{"id":90001,"date":"2025-10-16T03:46:49","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T01:46:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=90001"},"modified":"2025-10-16T03:46:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T01:46:49","slug":"nova-valka-mezi-pakistanem-a-afghanistanem-hranicni-strety-signalizuji-nebezpecny-posun-v-euroasijske-geopolitice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/16\/nova-valka-mezi-pakistanem-a-afghanistanem-hranicni-strety-signalizuji-nebezpecny-posun-v-euroasijske-geopolitice\/","title":{"rendered":"Nov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mezi P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem? Hrani\u010dn\u00ed st\u0159ety signalizuj\u00ed nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd posun v euroasijsk\u00e9 geopolitice"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u00dadajn\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na K\u00e1bul znovu rozdm\u00fdchaly star\u00e9 spory o Durandovu linii a jednotu Pa\u0161tun\u016f. Tato krize by mohla zm\u011bnit region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d \u2013 vt\u00e1hnout do sv\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy \u00cdr\u00e1n, Indii a hlavn\u00ed euroasijsk\u00e9 bloky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem form\u00e1ln\u011b\u00a0obvinil<\/a>\u00a0P\u00e1kist\u00e1n z prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1let\u016f v K\u00e1bulu a ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edch provinci\u00edch: p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du tato tvrzen\u00ed ani nepotvrdily, ani nevyvr\u00e1tily. Uprost\u0159ed zmatku byl v\u00fdbuch pobl\u00ed\u017e k\u00e1bulsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed Abdul Haq, p\u016fvodn\u011b popisovan\u00fd jako nehoda, pozd\u011bji afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany p\u0159ipsalo p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdm letoun\u016fm naru\u0161en\u00ed afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1sledovala dostate\u010dn\u011b prudk\u00e1\u00a0eskalace<\/a>\u00a0. Afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fd T\u00e1lib\u00e1n zah\u00e1jil odvetn\u00e9\u00a0\u00fatoky<\/a>\u00a0na p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pozice rozkl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed se pod\u00e9l hranice v n\u011bkolika provinci\u00edch. Vypukly prudk\u00e9 st\u0159ety, p\u0159i nich\u017e \u00fadajn\u011b zahynuly des\u00edtky voj\u00e1k\u016f a civilist\u016f na obou stran\u00e1ch. Hrani\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159echody byly\u00a0uzav\u0159eny<\/a>\u00a0a siln\u00e9 ost\u0159elov\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010duje. Vypuk\u00e1 nov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mezi Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem a K\u00e1bulem?<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom pochopili, co se d\u011bje, m\u016f\u017eeme si vzpomenout, \u017ee Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n dlouho odm\u00edtal uznat Durandovu linii \u2013 2 600 kilometr\u016f dlouhou hranici, kterou Britov\u00e9 vyty\u010dili v roce 1893. Tato hranice prot\u00edn\u00e1 srdce Pa\u0161tun\u016f a rozd\u011bluje kmeny, komunity a rodiny. To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 mimo jin\u00e9 proto, \u017ee Pa\u0161tunsk\u00e1 etnick\u00e1 skupina tvo\u0159\u00ed j\u00e1dro Talibanu a poskytuje v\u011bt\u0161inu v\u016fdc\u016f, bojovn\u00edk\u016f a podpory v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu. Dominuj\u00ed v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch regionech, jako je Kandah\u00e1r, a z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nezbytn\u00ed pro moc skupiny i po roce 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho re\u017eimu Talibanu \u2013 nikdy form\u00e1ln\u011b neuznala Durandovu linii jako legitimn\u00ed. Rozhodnut\u00ed P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na od roku 2000, oplocovat a militarizovat velk\u00e9 \u00faseky hranice ve jm\u00e9nu potla\u010den\u00ed militantn\u00edho pohybu jen zhor\u0161ilo m\u00edstn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, proto\u017ee bari\u00e9ra fyzicky p\u0159eru\u0161uje obvykl\u00fd p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed \u017eivot.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od doby, kdy se v roce 2021 ujal moci T\u00e1lib\u00e1n, za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 P\u00e1kist\u00e1n dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst \u00fatok\u016f ze strany\u00a0Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)<\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee usiluje o isl\u00e1msk\u00fd re\u017eim v P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu. Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d pravideln\u011b obvi\u0148uje afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fd T\u00e1lib\u00e1n z ukr\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed, podpory nebo poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b k\u00e1dr\u016fm TTP. Vl\u00e1da T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu to pop\u00edr\u00e1. Zpr\u00e1va OSN z roku 2024 v\u0161ak uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee TTP \u201eobdr\u017eela zna\u010dnou logistickou a opera\u010dn\u00ed podporu\u201c z afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Ideologick\u00e1 sp\u0159\u00edzn\u011bnost mezi TTP a afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdm T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem obraz komplikuje: sd\u00edlej\u00ed mnoho stejn\u00e9ho islamistick\u00e9ho sv\u011bton\u00e1zoru, i kdy\u017e se jejich bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed c\u00edle li\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch se Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d sna\u017eil \u201ep\u0159en\u00e9st boj\u201c do Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, aby bojoval proti p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edmu terorismu (jak to formuluje v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Umair Jamal\u00a0v \u010dl\u00e1nku<\/a>\u00a0pro The Diplomat), a t\u00edm nov\u011b definoval\u00a0hranice<\/a>\u00a0. Z p\u0159epracovan\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 perspektivy tedy jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok, o kter\u00e9m se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee poch\u00e1z\u00ed z afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u016fdy \u2013 a to i ze strany nest\u00e1tn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f \u2013 m\u016f\u017ee nyn\u00ed na afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed vyvolat trestnou reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se toto vzplanut\u00ed mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem ned\u011bje ve vakuu. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed ter\u010dem, a\u0165 u\u017e otev\u0159en\u011b \u010di skryt\u011b, nap\u011bt\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem i Indi\u00ed, co\u017e ho \u010din\u00ed zraniteln\u00fdm na mnoha front\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad v lednu 2024 jsem\u00a0se vyj\u00e1d\u0159il<\/a>\u00a0k rostouc\u00edmu t\u0159en\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a poznamenal, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed vliv \u00cdr\u00e1nu, hrani\u010dn\u00ed spory (zejm\u00e9na v Bal\u00fa\u010dist\u00e1nu) a obavy z p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho postoje v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii mohou naru\u0161it strukturu euroasijsk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n sd\u00edlej\u00ed \u010dlenstv\u00ed v \u0160anghajsk\u00e9 organizaci pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) a ob\u011b zem\u011b jsou v\u00e1z\u00e1ny A\u0161chabadskou dohodou, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem je propojit koridory mezi Persk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed. Jak\u00e9koli mezist\u00e1tn\u00ed t\u0159en\u00ed mezi nimi ohro\u017euje c\u00edle propojen\u00ed v Eurasii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rivalita sotva d\u0159\u00edm\u00e1. V kv\u011btnu 2025 jsem se ji\u017e\u00a0zab\u00fdval<\/a>\u00a0mo\u017enost\u00ed vznikaj\u00edc\u00edho spojenectv\u00ed mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a Indi\u00ed (proti P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu): historicky byl T\u00e1lib\u00e1n spojencem P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, ale ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed rostouc\u00ed indickou anga\u017eovanost v K\u00e1bulu, co\u017e znepokojuje Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d. To dod\u00e1v\u00e1 perspektivu tomu, co se d\u011bje nyn\u00ed. Indie vn\u00edm\u00e1 zapojen\u00ed T\u00e1lib\u00e1nu jako protiv\u00e1hu P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby to je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zkomplikovalo, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se ji\u017e pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s vnit\u0159n\u00edmi povst\u00e1n\u00edmi. V \u010dervnu jsem\u00a0napsal<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 krize na v\u00edce front\u00e1ch v konfliktu s bal\u00fa\u010dsk\u00fdmi separatisty, zhor\u0161en\u00e1 nap\u011bt\u00edm v ISKP, riskuje, \u017ee se p\u0159em\u011bn\u00ed v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed eurasijsk\u00fd po\u017e\u00e1r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jinde jsem\u00a0zd\u016fraz\u0148oval<\/a>\u00a0, jak m\u00e1 takov\u00e1 indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rivalita glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice Ka\u0161m\u00edru \u2013 prot\u00ednaj\u00ed se St\u0159edn\u00ed Asi\u00ed, Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem a d\u00e1le. A teprve ned\u00e1vno jsem\u00a0tvrdil<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee spory o vodu mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v oblasti hydropolitiky a povodn\u00ed \u2013 jsou sekuritizov\u00e1ny a mohou se nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b vyhrotit.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n je tedy celkov\u011b vzato v \u00fazk\u00fdch. Mus\u00ed se vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s tlakem z Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, indick\u00fdmi man\u00e9vry a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm nap\u011bt\u00edm na hranic\u00edch \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d zaujme agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj: ve skute\u010dnosti mo\u017en\u00e1 nevid\u00ed jinou bezpe\u010dnou mo\u017enost ne\u017e prom\u00edtat s\u00edlu ven, aby p\u0159ede\u0161el dal\u0161\u00edm hrozb\u00e1m. Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee se to vymst\u00ed a eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tuto chv\u00edli si lze okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159edstavit dva sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: bu\u010f kontrolovanou patovou situaci s ob\u010dasn\u00fdmi vzplanut\u00edmi, nebo eskalaci do omezen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. T\u0159et\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em by byl z\u00e1stupn\u00fd konflikt s vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi akt\u00e9ry a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by nov\u00fd konflikt mezi Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem nez\u016fstal omezen\u00fd. Mohl by se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it i mimo ni, ohrozit region\u00e1ln\u00ed eurasijskou stabilitu, rozb\u00edt multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed instituce a zat\u00e1hnout akt\u00e9ry daleko za hranice. I kdy\u017e se o krizi st\u00e1le m\u00e1lo informuje, mohla by se st\u00e1t zlomov\u00fdm bodem v euroasijsk\u00e9 geopolitice. Je proto na\u010dase, aby se mechanismy, jako je \u0160OS a dokonce i BRICS, kreativn\u011b zapojily do diskuse. Moskva m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00edm a podporou dialogu, vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm \u201e\u00a0<\/span>moskevsk\u00e9ho form\u00e1tu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c a tak\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00edm jako \u201eneutr\u00e1ln\u00ed svol\u00e1vatel\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00dadajn\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na K\u00e1bul znovu rozdm\u00fdchaly star\u00e9 spory o Durandovu linii a jednotu Pa\u0161tun\u016f….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":90002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[118,1042,2181,129],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90001"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}