{"id":90355,"date":"2025-10-22T00:34:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T22:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90355"},"modified":"2025-10-21T18:34:19","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T16:34:19","slug":"arnaud-bertrand-jak-dlouho-muze-cina-hrat-kartu-vzacnych-zemin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/22\/arnaud-bertrand-jak-dlouho-muze-cina-hrat-kartu-vzacnych-zemin\/","title":{"rendered":"Arnaud Bertrand: Jak dlouho m\u016f\u017ee \u010c\u00edna hr\u00e1t kartu vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Toto je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka na sv\u011bt\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f:\u00a0<\/span>Jak dlouho m\u016f\u017ee \u010c\u00edna hr\u00e1t kartu vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed je v\u0161eobecn\u011b zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee to d\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010c\u00edn\u011b zna\u010dn\u00fd vliv. Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fkaz\u016f je panick\u00fd stav americk\u00e9ho ministra financ\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Bessenta<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0v posledn\u00edch dnech: Ve\u0159ejn\u011b urazil vysok\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele za tyto \u010diny, po\u017eadoval \u201emimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 pravomoci\u201c a popsal to jako \u00fatok \u010c\u00edny na \u201esv\u011bt\u201c, kter\u00fd by vyvolal \u201ekomplexn\u00ed spole\u010dnou reakci\u201c USA a jejich spojenc\u016f. Pokud to nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mka nervozity ve Washingtonu, pak nev\u00edm, co je.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161eobecn\u00fd konsenzus \u2013 \u010detl jsem to u\u017e nes\u010detn\u011bkr\u00e1t \u2013 je, \u017ee jednou z hlavn\u00edch v\u00fdzev k prolomen\u00ed tohoto monopolu jsou\u00a0<\/span>environment\u00e1ln\u00ed regulace<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Tvrd\u00ed se, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad se z obchodu s vz\u00e1cn\u00fdmi zeminami vymanil zaveden\u00edm environment\u00e1ln\u00edch norem, kter\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna jednodu\u0161e ignorovala. V d\u016fsledku toho je pot\u0159eba pouze spr\u00e1vn\u00fdch regula\u010dn\u00edch zm\u011bn a vl\u00e1dn\u00edch dotac\u00ed a probl\u00e9m bude \u0159e\u0161iteln\u00fd b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let \u2013 ot\u00e1zka politick\u00e9 v\u016fle p\u0159ijmout environment\u00e1ln\u00ed kompromisy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na tom je n\u011bco pravdy \u2013 t\u011b\u017eba vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt skute\u010dn\u011b velmi \u0161kodliv\u00e1 pro \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u2013 ale tento n\u00e1zor je\u00a0<\/span>jen magick\u00fd<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prolomit \u010d\u00ednskou dominanci je mnohem,\u00a0<\/span>mnohem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pouh\u00e1 \u00faprava environment\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159edpis\u016f. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 hegemonie je mnohem \u00fa\u017eeji spjata s\u00a0<\/span>rozsahem jej\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>vertik\u00e1ln\u00ed integrac\u00ed jej\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Prolomen\u00ed t\u011bchto struktur by vy\u017eadovalo\u00a0<\/span>komplexn\u00ed reindustrializaci<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Z\u00e1padu \u2013 kompletn\u00ed p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed socioekonomick\u00e9 struktury, investice dosahuj\u00edc\u00ed bilion\u016f s n\u00e1vratnost\u00ed investic mo\u017en\u00e1 za dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed \u2013 a z\u00e1sadn\u00ed reformu vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Zkr\u00e1tka\u00a0<\/span>genera\u010dn\u00ed projekt<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0historick\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkdo by mohl b\u00fdt v poku\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159irovnat\u00a0po\u017eadovan\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed k\u00a0<\/span>projektu Manhattan<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/span>programu Apollo \u2013 dost p\u016fsobiv\u00e9, \u017ee? \u2013 ale to by bylo obrovsk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>podcen\u011bn\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Toto \u00fasil\u00ed je sp\u00ed\u0161e srovnateln\u00e9 se\u00a0<\/span>samotnou industrializac\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ne\u017e s jak\u00fdmkoli jednotliv\u00fdm megaprojektem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u0161 mi? Ur\u010dit\u011b p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u00edm! Tak dramatick\u00e9 to b\u00fdt nem\u016f\u017ee!<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto jsem napsal tento \u010dl\u00e1nek \u2013 abych podrobn\u011b demonstroval, jak obrovsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed by bylo vynalo\u017een\u00e9 na znovuz\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed kontroly pouze nad\u00a0<\/span>jedn\u00edm prvkem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m seznamu kontrolovan\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu \u2013\u00a0<\/span>galiem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. A nezapome\u0148te: Toto je pouze\u00a0<\/span>jeden<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0z 21 chemick\u00fdch prvk\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pod kontrolou \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b navazuj\u00edc\u00edch produkt\u016f (lithium-iontov\u00e9 baterie, supertvrd\u00e9 materi\u00e1ly atd.).<\/span><\/p>\n

Po p\u0159e\u010dten\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku se v\u00e1m Bessentova panika pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude zd\u00e1t t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ne\u0161kodn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co je galium?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Gallium nen\u00ed prvek vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin, ale m\u011bkk\u00fd, st\u0159\u00edb\u0159it\u00fd kov, kter\u00fd by se v\u00e1m za tepl\u00e9ho dne doslova roztavil v ruce. P\u0159esto je to jeden ze strategicky nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch materi\u00e1l\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b, proto\u017ee mimo jin\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1klad modern\u00edch polovodi\u010d\u016f GaN<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00fdch radar\u016f AESA<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed detekovat c\u00edle na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvojn\u00e1sobnou vzd\u00e1lenost. Vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk spole\u010dnosti Raytheon v roce 2023 uvedl: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>GaN je z\u00e1kladem t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech modern\u00edch obrann\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u00edme.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna kontroluje\u00a0<\/span>98 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce prim\u00e1rn\u00edho galia s n\u00edzkou \u010distotou<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 prakticky cel\u00fd trh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co by bylo pot\u0159eba k v\u00fdrob\u011b 100 tun galia?<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010c\u00edna produkuje 600 tun galia ro\u010dn\u011b s kapacitou 750 tun. Tak\u017ee mluv\u00edme o produkci m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>17 %<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0tohoto mno\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gallium se \u201enet\u011b\u017e\u00ed\u201c, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e se extrahuje jako\u00a0<\/span>vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b hlin\u00edku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Bez masivn\u00edho hlin\u00edk\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd praktick\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak galium extrahovat \u2013 je to jako esenci\u00e1ln\u00ed olej v pomeran\u010dov\u00e9 k\u016f\u0159e: Nem\u016f\u017eete ho z\u00edskat bez tov\u00e1rny na \u0161\u0165\u00e1vu, kter\u00e1 zpracov\u00e1v\u00e1 miliony pomeran\u010d\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2022 zpracovala\u00a0spole\u010dnost\u00a0<\/span>China Aluminum Corporation (Chalco)\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>17,64 milionu tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0oxidu hlinit\u00e9ho na\u00a0<\/span>6,88 milionu tun hlin\u00edku<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a vyt\u011b\u017eila z n\u011bj\u00a0<\/span>146 tun galia<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 v pom\u011bru p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>1:47 000<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

K v\u00fdrob\u011b 100 tun galia by bylo zapot\u0159eb\u00ed 4,7 milionu tun hlin\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>ro\u010dn\u011b<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, USA v roce 2023 vyprodukovaly pouze\u00a0<\/span>0,8 milionu tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, zat\u00edmco Indie\u00a0<\/span>3,5 milionu tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e jedin\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA by musely \u0161estin\u00e1sobn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0svou kapacitu\u00a0, aby mohly vyprodukovat 100 tun galia.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdstavba nov\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>rafineri\u00ed oxidu hlinit\u00e9ho<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>hlin\u00edk\u00e1ren<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0by st\u00e1la p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>30 miliard USD<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(20 miliard USD pro hut\u011b, 10 miliard USD pro rafinerie).<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka energie<\/span><\/h3>\n

V\u00fdroba hlin\u00edku je extr\u00e9mn\u011b energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1: p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>13 000\u201315 000 kWh na tunu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span>
\nDodate\u010dn\u00e1 kapacita 3,9 milionu tun by vy\u017eadovala\u00a0<\/span>51 miliard kWh<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0ro\u010dn\u011b \u2013 24 hodin denn\u011b, 7 dn\u00ed v t\u00fddnu, 365 dn\u00ed v roce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: Americk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny\u00a0<\/span>Vogtle 3 a 4<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0v Georgii (2,2 GW) vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>17\u201318 miliard kWh<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span>
\nK v\u00fdrob\u011b 51 miliard kWh by byly zapot\u0159eb\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159i projekty Vogtle<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 tedy\u00a0<\/span>\u0161est nov\u00fdch reaktor\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1klady: T\u0159et\u00ed a \u010dtvrt\u00fd blok jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny Vogtle nakonec st\u00e1ly\u00a0<\/span>36,8 miliardy USD<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(m\u00edsto p\u016fvodn\u00edch 14 miliard USD). T\u0159i takov\u00e9 projekty =\u00a0<\/span>110 miliard USD<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0plus 30 miliard USD na tov\u00e1rny =\u00a0<\/span>celkov\u00e1 investice 140 miliard USD<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Harmonogram: Stavba za\u010dala v roce 2013, uveden\u00ed do provozu v roce 2024 \u2013 co\u017e je\u00a0<\/span>obdob\u00ed 11 let<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. T\u0159i paraleln\u00ed projekty by realisticky m\u011bly b\u00fdt dokon\u010deny\u00a0<\/span>do let 2035\u20132036<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

A to v\u0161e\u00a0proto, aby se dos\u00e1hlo\u00a0<\/span>17 % \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 produkce galia \u2013\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>jednoho z 21 prvk\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lidsk\u00fd faktor<\/span><\/h3>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty od roku 1979 ztratily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>7 milion\u016f pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v pr\u016fmyslu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b mnoha kvalifikovan\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f.<\/span>
\nZpracov\u00e1n\u00ed hlin\u00edku je n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 na pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu: Chalco zam\u011bstn\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>58 000 lid\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0na v\u00fdrobu\u00a0<\/span>6,88 milionu tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0hlin\u00edku.<\/span><\/p>\n

To odpov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>8 500 zam\u011bstnanc\u016fm na 1 milion tun<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee USA by\u00a0pro dodate\u010dnou kapacitu pot\u0159ebovaly\u00a0<\/span>nejm\u00e9n\u011b 33 000 nov\u00fdch kvalifikovan\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f \u2013 plus\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>2 400 jadern\u00fdch specialist\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0pro reaktory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkem to znamen\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 35 500 kvalifikovan\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 v zemi, kter\u00e1 by do roku 2033 m\u011bla ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>1,9 milionu voln\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v pr\u016fmyslu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd ekosyst\u00e9m<\/span><\/h3>\n

I s pen\u011bzi, technologiemi a pracovn\u00edky Z\u00e1pad postr\u00e1d\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>pr\u016fmyslovou infrastrukturu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n