{"id":90472,"date":"2025-10-24T00:14:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T22:14:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90472"},"modified":"2025-10-23T11:47:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T09:47:12","slug":"brian-berletic-budouci-svetovy-rad-zavisi-na-zastupne-valce-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/24\/brian-berletic-budouci-svetovy-rad-zavisi-na-zastupne-valce-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Brian Berletic: Budouc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d z\u00e1vis\u00ed na z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Postupn\u00fd postup Ruska v Donbasu z\u0159ejm\u011b formuje opera\u010dn\u00ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed posledn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linie Ukrajiny \u2013 takzvan\u00e9ho \u201epevnostn\u00edho p\u00e1su\u201c \u2013 co\u017e by mohlo rozhodnout nejen o osudu v\u00e1lky, ale i o podob\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realita rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed na Donbasu<\/span><\/h3>\n

V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech ru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji obkl\u00ed\u010duj\u00ed m\u011bsto\u00a0<\/span>Pokrovsk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ve st\u0159edn\u00edm Donbasu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0<\/span>Lymanu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Siversku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0d\u00e1le na sever .<\/span>
\nP\u0159i pohledu na r\u016fzn\u00e9 mapovac\u00ed projekty sleduj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b se objevuj\u00ed prvn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky kle\u0161\u0165ov\u00e9ho pohybu, kter\u00e9 \u2013 podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch analytik\u016f \u2013 nazna\u010duj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch opevn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u00e1s zahrnuje siln\u011b opevn\u011bn\u00e1 m\u011bstsk\u00e1 centra od\u00a0<\/span>Kostjantynivky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0po\u00a0<\/span>Kramatorsk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Slovjansk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. V t\u00e9to z\u00f3n\u011b se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nach\u00e1zej\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>tis\u00edce, mo\u017en\u00e1 i des\u00edtky tis\u00edc ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Jejich obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00fdmi silami by znamenalo katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eku pro Ukrajinu a jej\u00ed americk\u00e9 podporovatele \u2013 a vedlo by k napln\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>rusk\u00e9ho c\u00edle \u201especi\u00e1ln\u00ed operace<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b \u00fapln\u00e9ho dobyt\u00ed Donbasu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fddny a m\u011bs\u00edce rozhodnou o osudu t\u00e9to operace \u2013 jak na boji\u0161ti, tak i daleko za n\u00edm:\u00a0<\/span>strategicky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0hluboko na Ukrajin\u011b a v Rusku a\u00a0<\/span>geopoliticky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opera\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edsto fyzick\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Mnoz\u00ed si p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed ve stylu druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kdy by tankov\u00e9 a p\u011bchotn\u00ed kolony zcela obkl\u00ed\u010dily ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u0161ak sp\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>opera\u010dn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ne\u017e fyzick\u00e9 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed jednotky pokra\u010duj\u00ed v\u00a0<\/span>postupn\u00e9m postupu pod\u00e9l frontov\u00e9 linie<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, obl\u00e9haj\u00ed m\u011bsta, zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011b\u017eky proti proti\u00fatok\u016fm a br\u00e1n\u00ed se obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdmi kle\u0161\u0165ov\u00fdmi man\u00e9vry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Rusko vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my s dlouh\u00fdm doletem a drony<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, jejich\u017e kvalita i kvantita se rapidn\u011b zlep\u0161ily, k\u00a0ni\u010den\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>ukrajinsk\u00fdch z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch lini\u00ed pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 zadn\u00ed linie pevnostn\u00edho p\u00e1su.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u00a0<\/span>nevyhnuteln\u00fdm p\u00e1dem Pokrovska<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a rusk\u00fdm postupem na\u00a0<\/span>Lyman<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0se prakticky v\u0161echny z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy mezi t\u011bmito body nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v dosahu rusk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>FPV a optick\u00fdch dron\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Pokrovska a vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed frontov\u00e1 linie z\u00e1padn\u011b od Kostjantynivky ji\u017e ohrozily logistiku m\u011bsta. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce se rusk\u00e1 kontrola v t\u00e9to oblasti upevn\u00ed, t\u00edm efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed budou \u00fatoky dron\u016f na\u00a0<\/span>Kramatorsk a Slovjansk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, zejm\u00e9na pokud rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly budou postupovat sou\u010dasn\u011b ze severu na jih.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm pevn\u011bji se tato kle\u0161t\u011b sev\u0159ou, t\u00edm efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je opera\u010dn\u00ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed \u2013 a t\u00edm nejist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>se<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0st\u00e1vaj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 pozice mezi nimi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/h3>\n

Rusko nemus\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Pokrovsk nebo Kramatorsk fyzicky kompletn\u011b obkl\u00ed\u010dit\u00a0, aby prolomilo jejich obranu. Opera\u010dn\u00ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed je je\u0161t\u011b\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, proto\u017ee nut\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele nasazovat st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1lohy do beznad\u011bjn\u00e9 situace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko nevede v\u00e1lku o p\u0159esun, ale\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1lku o vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 s c\u00edlem\u00a0<\/span>demilitarizovat<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du , nikoli co nejrychleji dob\u00fdt \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychl\u00fd postup k Dn\u011bpru by byl riskantn\u00ed a p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil by zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky k\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1sobovac\u00edm lini\u00edm NATO<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Rusko m\u00edsto toho nut\u00ed Ukrajinu\u00a0<\/span>opakovan\u011b pos\u00edlat sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a techniku \u200b\u200bna stejnou frontovou linii<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kde jsou systematicky ni\u010deny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed reakce \u2013 na boji\u0161ti i za jeho hranicemi<\/span><\/h3>\n

Dokonce i z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia nyn\u00ed uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko vede tuto\u00a0<\/span>vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>rozhodn\u011b v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 a \u017ee USA a Evropa\u00a0<\/span>j\u00ed jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed mohou vojensky \u010delit<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto Washington a Brusel prosazuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 de facto\u00a0<\/span>\u201eMinsk 3.0\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 aby z\u00edskaly \u010das\u00a0<\/span>na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdroby zbran\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>obnovu ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, jak to ud\u011blaly po prvn\u00edch minsk\u00fdch dohod\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a jeho pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy nut\u00ed USA k\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00e9 eskalaci v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>jej\u00edmu p\u0159esunu na jin\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 s vyu\u017eit\u00edm ekonomick\u00e9ho a diplomatick\u00e9ho tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z p\u0159\u00edklad\u016f je\u00a0<\/span>hrozba dod\u00e1vek\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Tomahawk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0. I kdy\u017e by to nerozhodlo o v\u00e1lce, donutilo by Rusko\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159esunout svou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu d\u00e1le do vnitrozem\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e by zpomalilo operace na frontov\u00e9 linii. Mohlo by to tak\u00e9 umo\u017enit c\u00edlen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatoky na ruskou obrannou a energetickou infrastrukturu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 USA zvy\u0161uj\u00ed tlak na\u00a0<\/span>obchodn\u00ed partnery<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ruska , zejm\u00e9na\u00a0<\/span>Indii a \u010c\u00ednu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>sankc\u00ed a represivn\u00edch cel<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00edl: Indie a \u010c\u00edna si mus\u00ed vybrat mezi\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00fdmi trhy a dolarov\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/span>obchodem s Ruskem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Pokud by ob\u011b zem\u011b podlehly tlaku USA, Rusko by bylo ekonomicky izolovan\u00e9 a oslaben\u00e9 \u2013 co\u017e by zase dohnalo\u00a0<\/span>Indii a \u010c\u00ednu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0do izolace, co\u017e je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem americk\u00e9 strategie zpomalen\u00ed jak\u00e9hokoli vznikaj\u00edc\u00edho rivala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud Indie a \u010c\u00edna z\u016fstanou neochv\u011bjn\u00e9, americk\u00e1 sank\u010dn\u00ed politika kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b po\u0161kod\u00ed v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany, ale dlouhodob\u011b urychl\u00ed p\u0159echod k\u00a0<\/span>multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu ekonomick\u00e9mu \u0159\u00e1du<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed d\u016fsledek: Zem\u011b jako Indie a \u010c\u00edna se mus\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>odd\u011blit od americk\u00e9ho dolaru a z\u00e1padn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 proces, kter\u00fd za\u010dal ji\u017e d\u00e1vno s\u00a0<\/span>iniciativami BRICS<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Tlak USA je tedy\u00a0<\/span>kontraproduktivn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0: Urychluje rozvoj\u00a0<\/span>nez\u00e1padn\u00edch alternativ<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>SWIFTu a dolaru<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: V\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b jako kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd moment nov\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du<\/span><\/h3>\n

Bitva o pevnostn\u00ed p\u00e1s Donbasu je\u00a0<\/span>mikrokosmem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00e9 z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Rusku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 pomalu se rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edho, ale strategicky v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek t\u00e9to operace pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ur\u010d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>celkov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span>
\nNav\u00edc americk\u00fd posun od vojensk\u00e9ho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed ke\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lce<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ukazuje , \u017ee tento konflikt byl\u00a0<\/span>od za\u010d\u00e1tku sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mnohem \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 strategie<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na eliminaci soupe\u0159\u016f a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vlastn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce budou proto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 nejen pro v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 pro\u00a0<\/span>budouc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm konfliktu, kter\u00fd USA dlouhodob\u011b vedou\u00a0<\/span>nejen proti Rusku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, ale proti\u00a0<\/span>cel\u00e9mu multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu sv\u011btu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Brian Berletic je geopolitick\u00fd analytik a autor \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v Bangkoku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Postupn\u00fd postup Ruska v Donbasu z\u0159ejm\u011b formuje opera\u010dn\u00ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed posledn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 linie Ukrajiny \u2013…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10077,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[22,2190,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90472"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90472\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}