{"id":90423,"date":"2025-10-23T00:21:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T22:21:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90423"},"modified":"2025-10-22T12:26:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T10:26:19","slug":"andrew-korybko-nemecko-z-nejnovejsiho-energetickeho-kroku-eu-pravdepodobne-prohraje-zatimco-polsko-ziska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/23\/andrew-korybko-nemecko-z-nejnovejsiho-energetickeho-kroku-eu-pravdepodobne-prohraje-zatimco-polsko-ziska\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: N\u011bmecko z nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho kroku EU pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prohraje, zat\u00edmco Polsko z\u00edsk\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee role Polska v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed americk\u00e9ho LNG do st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy naru\u0161\u00ed vliv N\u011bmecka v tomto regionu a urychl\u00ed obnoven\u00ed ztracen\u00e9ho statusu velmoci Polska.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 rada\u00a0<\/span>rozhodla\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee dovoz rusk\u00e9ho plynu bude v cel\u00e9m bloku v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce zak\u00e1z\u00e1n, ale s r\u016fzn\u011b dlouh\u00fdmi odkladn\u00fdmi obdob\u00edmi pro zem\u011b s kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdmi a dlouhodob\u00fdmi smlouvami, z nich\u017e nejdel\u0161\u00ed potrv\u00e1 do 1. ledna 2028. Rada\u00a0<\/span>d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159ipustila\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee plyn z plynovod\u016f a LNG dohromady tvo\u0159ily v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u011btinu dovozu bloku. Je t\u0159eba tak\u00e9 zm\u00ednit, \u017ee EU nad\u00e1le dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ruskou ropu, a to i nep\u0159\u00edmo, co\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo jako\u00a0<\/span>podobn\u011b skand\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1ny EU na postupn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u011btiny dovozu plynu z Ruska nicm\u00e9n\u011b d\u00e1le oslab\u00ed jej\u00ed ekonomiku t\u00edm, \u017ee povede k jeho nahrazen\u00ed dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm americk\u00fdm LNG, co\u017e p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b povede k p\u0159enesen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na spot\u0159ebitele. To bylo tak\u00e9 zcela p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9, jeliko\u017e EU souhlasila s\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1kupem americk\u00fdch energi\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 750 miliard dolar\u016f do roku 2028\u00a0<\/span><\/a>podle podm\u00ednek sv\u00e9 jednostrann\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohody z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho l\u00e9ta, kter\u00e1 byla\u00a0<\/span>zde vyhodnocena\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jako dohoda, je\u017e z EU ud\u011blala nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho vazalsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu USA v historii.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee N\u011bmecko bude t\u00edmto v\u00fdvojem nejv\u00edce ovlivn\u011bno, pokud jde o jeho dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiku a geostrategii. Pokud jde o prvn\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b zp\u016fsoben\u00fd n\u00e1klady na dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed americk\u00fd LNG, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed na spot\u0159ebitele, by mohl\u00a0<\/span>urychlit vzestup AfD\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e by vedlo k v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm politick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m, pokud by se jim n\u011bkdy poda\u0159ilo sestavit vl\u00e1du. I kdyby se jim nepoda\u0159ilo dostat se k moci, takov\u00e9 do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed elit by mohlo zhor\u0161it politickou polarizaci a souvisej\u00edc\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o n\u011bmeckou geostrategii, Polsko, s n\u00edm\u017e N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/span>soupe\u0159\u00ed o vliv\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b (SVE), se chyst\u00e1 hr\u00e1t\u00a0<\/span>dopl\u0148kovou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>roli\u00a0<\/a>v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch americk\u00e9ho LNG\u00a0do \u010ceska a Slovenska\u00a0<\/a>prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm\u00a0termin\u00e1lu \u015awinouj\u015bcie\u00a0<\/a>a pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho termin\u00e1lu v Gda\u0148sku. Dod\u00e1vky budou sm\u011b\u0159ovat i na\u00a0Ukrajinu\u00a0<\/a>. Tyto zem\u011b le\u017e\u00ed ve sf\u00e9\u0159e vlivu, kterou Polsko hodl\u00e1 vytvo\u0159it po\u00a0obnoven\u00ed sv\u00e9ho ztracen\u00e9ho statusu velmoci\u00a0<\/a>. \u010cesko a Slovensko jsou spolu s Polskem tak\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Visegr\u00e1dsk\u00e9 skupiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ma\u010farsko je tak\u00e9 \u010dlenem a mohlo by b\u00fdt z\u00e1sobov\u00e1no americk\u00fdm LNG p\u0159es Polsko nebo chorvatsk\u00fd termin\u00e1l na Krku, jeho\u017e\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>je jedn\u00edm z prioritn\u00edch projekt\u016f \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Iniciativy t\u0159\u00ed mo\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c (3SI), kterou Polsko a Chorvatsko spole\u010dn\u011b zalo\u017eily v roce 2015, ale nyn\u00ed ji vede Var\u0161ava. Zat\u00edmco N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv na st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu, proto\u017ee je de facto l\u00eddrem EU a py\u0161n\u00ed se svou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomikou, vliv Polska na tyto zem\u011b se zvy\u0161uje d\u00edky jeho budouc\u00ed roli v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch americk\u00e9ho LNG, co\u017e by je jednoho dne mohlo odtrhnout od Berl\u00edna.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energetick\u00e1 geopolitika hraje v geostrategii v\u00fdznamnou roli, tak\u017ee dopad v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho trendu by nem\u011bl b\u00fdt podce\u0148ov\u00e1n, pokud se bude d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjet. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by zast\u0159e\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm trendem byl pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd pokles n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho vlivu ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, k \u010demu\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bla dobrovoln\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dast N\u011bmecka na americk\u00e9m protirusk\u00e9m sank\u010dn\u00edm re\u017eimu a n\u00e1sledn\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>teroristick\u00fd \u00fatok na Nord Stream\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00fd ho posunul za bod, odkud nen\u00ed n\u00e1vratu. S odstupem \u010dasu by se na to dalo pohl\u00ed\u017eet jako na za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du ve st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco N\u011bmecko si myslelo, \u017ee Rusku zp\u016fsob\u00ed strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku, USA mu ji nakonec zp\u016fsobily t\u00edm, \u017ee vytvo\u0159ily okolnosti, za nich\u017e by ekonomika jeho jedin\u00e9ho z\u00e1padn\u00edho konkurenta\u00a0<\/span>upadla\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Spolu s Polskem, jeho\u017e angloamerick\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed jeho statusu velmoci pohodln\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed kl\u00edn mezi N\u011bmeckem a Ruskem, USA geostrategicky p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed Evropu na \u00fakor N\u011bmecka, aby usnadnily rusk\u00e9 poukrajinsk\u00e9 zdr\u017eenlivost.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee role Polska v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho mno\u017estv\u00ed americk\u00e9ho LNG do st\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90424,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,285,41,84,1008,31],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90423"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90423\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90424"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}