{"id":90221,"date":"2025-10-20T09:05:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T07:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90221"},"modified":"2025-10-20T09:05:03","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T07:05:03","slug":"stephen-bryen-jakekoli-primeri-trump-a-putin-se-dohodli-na-brzkem-setkani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/20\/stephen-bryen-jakekoli-primeri-trump-a-putin-se-dohodli-na-brzkem-setkani\/","title":{"rendered":"Stephen Bryen: Jak\u00e9koli p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed! Trump a Putin se dohodli na brzk\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump a rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin vedli ve \u010dtvrtek telefonick\u00fd rozhovor. Dohodli se na brzk\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v ma\u010farsk\u00e9 Budape\u0161ti. Trump ozna\u010dil telefon\u00e1t za \u201evelmi produktivn\u00ed\u201c. Oba l\u00edd\u0159i se dohodli, \u017ee se uskute\u010dn\u00ed setk\u00e1n\u00ed na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v t\u00fddnu od 20. \u0159\u00edjna. Podle prezidenta Trumpa budou prvn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed za USA v\u00e9st ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi osobami, kter\u00e9 budou je\u0161t\u011b jmenov\u00e1ny.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Prezident Trump vyzval k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b a ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky v t\u00e9to zemi. \u010clenov\u00e9 Trumpova kabinetu uvedli, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed \u201ejak\u00e9koli p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>Volba slov je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1. Rusov\u00e9 uvedli, \u017ee bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by Ukrajin\u011b umo\u017enilo nav\u00fd\u0161it z\u00e1soby zbran\u00ed a naverbovat v\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f pro boji\u0161t\u011b. Tot\u00e9\u017e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b plat\u00ed i pro Rusko.<\/p>\n<p>Jak\u00e9 podm\u00ednky by v\u0161ak byly pro Putina a Trumpa p\u0159ijateln\u00e9? Trump chce zastaven\u00ed boj\u016f. To je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod, proto\u017ee nejde jen o boje arm\u00e1dn\u00edch jednotek na zemi. Jedn\u00e1 se tak\u00e9 o \u00fatoky na \u00fazem\u00ed druh\u00e9 strany. Rusov\u00e9 vytrvale \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na kritickou infrastrukturu Ukrajiny a n\u011bkter\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle. Stejn\u011b tak Ukrajina pomoc\u00ed dron\u016f a syst\u00e9m\u016f jako Himars \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na ruskou infrastrukturu, v\u010detn\u011b rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, elektr\u00e1ren, \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edch trat\u00ed a vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, jako jsou leti\u0161t\u011b a radarov\u00e9 stanice. Je logick\u00e9, \u017ee ob\u011b strany by musely zastavit vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 \u00fatoky tohoto druhu.<\/p>\n<p>Rusov\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o tranzit ropy a plynu a z\u00e1kazn\u00edky. Trump vybral tento sektor, aby vyvinul tlak na ruskou vl\u00e1du, proto\u017ee si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika nem\u016f\u017ee udr\u017eet v\u00e1lku bez p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f. Trump je v pozici, kdy m\u016f\u017ee vym\u011bnit n\u011bkter\u00e9 nebo v\u0161echny sankce (a zapojit do rovnice Evropu) za zastaven\u00ed boj\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Oba l\u00edd\u0159i op\u011bt diskutovali o ekonomick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci po skon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n<p>Pokrok Ruska ve v\u00e1lce je minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, hlavn\u011b d\u00edky intenzivn\u00edmu vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed dron\u016f Ukrajinou a jej\u00ed schopnosti kl\u00e1st odpor. Dnes Rusko kontroluje asi 95 % Luhansku, 70 % Don\u011bcku a \u010d\u00e1sti Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a Chersonu. Rusko m\u00e1 plnou kontrolu nad Krymem a je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee minim\u00e1ln\u00ed ruskou po\u017eadavkou je ur\u010dit\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto \u00fazem\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na Krymu.<\/p>\n<p>Existuje mnoho mo\u017en\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla vy\u0159e\u0161it konflikt mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem. Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve poznamenal, n\u011bkter\u00e9 nebo v\u0161echny oblasti anektovan\u00e9 Ruskem by se mohly prom\u011bnit v dlouhodob\u00e9 n\u00e1jemn\u00ed smlouvy, podobn\u011b jako status Hongkongu, kter\u00fd byl 99 let v n\u00e1jmu od \u010c\u00edny a byl dr\u017een Brity (dokud se z komer\u010dn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f nevzdali a neode\u0161li p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b). \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed tohoto typu by mohlo v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu p\u0159in\u00e9st Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159\u00edjmy (n\u00e1jemn\u00e9 za pozemky, cla atd.) a umo\u017enit ukrajinsk\u00fdm politik\u016fm tvrdit, \u017ee Rusku \u201eneodstoupili\u201c \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Na m\u00edst\u011b je t\u0159eba odd\u011blit protich\u016fdn\u00e9 s\u00edly, aby se sn\u00ed\u017eilo riziko poru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v d\u016fsledku poru\u0161en\u00ed dohody. Vzhledem k rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch a ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil existuj\u00ed probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 bude t\u0159eba vy\u0159e\u0161it, pokud to bude mo\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159\u00edtomnost NATO tak\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku pro Moskvu. Zat\u00edmco v\u00e1lka sama o sob\u011b je p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b \u00fazemn\u00ed, hlubok\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed NATO, kter\u00e9 dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zbran\u011b, zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace, poradce, oper\u00e1tory a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vojenskou strategii, znepokojuje Rusko, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1le pova\u017euje NATO za silnou nep\u0159\u00e1telskou s\u00edlu. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e do v\u00e1lky vstoupily rusk\u00e9 invazn\u00ed jednotky, se Rusko i NATO p\u0159ipravovaly na boj.<\/p>\n<p>Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 pon\u011bkud p\u0159ece\u0148uj\u00ed schopnosti NATO, ale d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee tvrd\u011b a nekompromisn\u011b trvaj\u00ed na tom, \u017ee NATO vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako hrozbu pro svou nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed stranu. Jak lze tuto situaci zm\u011bnit, pokud je to v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9?<\/p>\n<p>Z \u010dist\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho a obrann\u00e9ho hlediska, navzdory zapojen\u00ed NATO na Ukrajin\u011b, neexistuj\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny NATO. Na druhou stranu neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 dohoda, \u017ee v budoucnu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nebudou. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je bl\u00edzkost rusk\u00fdch hranic a n\u011bkter\u00fdch z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst, stejn\u011b jako strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen.<\/p>\n<p>Rusko m\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b velk\u00fd po\u010det vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, kter\u00e9 jsou vystaveny mo\u017en\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm Ukrajiny\/NATO.<\/p>\n<p>Jedn\u00e1 se o:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Ji\u017en\u00ed vojensk\u00fd okruh<\/b>\u00a0rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy: Velitelstv\u00ed se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v Rostov\u011b na Donu.<\/li>\n<li><b>Rostovsk\u00e1 a Kursk\u00e1 oblast<\/b>: Jedn\u00e1 se o kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 oblasti pro rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace, kde jsou rozm\u00edst\u011bny s\u00edly a tak\u00e9 na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b hranice na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/li>\n<li><b>Pohrani\u010dn\u00ed regiony<\/b>: Rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou soust\u0159ed\u011bny pod\u00e9l hranice s Ukrajinou, zejm\u00e9na v oblastech jako Belgorod a Voron\u011b\u017e, kde jsou p\u0159ipraveny k operac\u00edm.<\/li>\n<li><b>Leteck\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny<\/b>: Rusko m\u00e1 n\u011bkolik leteck\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen v bl\u00edzkosti Ukrajiny, v\u010detn\u011b z\u00e1kladen v Belgorodu a Millerov\u011b, kter\u00e9 slou\u017e\u00ed k prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed leteck\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f a pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch mis\u00ed.<\/li>\n<li><b>N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny<\/b>: Krom\u011b Sevastopolu m\u00e1 Rusko dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny v oblasti \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a Azovsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e.<\/li>\n<li><b>V\u00fdcvikov\u00e1 a logistick\u00e1 centra<\/b>: Rusko vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00fdcvikov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a logistick\u00e1 centra ve sv\u00fdch pohrani\u010dn\u00edch oblastech k podpo\u0159e sv\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Rusov\u00e9 nezapomn\u011bli, \u017ee NATO pom\u00e1halo pl\u00e1novat \u00fatoky ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na Kursk, kter\u00e9 Rusov\u00e9 ne\u010dekali.<\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u0161echny tyto z\u00e1kladny, opera\u010dn\u00ed a velitelsk\u00e1 centra se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Ruska, je pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee zbran\u011b NATO mohou b\u00fdt pou\u017eity proti nim, zejm\u00e9na po n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 katastrof\u011b v Kursku. Lze dodat, \u017ee nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e1 m\u011bsta, Moskva a Petrohrad, se tak\u00e9 nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v dosahu zbran\u00ed dod\u00e1van\u00fdch NATO.<\/p>\n<p>Jedno \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z my\u0161lenky dnes ji\u017e neplatn\u00e9 Smlouvy o raket\u00e1ch st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu (INF). V t\u00e9to dohod\u011b se USA a Rusko dohodly na sta\u017een\u00ed a likvidaci ur\u010dit\u00fdch zbran\u00ed (SS20, Pershing II). Stejn\u00fd druh dohody by mohl b\u00fdt uzav\u0159en ohledn\u011b p\u0159\u00edtomnosti a um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, v\u010detn\u011b HIMARS (ATACMS) a Tomahawk a dal\u0161\u00edch raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch dron\u016f; Rusov\u00e9 by odstranili Iskandery (K a M), Kinzhal, Kalibr, Kh-101 a Tsirkon, mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 Oreshnik. Mezi dal\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my pat\u0159\u00ed Storm Shadow (Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie) a Neptune (Ukrajina).<\/p>\n<p>Komplexn\u00ed dohoda by zahrnovala tak\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 drony dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, jako jsou ukrajinsk\u00e9 Liutyi, FP-1, Beaver a UJ-25 a rusk\u00e9 Geran-2, Orion a Inokhodets.<\/p>\n<p>D\u016fsledkem omezen\u00ed portfolia \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed je vytvo\u0159en\u00ed vhodn\u00e9 n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, kter\u00e1 je nezbytn\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 je prezentov\u00e1no jako p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1pady na slo\u017eky jak\u00e9hosi p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohlo b\u00fdt p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 pro Moskvu a Washington. Ukrajina by tak\u00e9 musela souhlasit, stejn\u011b jako evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v prvn\u00ed linii (nap\u0159. Francie, N\u011bmecko, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie a Polsko). Trump by musel tento bal\u00ed\u010dek prodat v\u0161em t\u011bmto hr\u00e1\u010d\u016fm, co\u017e je zna\u010dn\u00e1 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n<p>Ale pokud to strany budou cht\u00edt, lze dos\u00e1hnout jak\u00e9hosi p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"podcarou\">\n<p>\u200b<a href=\"https:\/\/weapons.substack.com\/p\/any-sort-of-ceasefire\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">Any Sort of Ceasefire<\/a> vy\u0161el 16.10.2025 na weapons.substack.com. P\u0159eklad <a href=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/komentare\/2025\/10\/10735-jakekoli-primeri.htm\">Zv\u011bdavec<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump a rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin vedli ve \u010dtvrtek telefonick\u00fd rozhovor. Dohodli&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4199,102,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90221"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}