{"id":89690,"date":"2025-10-12T00:24:37","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T22:24:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89690"},"modified":"2025-10-11T09:40:31","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T07:40:31","slug":"testovani-cervenych-linii-eskalace-zapadu-a-kalkul-prime-konfrontace-s-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/12\/testovani-cervenych-linii-eskalace-zapadu-a-kalkul-prime-konfrontace-s-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed: Eskalace Z\u00e1padu a kalkul p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace s Ruskem"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Mohl by se Baltsk\u00fd region st\u00e1t nov\u00fdm boji\u0161t\u011bm? Kaliningrad by mohl b\u00fdt v oble\u017een\u00ed. Pozemn\u00ed trasy ji\u017e byly zablokov\u00e1ny, na \u0159ad\u011b jsou leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy. Obru\u010d kolem rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy se zu\u017euje.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 jednotky stabiln\u011b postupuj\u00ed pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 linie kontaktu na Ukrajin\u011b. Neexistuje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by Kyjev p\u0159e\u0161el od obrann\u00e9 strategie k \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9. Existuje ale nakonec z t\u00e9to situace v\u00fdchodisko?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00ed krize Kyjeva t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se person\u00e1lu, zbran\u00ed a vojensk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed se z\u00e1padn\u00ed spojenci sna\u017e\u00ed zneu\u017e\u00edt sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situace. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu nedos\u00e1hlo vojensk\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky. P\u0159esto\u017ee je ekonomick\u00e1 situace jist\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1, Moskv\u011b se poda\u0159ilo udr\u017eet stabilitu zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Ilustrativn\u00ed obr\u00e1zek (n\u00e1siln\u00e9 chyt\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch mu\u017e\u016f)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Kdy\u017e se znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 strany st\u0159etnou v omezen\u00e9m prostoru, v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed strana s v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi zdroji a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed toleranc\u00ed k lidsk\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m. Rusko v tomto ohledu Ukrajinu daleko p\u0159evy\u0161uje, a to i p\u0159es podporu Ukrajiny ze strany EU a USA. Proto Z\u00e1pad prosazuje strategii vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed n\u011bkolika ohnisek nap\u011bt\u00ed kolem Ruska, co\u017e nut\u00ed Moskvu rozpt\u00fdlit sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly a br\u00e1n\u00ed j\u00ed v soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00ed se na Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Kliknut\u00edm zobraz\u00edte mapu v pln\u00e9 velikosti.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b v zim\u011b 2021-22 m\u011bl b\u00fdt Kazachst\u00e1n prvn\u00edm. S pomoc\u00ed Rus\u016f se Kasym-\u017domartu Tokajevovi poda\u0159ilo udr\u017eet si moc a potla\u010dit rebely bez krveprolit\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00edm v \u0159ad\u011b byl \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, kde nap\u011bt\u00ed eskalovalo v l\u00e9t\u011b 2025 po p\u00e1du letadla AZAL b\u011bhem \u00fatoku ukrajinsk\u00e9ho dronu. Konflikt byl vy\u0159e\u0161en 9. \u0159\u00edjna osobn\u00edm setk\u00e1n\u00edm prezident\u016f obou zem\u00ed, Vladimira Putina a Ilhama Alijeva. Dal\u0161\u00ed v \u0159ad\u011b je region, kter\u00fd je pro Rusko nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Kliknut\u00edm zobraz\u00edte obr\u00e1zek v pln\u00e9 velikosti. (TASS)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Kaliningrad je rusk\u00e1 exkl\u00e1va u Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s Polskem a Litvou. Nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed spojen\u00ed se zbytkem Ruska. Od roku 2022 Vilnius omezil tranzit zbo\u017e\u00ed po \u017eeleznici a v\u011bt\u0161ina zbo\u017e\u00ed se nyn\u00ed dod\u00e1v\u00e1 po mo\u0159i. Pozemn\u00ed trasa je ve skute\u010dnosti ji\u017e uzav\u0159ena. Dal\u0161\u00ed na \u0159ad\u011b jsou leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/p>\n

Kliknut\u00edm zobraz\u00edte obr\u00e1zek v pln\u00e9 velikosti.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee NATO diskutuje o zp\u016fsobech, jak vyv\u00edjet dal\u0161\u00ed tlak na Rusko v Pobalt\u00ed. Zejm\u00e9na se jednalo o zru\u0161en\u00ed omezen\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f proti rusk\u00fdm letadl\u016fm, kter\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u011b naru\u0161ovala vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor Aliance. Existuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9ho po\u010dtu ozbrojen\u00fdch dron\u016f na hranici s Kaliningradem. Brusel sm\u011b\u0159uje k eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Kliknut\u00edm zobraz\u00edte obr\u00e1zek v pln\u00e9 velikosti.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Moskva si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit takov\u00e9 akce ignorovat a bude nucena pos\u00edlit svou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Kaliningradu a nov\u011b z\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9m Leningradsk\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m okruhu v severoz\u00e1padn\u00edm Rusku. V regionu je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost rusk\u00fdch vojsk, kter\u00e1 zaji\u0161\u0165uje p\u0159\u00edstup Severn\u00ed flotily ke sv\u011btov\u00fdm oce\u00e1n\u016fm. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u00fakolem t\u011bchto vojsk je v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu zadr\u017eet s\u00edly NATO. Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem je, \u017ee jsou izolovan\u00e9 a budou muset dlouho \u010dekat na pomoc odjinud.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Zdroj: Konrad Muzyka, Rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly v Z\u00e1padn\u00edm vojensk\u00e9m okruhu, CNA, IOP-2020-U-028759-1Rev, \u010derven 2021, Neutajovan\u00e9 (schv\u00e1leno k ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

N\u00e1hodn\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost<\/span><\/b><\/h3>\n

Nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u011b ur\u010dit, zda letadlo p\u0159ekro\u010dilo vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed zem\u011b, proto\u017ee tato informace je klasifikov\u00e1na jako vojensk\u00e1. Vojensk\u00e1 letadla l\u00e9taj\u00ed s vypnut\u00fdmi transpond\u00e9ry, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ve\u0159ejnost nem\u016f\u017ee sledovat jejich pohyb. Piloti letectva NATO mohou kdykoli nahl\u00e1sit naru\u0161en\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b mohou interpretovat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch pilot\u016f jako nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9. Letadlo bude sest\u0159eleno.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\"Testov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/p>\n

Kliknut\u00edm zobraz\u00edte obr\u00e1zek v pln\u00e9 velikosti.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt ob\u011btov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska sv\u00fdch baltsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f v NATO: Litvy, Loty\u0161ska a Estonska. Konflikt z\u016fstane konven\u010dn\u00ed a nebude zahrnovat pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Na Rusko budou uvaleny dal\u0161\u00ed sankce a jeho p\u0159\u00edstup k severn\u00edm mo\u0159\u00edm bude zablokov\u00e1n. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee c\u00edle bude dosa\u017eeno: Moskva bude nucena rozpt\u00fdlit sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly a Ukrajina dostane oddech, kter\u00fd tolik pot\u0159ebuje ke stabilizaci frontov\u00e9 linie. Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 u\u017e jen ot\u00e1zka, zda Brusel podnikne tak riskantn\u00ed krok.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mohl by se Baltsk\u00fd region st\u00e1t nov\u00fdm boji\u0161t\u011bm? Kaliningrad by mohl b\u00fdt v oble\u017een\u00ed. Pozemn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3441,1422,39,716,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89690"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89692,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89690\/revisions\/89692"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}