{"id":90099,"date":"2025-10-18T00:24:31","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T22:24:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90099"},"modified":"2025-10-17T18:48:51","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T16:48:51","slug":"uriel-araujo-umira-skupina-quad-nebo-je-jen-outsourcovana-k-boji-s-cinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/18\/uriel-araujo-umira-skupina-quad-nebo-je-jen-outsourcovana-k-boji-s-cinou\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Um\u00edr\u00e1 skupina Quad, nebo je jen outsourcov\u00e1na k boji s \u010c\u00ednou?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Trumpovo omezov\u00e1n\u00ed v r\u00e1mci strategie Amerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b vypr\u00e1zdn\u00ed \u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd konflikt a pos\u00edl\u00ed p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se indicko-pacifick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, zat\u00edmco obchodn\u00ed spory dr\u00e1\u017ed\u00ed spojence, jako je Indie. Ne\u00fanavn\u00fd tlak USA na \u010c\u00ednu, umocn\u011bn\u00fd prodejem raket AUKUS a raket, v\u0161ak zaru\u010duje eskalaci \u2013 dostate\u010dn\u011b nevyzpytatelnou na to, aby se \u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd konflikt mohl uprost\u0159ed krize vr\u00e1tit.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dialog \u2013 neboli \u201eQuad\u201c \u2013 je ji\u017e dlouho vychvalov\u00e1n jako z\u00e1rodek \u201e\u00a0<\/span>asijsk\u00e9ho NATO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c. \u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd dialog, slo\u017een\u00fd z USA, Japonska, Indie a Austr\u00e1lie, je pro Washington velk\u00fdm l\u00e1kadlem pro indicko-pacifick\u00fd region. Vzhledem k p\u0159\u00edstupu americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c se v\u0161ak mnoz\u00ed ptaj\u00ed, zda m\u00e1 tato skupina budoucnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pod tlakem Trumpovy neo-monroeistick\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky a jeho stylu uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed dohod se spojenci se QUAD rychle vytr\u00e1c\u00ed. Analytici jako Michael Shoebridge (\u0159editel Strategic Analysis Australia) jej\u00a0<\/span>naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201eneuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm se Quadem\u201c: nap\u0159\u00edklad prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed jeho ministr\u016f z \u010dervence 2025 se zredukovalo na v\u00e1gn\u00ed \u0159e\u010di o n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a kybernetick\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch a opustilo podstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sliby z Bidenovy doby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Du Lan (z\u00e1stupce \u0159editele Asijsko-pacifick\u00e9ho institutu) poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Washington se \u201esoust\u0159edil p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na dom\u00e1c\u00ed reformy a ukon\u010den\u00ed konflikt\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b a bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho konfliktu\u201c s \u201emalou snahou v\u011bnovanou asijsko-pacifick\u00e9mu regionu\u201c. \u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd spole\u010denstv\u00ed nav\u00edc\u00a0<\/span>tr\u00e1p\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0obchodn\u00ed spory, americk\u00e1 cla na Indii a st\u00ed\u017enosti na n\u00e1kup rusk\u00e9 ropy Nov\u00fdm Dill\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv t\u00fdm se \u010dasto zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt mnohem v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd na expanzi na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli ne\u017e na financov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fa\u010dt\u016f za Pacifik.\u00a0<\/span>Hrozby<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zabaven\u00edm Panamsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu jako \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00edho majetku\u201c kv\u016fli \u201ep\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm\u201c poplatk\u016fm a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nal\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>na Mexiko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>Venezuelu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Braz\u00edlii<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>neo-monroeismem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 modern\u00edm pohledem na uzav\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u201edvorka\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 je to jakkoli, tento posun vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku: mohou USA skute\u010dn\u011b pustit Tichomo\u0159\u00ed? Ne tak \u00fapln\u011b, proto\u017ee Trump se sna\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1hnout z Evropy a zam\u011b\u0159it se na \u010c\u00ednu, a proto je nutn\u00e9 pos\u00edlit vazby s Japonskem a Indi\u00ed. N\u011bkdy nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Trump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v \u201eodsunut\u00ed\u201c QUAD na vedlej\u0161\u00ed kolej, nebo v tlaku na \u201ep\u0159esunut\u00ed\u201c americk\u00e9 z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee v Tichomo\u0159\u00ed, podobn\u011b jako se Washington nyn\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed \u201ep\u0159esunout\u201c ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt do Evropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlantick\u00e1 supervelmoc v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee \u201eopustit\u201c Asii; p\u0159es 60 procent glob\u00e1ln\u00edho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu proud\u00ed tam, s uzav\u0159en\u00fdmi z\u00e1kladnami a pakty. Ale jist\u011b se m\u016f\u017ee pokusit o zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by Japonsko, Indie a Austr\u00e1lie povolily. Trumpovy v\u00fdlevy ohledn\u011b \u201espravedliv\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu\u201c\u00a0<\/span>zas\u00e1hly NATO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dostate\u010dn\u011b tvrd\u011b a nyn\u00ed je na \u0159ad\u011b \u010cty\u0159stranka, jej\u00ed\u017e americk\u00fd v\u016fdce po\u017eaduje, aby spojenci platili uprost\u0159ed z\u00e1vod\u016f ve zbrojen\u00ed podn\u011bcovan\u00fdch USA, jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, USA by mohly \u010cty\u0159stranku \u201eodsunout na vedlej\u0161\u00ed kolej\u201c a prosazovat sob\u011bsta\u010dnost (jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b NATO), a dokonce by\u00a0<\/span>mohly p\u0159ehodnotit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0sliby AUKUS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory tomu v\u0161emu Trump nen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>izolacionista<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. P\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed by bylo popsat sou\u010dasnou americkou administrativu jako ob\u010das \u201epolokulovit\u011b uzav\u0159enou\u201c. Americk\u00e9 zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na soupe\u0159en\u00ed velmoc\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou (plus izraelsk\u00fd tlak) v\u0161ak izolacionismus neumo\u017e\u0148uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z americk\u00e9ho pohledu jsou dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9: Japonsko\u00a0<\/span>hovo\u0159\u00ed o spolupr\u00e1ci v r\u00e1mci \u010cty\u0159 zem\u00ed,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ale usiluje o\u00a0<\/span>bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dohody a vlastn\u00ed zbrojen\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Diverzifikuje se<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mimo r\u00e1mec \u010cty\u0159 zem\u00ed sm\u011brem k flexibiln\u00edm,\u00a0<\/span>individu\u00e1ln\u00edm pakt\u016fm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 obch\u00e1zej\u00ed americk\u00fd transak\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Indie se zase\u00a0<\/span>styd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, zapojuje se do rozhovor\u016f v r\u00e1mci \u010cty\u0159 zem\u00ed, jako je\u00a0<\/span>prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby nerostn\u00fdch surovin<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 si udr\u017euje\u00a0<\/span>vazby s Moskvou<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a dr\u00e1\u017ed\u00ed Washington\u00a0<\/span>kv\u016fli Ukrajin\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ironi\u00ed je, \u017ee pokud Trump\u016fv\u00a0<\/span>neomonroeismus<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u00edsk\u00e1 na s\u00edle, indicko-pacifick\u00fd region by se mohl vyvinout v multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed prostor, kter\u00e9mu by dominovala nikoli \u010cty\u0159ka, ale p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se region\u00e1ln\u00ed koalice \u2013 mechanismy\u00a0<\/span>veden\u00e9 ASEAN<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 partnerstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>P\u00e1s a stezka<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a mo\u017en\u00e1 i indick\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asi\u00ed. Jde o to, \u017ee takov\u00fd obrat \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c \u2013 zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fd za \u00fa\u010delem \u00faspory zdroj\u016f \u2013 nakonec posiluje region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9ry, aby zaplnili mezeru prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm flexibiln\u00edch, p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se koalic, a t\u00edm odsunuje na vedlej\u0161\u00ed kolej rigidn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, na USA zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd r\u00e1mec \u010cty\u0159ky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj riskuje ztr\u00e1tu irelevantnosti \u010dty\u0159ky, ale zvy\u0161uje flexibilitu ASEAN\/Indie a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b stabilizuje region prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201espole\u010dn\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed\u201c (st\u0159ed v\u00fdchod-z\u00e1pad).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dalo by se nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee narativ \u201easijsk\u00e9ho NATO\u201c se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke konci. V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by Kvadrat mohl p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat jako diplomatick\u00e1 formalita, ale jeho geopolitick\u00e1 podstata by byla vypr\u00e1zdn\u011bna. Indo-pacifick\u00fd region z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd, p\u0159esto v americk\u00e9 strategii ji\u017e nezauj\u00edm\u00e1 stejn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed. A\u0165 u\u017e je to dobr\u00e9 nebo zl\u00e9, americk\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium se op\u011bt d\u00edv\u00e1 na z\u00e1pad \u2013 na svou vlastn\u00ed polokouli, na sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed \u201edvorek\u201c, na sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed odraz. A to je \u0161patn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro Latinskoameri\u010dany, ale to je jin\u00e9 t\u00e9ma.<\/span><\/p>\n

Osud Quadu pod Trumpem nakonec vis\u00ed na vl\u00e1sku, ob\u011bt\u00ed fixace neomonroeismu na jeho \u201ezadn\u00ed dvorek\u201c a alergie sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu na otev\u0159en\u00e1 spojenectv\u00ed. P\u0159esto je pravda, \u017ee Trumpova zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika je natolik nevyzpytateln\u00e1, \u017ee se vzp\u00edr\u00e1 nekrolog\u016fm. Jeden tweetstorm, jedna nov\u00e1 krize v Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu nebo jedin\u00fd obrat od jeho hemisf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu by mohl p\u0159es noc spustit posun k o\u017eiven\u00ed seskupen\u00ed \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 ok\u00e1zal\u00fdm summitem l\u00eddr\u016f nebo celn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by znovu shrom\u00e1\u017edilo starou kapelu proti Pekingu. Koneckonc\u016f, washingtonsk\u00fd kruh \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016f, od Rubia po Hegsetha, znamen\u00e1 ur\u010ditou kontinuitu v tichomo\u0159sk\u00e9m divadle, i kdy\u017e to znamen\u00e1 \u201eoutsourcing\u201c st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti boje do Tokia a Nov\u00e9ho Dill\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokoule, nebo Pacifik? Pro Washington to nikdy nen\u00ed \u201ebu\u010f tohle, nebo tamto\u201c. Sp\u00ed\u0161e je to \u201etohle a tak\u00e9 tamto!\u201c. A\u0165 u\u017e je to \u010dty\u0159\u010dlenn\u00e1 zem\u011b, nebo ne, americk\u00e1 snaha \u010delit \u010c\u00edn\u011b je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hlubok\u00e1, zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e1 v rozpo\u010dtech a z\u00e1kladen od Guamu po Diego Garciu. Washington dosud v Pacifiku p\u0159i\u017eivuje\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 by nikdo nem\u011bl p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet \u2013 z\u00e1vody p\u0159\u00edmo\u010da\u0159e podn\u011bcovan\u00e9 prodejem americk\u00fdch raket, ponorek AUKUS a transfery technologi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trumpovo omezov\u00e1n\u00ed v r\u00e1mci strategie Amerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b vypr\u00e1zdn\u00ed \u010cty\u0159strann\u00fd konflikt a pos\u00edl\u00ed p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90100,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,9920,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90099"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90099\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}