201epacifick\u00e9\u201c sdru\u017een\u00ed, tedy za \u00fa\u010dasti USA, a tam m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed Trump na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm prezidentem Si \u0164in-pchingem.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 se poda\u0159\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1r uhasit, mo\u017en\u00e1 naopak pokro\u010d\u00ed regionalizace sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s\u00a0prudk\u00fdm poklesem univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed role USA a dolaru. A nastat m\u016f\u017ee i oboj\u00ed. Nebo se \u010dek\u00e1 na konec ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kdy bude v\u0161echno snaz\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee pora\u017een\u00e1 strana bude oslabena?<\/p>\n

Putinova proroctv\u00ed, \u017ee sankce na rusk\u00e9 dodavatele vyvolaj\u00ed r\u016fst cen ropy a inflaci, se tedy zat\u00edm nenapl\u0148uj\u00ed, ale chce to samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u010das. Z\u00a0rusk\u00e9ho hlediska by to kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b oslabilo vliv sankc\u00ed, proto\u017ee rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvozce by ze sv\u00fdch o\u0159ezan\u00fdch prodej\u016f vy\u017ed\u00edmal lep\u0161\u00ed cenu. Ale dlouhodob\u011b by to urychlilo tlak na \u00fat\u011bk od fosilu.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed nad to m\u00edt vlastn\u00ed st\u0159echu s\u00a0\u017eiv\u00fdm dr\u00e1tem na zem, to v\u00e1s ty nepoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 kli\u010dkuj\u00edc\u00ed flotily tanker\u016f nejasn\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu v\u016fbec nemusej\u00ed zaj\u00edmat.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pro\u010d se nic ned\u011bje na trhu s ropou, p\u0159esto\u017ee se do sankc\u00ed zapojil i Trump…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,310,22,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90656"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90656"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90656\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}