{"id":90545,"date":"2025-10-25T00:12:20","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T22:12:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90545"},"modified":"2025-10-24T09:31:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T07:31:39","slug":"andrewe-korybko-pet-duvodu-proc-trump-opet-stupnuje-svou-pozici-vuci-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/25\/andrewe-korybko-pet-duvodu-proc-trump-opet-stupnuje-svou-pozici-vuci-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrewe Korybko: P\u011bt d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d Trump op\u011bt stup\u0148uje svou pozici v\u016f\u010di Rusku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V\u0161echny jsou zp\u016fsobeny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jeho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm (jakkoli se mo\u017en\u00e1 myln\u00fdm), \u017ee Putin nebude riskovat, \u017ee se v reakci na to nap\u011bt\u00ed vymkne kontrole.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edve se odhadovalo, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed Putina a Trumpa by tentokr\u00e1t mohlo v\u00e9st k n\u011b\u010demu hmatateln\u00e9mu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c kv\u016fli nov\u011b nalezen\u00e9mu spole\u010dn\u00e9mu z\u00e1jmu o dosa\u017een\u00ed dohody, ale pot\u00e9 Trump\u00a0<\/span>zru\u0161il budape\u0161\u0165sk\u00fd summit\u00a0<\/span><\/a>s od\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee si nemysl\u00ed, \u017ee by to st\u00e1lo za jeho \u010das. Tak\u00e9 uvalil\u00a0<\/span>na Rusko\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 sankce a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>mohl lh\u00e1t\u00a0<\/a>o tom, \u017ee neschv\u00e1lil pou\u017eit\u00ed raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu Ukrajinou. Trumpova\u00a0posledn\u00ed zm\u011bna n\u00e1zoru\u00a0<\/a>mnoh\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapila, ale zp\u011btn\u011b ji lze p\u0159ipsat n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm p\u011bti d\u016fvod\u016fm:<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Hraje o \u010das, aby donutil Putina k maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Minim\u00e1ln\u00edm c\u00edlem Ruska je z\u00edskat plnou kontrolu nad Donbasem, bez \u010deho\u017e Putin nem\u016f\u017ee\u00a0<\/span>hypoteticky zmrazit\u00a0<\/span><\/a>(nato\u017e ukon\u010dit)\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1lku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ani\u017e by si \u201eztratil tv\u00e1\u0159\u201c. Trump odm\u00edt\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>donutit Zelensk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k odchodu odtud a m\u00edsto toho v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee Putina donutit ke zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu, ani\u017e by nejprve ovl\u00e1dl Donbas, co\u017e by se rovnalo maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm. To je pro Putina st\u00e1le nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 a v\u017edycky to tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt, ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump si sv\u00e9 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed bere osobn\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e1 to vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako v\u00fdzvu sv\u00e9 autorit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00ed \u0161tv\u00e1\u010di ho op\u011bt donutili zm\u011bnit n\u00e1zor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trumpovo prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed zazn\u011blo b\u011bhem setk\u00e1n\u00ed s gener\u00e1ln\u00edm tajemn\u00edkem NATO Markem Ruttim, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00ed \u0161tv\u00e1\u010di jako on,\u00a0<\/span>Zelenskyj\u00a0<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Lindsey Graham\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a dal\u0161\u00ed ho st\u00e1le naslouchaj\u00ed. Je nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fd svou vrto\u0161ivost\u00ed a mnoz\u00ed si v\u0161imli, \u017ee m\u00e1 tendenci b\u00fdt ovlivn\u011bn posledn\u00ed osobou, kter\u00e1 s n\u00edm mluvila. Tato zvl\u00e1\u0161tnost ho \u010din\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b snadn\u011bji manipulovateln\u00fdm ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inu ostatn\u00edch, co\u017e m\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro to, jak by ur\u010dit\u00e9 lobby a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly mohly ovliv\u0148ovat politiku USA b\u011bhem jeho druh\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli eskalace bude i nad\u00e1le zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump by se nepokou\u0161el o tvrdou dohodu a nakonec by se nepoddal v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d\u016fm, kdyby skute\u010dn\u011b nev\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli eskalace mezi Ruskem a USA bude i nad\u00e1le zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1. Jeho v\u00fdpo\u010det p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee ze strany Putina nedojde k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 drtiv\u00e9 reakci, kter\u00e1 by je pak tla\u010dila k eskala\u010dn\u00edmu \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku a\u017e na vrchol. Vych\u00e1z\u00ed z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Rusko je slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e USA, a proto pod v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm tlakem ustoup\u00ed. To je nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd risk.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. <\/span><\/strong>Zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 svou strategii rozd\u011blen\u00ed a kontroly nad Eurasi\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edci rafineri\u00ed televizi NDTV\u00a0<\/span><\/a>sd\u011blili\u00a0<\/span>, \u017ee \u201etok rusk\u00e9 ropy k hlavn\u00edm indick\u00fdm zpracovatel\u016fm by m\u011bl po nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00edch klesnout t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na nulu\u201c. Pokud by se to potvrdilo, mohly by rozd\u011blit\u00a0<\/span>nov\u011b upevn\u011bn\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk Rusko-Indie-\u010c\u00edna (RIC)\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Trump by tak\u00e9 mohl o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna ud\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e, aby ho p\u0159im\u011bla omezit\u00a0<\/span>dodate\u010dn\u00e1 100% cla\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e1 j\u00ed pohrozil uvalit p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech by se st\u00e1le mohl m\u00fdlit, ale jeho posledn\u00ed eskalace ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee se st\u00e1le sna\u017e\u00ed rozd\u011blit a vl\u00e1dnout Eurasii.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Trump mo\u017en\u00e1 s\u00e1z\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna nedodr\u017e\u00ed nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna bude dodr\u017eovat nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce USA, proto\u017ee by z toho z\u00edskala t\u00edm, \u017ee by s v\u00fdraznou slevou nakupovala ve\u0161kerou ropu, kterou Rusko brzy nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopno prodat Indii. Prozat\u00edmn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed dohoda mezi \u010c\u00ednou a USA by se pak mohla zhroutit, pokud Trump uval\u00ed na \u010c\u00ednu sv\u00e1 hroz\u00edc\u00ed cla a podm\u00edn\u00ed jejich omezen\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edn\u011b bude muset zbavit rusk\u00e9 ropy. Mo\u017en\u00e1 by si v\u0161ak dokonce p\u0159\u00e1l, aby se tato p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 posloupnost ud\u00e1lost\u00ed odehr\u00e1la i proto, aby ospravedlnil urychlen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho \u201ezp\u011btn\u00e9ho obratu k (v\u00fdchodn\u00ed) Asii\u201c za \u00fa\u010delem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho omezen\u00ed \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv d\u016fvod pro op\u011btovnou eskalaci v\u016f\u010di Rusku je prim\u00e1rn\u011b zp\u016fsoben jeho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm (i kdy\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 myln\u00fdm), \u017ee Putin nebude riskovat, \u017ee se nap\u011bt\u00ed v reakci vymkne kontrole, i kdy\u017e nikdy nebude souhlasit s maxim\u00e1ln\u00edmi \u00fastupky, kter\u00e9 se od n\u011bj po\u017eaduj\u00ed. USA mohly tak\u00e9 doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, a\u0165 u\u017e spr\u00e1vn\u011b \u010di nespr\u00e1vn\u011b, \u017ee Indie je slab\u00fdm \u010dl\u00e1nkem v RIC, kter\u00fd lze donutit k rozpadu\u00a0<\/span>BRICS\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Aby bylo jasno, tato vysv\u011btlen\u00ed se nerovnaj\u00ed schv\u00e1len\u00ed, ale p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011b vysv\u011btluj\u00ed, co Trump pr\u00e1v\u011b ud\u011blal.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u0161echny jsou zp\u016fsobeny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jeho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm (jakkoli se mo\u017en\u00e1 myln\u00fdm), \u017ee Putin nebude riskovat, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85500,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90545"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90545"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90545\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90548,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90545\/revisions\/90548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85500"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}