{"id":90605,"date":"2025-10-25T05:13:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T03:13:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90605"},"modified":"2025-10-25T05:13:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T03:13:46","slug":"jak-se-zvrtlo-washingtonske-tazeni-proti-ruske-rope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/25\/jak-se-zvrtlo-washingtonske-tazeni-proti-ruske-rope\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak se zvrtlo washingtonsk\u00e9 ta\u017een\u00ed proti rusk\u00e9 rop\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

USA se nepoda\u0159ilo odl\u00e1kat Indii od rusk\u00e9 ropy, a tak s\u00e1hly po sv\u00e9 obl\u00edben\u00e9 zbrani: sankc\u00edch. N\u00e1tlak ale n\u011bco stoj\u00ed.<\/h3>\n

P\u0159edstavte si vlivn\u00e9ho n\u00e1padn\u00edka, kter\u00fd se m\u011bs\u00edce dvo\u0159\u00ed mlad\u00e9 d\u00e1m\u011b, jen aby se jeho n\u00e1vrhy setkaly s odporem a nerozhodnost\u00ed. Jeho nemotorn\u00e9 pokusy o n\u00e1mluvy nikam nevedou, impulzivn\u011b d\u00edvku unese a vz\u00e1p\u011bt\u00ed ozn\u00e1m\u00ed zasnouben\u00ed. Jeho doprovod se raduje z bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se svatby.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1padn\u00edkem jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a mladou d\u00e1mou, kterou se jim nepoda\u0159ilo z\u00edskat, je Indie. Proto\u017ee se Washingtonu nepoda\u0159ilo p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed \u2013 a ostatn\u011b i ostatn\u00ed \u2013 \u017ee je v jejich z\u00e1jmu p\u0159estat nakupovat ruskou ropu, uch\u00fdlil se k n\u00e1tlaku jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd zn\u00e1: sankcemi a hrozbou sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ti, kdo j\u00e1saj\u00ed nad nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm pokusem Trumpovy administrativy o siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ruska prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sankc\u00ed proti ropn\u00fdm gigant\u016fm Rosn\u011bf\u0165 a Lukoil, se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt zcela neovlivn\u011bni donucovac\u00ed a kr\u00e1tkozrakou povahou v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u2013 pokud se v\u016fbec v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm stane, co\u017e je dost nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Explicitn\u00edm c\u00edlem nov\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, jak je formuloval ministr financ\u00ed Scott Bessent, je udusit\u00a0<\/span>\u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd stroj Kremlu\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Trump v\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 nebo se tak alespo\u0148 sna\u017e\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it \u2013 \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee na rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta Vladimira Putina ud\u011blat dostate\u010dn\u00fd dojem, aby souhlasil s okam\u017eit\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se vzdal rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u011blo by b\u00fdt nyn\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko se takov\u00e9mu tlaku nepoddne. M\u011blo by b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jsme sv\u011bdky nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edho ta\u017een\u00ed sankc\u00ed \u2013 i kdy\u017e s hlubok\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky tohoto postoje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropa z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u017eivotod\u00e1rnou silou ka\u017ed\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 ekonomiky, a proto je neobchodovateln\u00e1. Rusk\u00e1 ropa je sice zam\u011bniteln\u00e1, ale pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m nepostradateln\u00e1. Jej\u00ed odstran\u011bn\u00ed by vy\u017eadovalo vytla\u010den\u00ed stovek milion\u016f barel\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e by m\u011blo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 dopady. Jak mnoz\u00ed zd\u016fraznili, v j\u00e1dru ka\u017ed\u00e9ho seri\u00f3zn\u00edho pokusu omezit p\u0159\u00edstup rusk\u00fdch barel\u016f na trh je paradox: to by jednodu\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161ilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ceny, a t\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edmo sn\u00ed\u017eilo rusk\u00e9 zisky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010dinnost nov\u00fdch omezen\u00ed bude jednozna\u010dn\u011b z\u00e1viset na tom, jak horliv\u011b je USA budou vym\u00e1hat prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sekund\u00e1rn\u00edch sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di subjekt\u016fm obchoduj\u00edc\u00edm s ruskou ropou. Pokud jsou v\u0161ak minul\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti n\u011bjak\u00fdm vod\u00edtkem, Washington nebude schopen udr\u017eet tlak na cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 u\u017e jen proto, \u017ee ho k tomu trhy donut\u00ed pr\u00e1v\u011b z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Laxn\u00ed vym\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1va zaji\u0161\u0165uje fungov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu a zabra\u0148uje chaotick\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed politici tak mohou z\u00edsk\u00e1vat politick\u00e9 body za to, \u017ee jsou v\u016f\u010di Rusku tvrd\u00ed, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9mu tlaku. Z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed pozic\u00ed se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 jak\u00e1si \u0161ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na rovnov\u00e1hy a zabra\u0148uje se nestabilit\u011b na \u00farovni syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ano, je mo\u017en\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161it n\u00e1klady pro Rusko, co\u017e se stalo ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve a bude nevyhnuteln\u00e9 i nyn\u00ed. Objemy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstanou na chv\u00edli potla\u010deny, slevy se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed a logistick\u00e1 slo\u017eitost se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Ale jak uk\u00e1zaly i minul\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti, budou nalezena alternativn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. \u0160ablona pro tato \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ji\u017e existuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec toto performativn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed pouze vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tlakov\u00fd ventil: Rusko poci\u0165uje t\u0159en\u00ed, z\u00e1padn\u00ed mocnosti si udr\u017euj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00e9 zd\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti \u2013 alespo\u0148 mezi sebou \u2013 a, co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, trhy z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed spo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee nejm\u00e9n\u011b jedna velk\u00e1 indick\u00e1 rafinerie m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu\u00a0<\/span>\u201ep\u0159ekalibrovat\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0sv\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy rusk\u00e9 ropy. Tak\u00e9 se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee n\u011bkolik \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch ropn\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed pozastavuje dod\u00e1vky rusk\u00e9 ropy p\u0159epravovan\u00e9 po mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 vid\u011bt, jak bude Indie postupovat. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b omez\u00ed n\u00e1kupy, zpo\u010d\u00e1tku mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u00fdrazn\u011b. Indie se obecn\u011b zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ekra\u010dovat hranice USA a m\u00e1 tendenci b\u00fdt velmi opatrn\u00e1, pokud jde o vystavov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch bank riziku sankc\u00ed. Na rozd\u00edl od iluz\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si d\u011blaj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na fantazijn\u00ed konec spektra podporuj\u00edc\u00edho BRICS, Indie nem\u00e1 chu\u0165 situaci hn\u00e1t do bodu, kdy by to vedlo k z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu rozchodu se Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nikdo by se v\u0161ak nem\u011bl nechat zm\u00e1st domn\u011bnkou, \u017ee tyto sankce jsou v t\u00e9to v\u011bci kone\u010dn\u00fdm slovem. Pokud je pom\u011brn\u011b odhaluj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bna n\u00e1zor\u016f na p\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed konferenci v Berl\u00edn\u011b n\u011bjak\u00fdm ukazatelem, Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed nem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu kapitulovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem diskuse u kulat\u00e9ho stolu indick\u00fd ministr obchodu Piyush Goyal poznamenal, \u017ee N\u011bmecko ji\u017e po\u017e\u00e1dalo o v\u00fdjimku ze sankc\u00ed jak od Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed (kter\u00e9 samo za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce sankcionovalo Rosn\u011bf\u0165), tak od USA ohledn\u011b rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed vlastn\u011bn\u00fdch Rosn\u011bft\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou leg\u00e1ln\u011b vlastn\u011bny ruskou spole\u010dnost\u00ed, ale v roce 2022 byly p\u0159evedeny pod spr\u00e1vu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Britsk\u00fd ministr obchodu Chris Bryant, kter\u00fd sed\u011bl po Goyalov\u011b levici, se vm\u00edsil do debaty a vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee Lond\u00fdn rychle vyjednal pro Berl\u00edn v\u00fdjimku z britsk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, a vyj\u00e1d\u0159il jistotu, \u017ee n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho se chyst\u00e1 i s Ameri\u010dany, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1valo dojem rutinn\u00edho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi p\u0159\u00e1teli. Goyal v\u0161ak trval na sv\u00e9m:\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePro\u010d vyzdvihovat Indii?\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bryant, kter\u00e9mu zjevn\u011b chyb\u011bla schopnost myslet o krok dop\u0159edu, up\u0159esnil, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 pouze o\u00a0<\/span>\u201ekonkr\u00e9tn\u00ed dce\u0159inou spole\u010dnost ve vztahu k Rosn\u011bfti\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Goyal:\u00a0<\/span>\u201eM\u00e1me tak\u00e9 dce\u0159inou spole\u010dnost Rosn\u011bft.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bryant, kter\u00fd se c\u00edtil viditeln\u011b nesv\u016fj, mohl jen vykoktat:\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePoj\u010fte si s n\u00e1mi promluvit.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Dvojit\u00e1 lstivost a pokrytectv\u00ed Z\u00e1padu byly ji\u017e d\u00e1vno odhaleny, ale takov\u00fd lehkov\u00e1\u017en\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k ud\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdjimek p\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm a z\u00e1rove\u0148 k nucen\u00ed ostatn\u00edch, aby se sna\u017eili naj\u00edt \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, se ve zbytku sv\u011bta neosv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed. Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry jsou USA a jejich spojenci ochotni vyvolat hlubokou nevoli hlavn\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed \u2013 nemluv\u011b o tom, \u017ee se vysm\u00edvaj\u00ed takzvan\u00e9mu \u0159\u00e1du zalo\u017een\u00e9mu na pravidlech \u2013 to v\u0161e kv\u016fli mizern\u00e9mu zisku v podob\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00fdch rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale ve h\u0159e je v\u00edc ne\u017e jen z\u00e1\u0161\u0165 a pokrytectv\u00ed. V donkichotsk\u00e9m boji proti rusk\u00e9 energii je hlub\u0161\u00ed ironie, kter\u00e1 je \u010dist\u011b ekonomick\u00e1. Z\u00e1pad ve sv\u00e9 horlivosti potrestat Rusko v podstat\u011b fouk\u00e1 v\u00edtr pod plachty zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 jsou ochotny s Moskvou obchodovat. Funguje to takto.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sankce vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed um\u011blou cenovou segmentaci na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu. Kupuj\u00edc\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed dodr\u017euj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed pravidla, plat\u00ed pr\u00e9mii, proto\u017ee vylu\u010duj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 barely, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed odm\u00edtaj\u00ed kupovat ruskou ropu, st\u00e1v\u00e1 barel s margin\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupem dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm, a proto\u017ee rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed referen\u010dn\u00edch cen. Mezit\u00edm kupuj\u00edc\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed nedodr\u017euj\u00ed pravidla a jsou neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed, z\u00edskaj\u00ed tyto barely se slevou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento rozd\u00edl samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed zadarmo. Rusko sice p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed o \u010d\u00e1st fisk\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, proto\u017ee prod\u00e1v\u00e1 pod sv\u011btov\u00fdmi cenami, ale kupuj\u00edc\u00ed si z toho odn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed zisk \u2013 v podstat\u011b jde o energetickou dotaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, sankce neodstra\u0148uj\u00ed ropu ze syst\u00e9mu, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159erozd\u011bluj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st zisku od d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f (a do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry i od Ruska samotn\u00e9ho) sm\u011brem k nov\u00fdm z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou v\u016f\u010di sankc\u00edm tolerantn\u00ed. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00edmo plat\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00edch trh\u016f), a tak p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 kupn\u00ed s\u00edly na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodnou koupit zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 barely. To znamen\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed vstupn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdhodu pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou ochotni s Ruskem obchodovat, a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed obchodovat nejsou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Evropu, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 ji\u017e nyn\u00ed jedny z nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen energi\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, je to obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9. Rusko mezit\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee pon\u011bkud prod\u011blat \u010dist\u011b finan\u010dn\u011b (i kdy\u017e ne nutn\u011b, pokud celkov\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 hladina vzroste), ale ocit\u00e1 se v centru nov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed a mechanism\u016f vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed mimo dolar, kter\u00e9 se objevuj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fd p\u0159esun bohatstv\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje mor\u00e1ln\u00ed hazard uplat\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sankc\u00ed ve sv\u011bt\u011b s omezen\u00fdmi zdroji. M\u00edsto izolace \u00fadajn\u00e9ho provinilce sankce jednodu\u0161e p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed obchodn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b, a to \u010dasto zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd naru\u0161uje relativn\u00ed postaven\u00ed sank\u010dn\u00ed koalice. Chaotick\u00fd proces p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed s\u00e1m o sob\u011b m\u016f\u017ee poskytovat prchavou iluzi \u00fasp\u011bchu, ale z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska to nen\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e1 strategie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Henryho Johnstona<\/span><\/strong> , redaktora, kter\u00fd pracoval ve finan\u010dn\u00edm sektoru v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Henry<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA se nepoda\u0159ilo odl\u00e1kat Indii od rusk\u00e9 ropy, a tak s\u00e1hly po sv\u00e9 obl\u00edben\u00e9 zbrani:…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,45,310,22,125,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90605"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90605\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}