{"id":89632,"date":"2025-10-11T00:30:59","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T22:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89632"},"modified":"2025-10-10T12:19:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T10:19:53","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-usa-selhaly-na-dobyt-energeticky-trh-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/11\/alexandre-lemoine-usa-selhaly-na-dobyt-energeticky-trh-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: USA selhaly na dob\u00fdt energetick\u00fd trh EU"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

EU se navzdory sv\u00fdm hlasit\u00fdm slib\u016fm nepoda\u0159ilo p\u0159eru\u0161it vztahy s Moskvou. Ani Washington nedok\u00e1zal vytla\u010dit rusk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 zdroje z evropsk\u00e9ho trhu. Nepoda\u0159ilo se ani omezit rusk\u00e9 zisky, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla Evropany skute\u010dn\u011b \u0161okovala.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed je zisk<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pl\u00e1n Evropsk\u00e9 komise zbavit se rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f nefunguje. Nav\u00edc i p\u0159es v\u0161echny sankce a dobrovoln\u00e1 sebeomezen\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b nad\u00e1le plat\u00ed Moskv\u011b za plyn a ropu, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>The Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ma\u010farsko a Slovensko jsou nejtvrdohlav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Nad\u00e1le odeb\u00edraj\u00ed ropu ropovodem Dru\u017eba a odm\u00edtaj\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvat chorvatsk\u00fd termin\u00e1l Adria s t\u00edm, \u017ee pro to \u201eneexistuje absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 mo\u017enost\u201c, informuj\u00ed noviny. Luke Wickenden z Centra pro v\u00fdzkum energie a \u010dist\u00e9ho ovzdu\u0161\u00ed (CREA) v\u0161ak dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee v\u0161e z\u00e1vis\u00ed na cen\u011b: v roce 2024 st\u00e1ly dod\u00e1vky z Ruska o 20 % m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e dod\u00e1vky z Chorvatska.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropn\u00e9 rafinerie v Ma\u010farsku a na Slovensku (nap\u0159. Duna a Slovnaft) jsou nav\u00edc po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159eny na t\u011b\u017ekou, kyselou ropu Ural. P\u0159echod na leh\u010d\u00ed ropu z Chorvatska nebo jin\u00fdch zdroj\u016f by vy\u017eadoval n\u00e1kladnou modernizaci rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, co\u017e je bez masivn\u00edch dotac\u00ed z Bruselu nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed v\u00fddaje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u0161ak\u00a0p\u0159ipadaj\u00ed na zemn\u00ed plyn. Podle \u00a0\u00a0<\/span>den\u00edku The Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v tomto ohledu vedou Francie, Belgie a \u0160pan\u011blsko, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e9 Slovenskem a Ma\u010farskem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee Brusel opakovan\u011b hovo\u0159il o d\u016fle\u017eitosti energetick\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti na Rusku a za\u010d\u00e1tkem kv\u011btna Evropsk\u00e1 komise p\u0159edstavila pl\u00e1n na \u00fapln\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed dovozu do roku 2027. V \u010dervnu Evropsk\u00e1 komise ofici\u00e1ln\u011b navrhla z\u00e1kaz v\u0161ech dod\u00e1vek, a to jak u nov\u00fdch smluv s rusk\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi, tak i u st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch spotov\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f. Toto opat\u0159en\u00ed by m\u011blo b\u00fdt realizov\u00e1no do konce roku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoho \u010dlen\u016f EU se v\u0161ak zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 tuto iniciativu podpo\u0159it a po\u017eaduje od Evropsk\u00e9 komise z\u00e1ruky energetick\u00e9 a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed jistoty. Nap\u0159\u00edklad francouzsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da uvedla, \u017ee d\u0159\u00edve uzav\u0159en\u00e9 dlouhodob\u00e9 smlouvy je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 ukon\u010dit bez negativn\u00edch d\u016fsledk\u016f. A ji\u017e tak zdlouhav\u00fd proces p\u0159echodu na jin\u00e9 zdroje fosiln\u00edch paliv komplikuje snaha vl\u00e1dy minimalizovat n\u00e1klady na elekt\u0159inu pro ob\u010dany.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla nel\u017eou<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho exportu do EU nen\u00ed reprezentativn\u00ed, jak Z\u00e1pad uzn\u00e1v\u00e1; zdroje p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdmi kan\u00e1ly. Dod\u00e1vky do Turecka a Indie se tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily. A pr\u00e1v\u011b odtud Evropa zv\u00fd\u0161ila sv\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Form\u00e1ln\u011b se p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky rusk\u00e9 ropy, uhl\u00ed a plynu do EU ve skute\u010dnosti podle r\u016fzn\u00fdch odhad\u016f\u00a0<\/span>sn\u00ed\u017eily<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o 50\u201370 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s rokem 2021. Pokud v\u0161ak vezmeme v \u00favahu reexport p\u0159es jin\u00e9 zem\u011b, skute\u010dn\u00fd pokles je pouze 25\u201335 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

List The Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0poukazuje na to, \u017ee N\u011bmecko sice od Nord Streamu upustilo, ale z Francie hodn\u011b dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. Z\u00e1pad nakonec Rusku plat\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1stky prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f. Od \u00fanora 2022 Berl\u00edn zaplatil Moskv\u011b 32 miliard dolar\u016f, Francie dala 21 miliard dolar\u016f a drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed zaplatila mnohem v\u00edce, ne\u017e kolik poslala na pomoc Ukrajin\u011b. Za t\u0159i roky klesly rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy uhlovod\u00edk\u016f o 90 %. Podle odhad\u016f m\u00e9di\u00ed v\u0161ak Moskva jen v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce od EU obdr\u017eela v\u00edce ne\u017e 22,5 miliardy dolar\u016f. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump to ozna\u010dil za \u201efinancov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti sob\u011b sam\u00e9mu\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Netr\u017en\u00ed mechanismus<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Odborn\u00edci p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed tyto obavy snaze Washingtonu \u201echopit se p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti\u201c. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e m\u011bly pod\u00edl na evropsk\u00e9m energetick\u00e9m trhu, ale ten byl nev\u00fdznamn\u00fd. I kdy\u017e se jim poda\u0159ilo ot\u0159\u00e1st n\u011bkter\u00fdmi hr\u00e1\u010di, jako je Katar, nepoda\u0159ilo se jim porazit Rusko tr\u017en\u00edmi prost\u0159edky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k dodate\u010dn\u00fdm logistick\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm a zprost\u0159edkovatelsk\u00fdm mar\u017e\u00edm je rusk\u00e1 ropa o 15 a\u017e 25 procent levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ropa ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, Kataru nebo Norska. Rusk\u00fd LNG m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e americk\u00e1 ropa, zejm\u00e9na za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek na trhu s plynem a s omezenou kapacitou termin\u00e1l\u016f pro p\u0159\u00edjem LNG v Evrop\u011b. Pro zem\u011b s omezen\u00fdmi rozpo\u010dty, jako je Ma\u010farsko, Bulharsko nebo Slovensko, je tento rozd\u00edl podle expert\u016f z\u00e1sadn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se nakonec rozhodly dob\u00fdt trh politick\u00fdm tlakem, co\u017e vy\u00fastilo v obchodn\u00ed dohodu s EU. V r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to dohody se EU\u00a0<\/span>zav\u00e1zala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k n\u00e1kupu americk\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f v hodnot\u011b 750 miliard dolar\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00e1stka je kolos\u00e1ln\u00ed a bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 tento pl\u00e1n realizovat. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto Evropsk\u00e1 komise pracuje na tom, aby co nejrychleji form\u00e1ln\u011b zak\u00e1zala dovoz rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale i kdyby byly dod\u00e1vky monopolizovan\u00e9, zd\u00e1 se to nere\u00e1ln\u00e9: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemaj\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9 objemy v\u00fdvozu LNG a ropy, aby zcela nahradily i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky z Ruska.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc \u00fapln\u00fd p\u0159echod na energetick\u00e9 zdroje z USA nejen\u017ee odporuje samotn\u00e9 my\u0161lence energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti, ale tak\u00e9 povede k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen elekt\u0159iny a paliv v EU, co\u017e op\u011bt po\u0161kod\u00ed evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici pova\u017euj\u00ed ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu za pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee sank\u010dn\u00ed omezen\u00ed budou form\u00e1ln\u011b respektov\u00e1na, zat\u00edmco de facto bude pokra\u010dovat n\u00e1kup rusk\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed. To se t\u00fdk\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na ropy a uhl\u00ed, kde je kontrola nad p\u016fvodem st\u00e1le slab\u00e1. \u00dapln\u00fd rozchod je mo\u017en\u00fd pouze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b radik\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny geopolitick\u00e9 situace nebo za p\u0159\u00edtomnosti levn\u00fdch a spolehliv\u00fdch alternativ. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 z nich v\u0161ak zat\u00edm nejsou na dohled.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EU se navzdory sv\u00fdm hlasit\u00fdm slib\u016fm nepoda\u0159ilo p\u0159eru\u0161it vztahy s Moskvou. Ani Washington nedok\u00e1zal vytla\u010dit…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89633,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,2354,310,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89632"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89632"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89632\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}