{"id":89353,"date":"2025-10-07T00:30:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T22:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89353"},"modified":"2025-10-06T17:50:01","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T15:50:01","slug":"jan-sedlacek-volby-2025-z-louze-do-blata","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/07\/jan-sedlacek-volby-2025-z-louze-do-blata\/","title":{"rendered":"Jan Sedl\u00e1\u010dek: Volby 2025 \u2013 z lou\u017ee do bl\u00e1ta"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pozitivem t\u011bchto voleb je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee fialov\u00e1 p\u011btikoalice ztratila v\u011bt\u0161inu ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b. T\u00edm ale p\u0159\u00ednosy t\u011bchto voleb kon\u010d\u00ed. Je zn\u00e1t, \u017ee z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bna nep\u0159ijde.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jednozna\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzem voleb je\u00a0hnut\u00ed ANO<\/strong>. To vyluxovalo jak vla\u017en\u00e9 voli\u010de (a b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 nevoli\u010de), tak i d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed voli\u010de SPD a stran sdru\u017een\u00fdch pod Sta\u010dilo. V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed je to o to v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Babi\u0161 te\u010f vedl jen zcela pr\u016fm\u011brnou kampa\u0148, nep\u0159ich\u00e1zel s nov\u00fdmi t\u00e9maty a v podstat\u011b jen jel setrva\u010dnost\u00ed na vln\u011b sv\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159let\u00e9 kritiky Fialovy vl\u00e1dy. I to mu sta\u010dilo k jasn\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Koalice SPOLU<\/strong>\u00a0sice oslabila, ale nen\u00ed to zdaleka takov\u00fd v\u00fdprask, jak\u00fd by se po 4 letech jej\u00ed vl\u00e1dy dal o\u010dek\u00e1vat. Zat\u00edmco po Ne\u010dasov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b spadla ODS pod 8 %, te\u010f se strany koaluj\u00edc\u00ed pod SPOLU jen vr\u00e1tily na \u00farove\u0148 z voleb 2017. Je vid\u011bt, \u017ee v posledn\u00edch dnech kampan\u011b se cel\u00e1 ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 debata zplo\u0161tila do souboje ANO vs. SPOLU, co\u017e ob\u011b tato uskupen\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edlilo na \u00fakor men\u0161\u00edch stran (n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho jsme vid\u011bli i v 1. kole prezidentsk\u00e9 volby 2023).<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm voleb jsou\u00a0STAN a Pir\u00e1ti<\/strong>. Jednak u\u017e to, \u017ee se jim po mnoha letech poda\u0159ilo p\u0159ekonat 17 % \u00farove\u0148, kterou STAN a Pir\u00e1ti+Zelen\u00ed v sou\u010dtu z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed (viz volby 2017 i 2021).<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed zisk pro STAN ne\u017e pro Pir\u00e1ty. Dalo se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee Pir\u00e1ti (kte\u0159\u00ed vedli velmi propracovanou kampa\u0148) shr\u00e1bnou v\u00edce hlas\u016f ne\u017e STAN, jemu\u017e \u0161kodila zcela plytk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 a dozimetr\u00e1ck\u00e9 kauzy. STAN nicm\u00e9n\u011b z\u00edskal dvoucifern\u00fd v\u00fdsledek, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee jeho voli\u010di jsou proti t\u011bmto vliv\u016fm z\u0159ejm\u011b imunn\u00ed. P\u0159esto STAN p\u0159ijde o \u010d\u00e1st mand\u00e1t\u016f oproti minul\u00fdm volb\u00e1m a o vysn\u011bn\u00e9m 15 % v\u00fdsledku si m\u016f\u017ee nechat jen zd\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ekvapen\u00ed se kon\u00e1 i u\u00a0Motorist\u016f<\/strong>. Tedy ne ani tak jejich v\u00fdsledek (ten se dal o\u010dek\u00e1vat, by\u0165 osobn\u011b jsem odhadoval v\u00edce). P\u0159ekvapen\u00edm je to, \u017ee podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f zjevn\u011b \u010derpali voli\u010de p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b z opozi\u010dn\u00edho t\u00e1bora. Po jejich pravicov\u011b lad\u011bn\u00e9 a pro-syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 kampani jsem po\u010d\u00edtal s t\u00edm, \u017ee uberou p\u0159\u00edznivce SPOLU a z\u00edskaj\u00ed jejich zklaman\u00e9 voli\u010de, co\u017e se nestalo. Te\u010f je ot\u00e1zka, jak se zachovaj\u00ed a zda po volb\u00e1ch up\u0159ednostn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci s dosavadn\u00ed vl\u00e1dou, nebo s Babi\u0161em.<\/p>\n

O euroskeptick\u00e9 opozici se zde rozep\u00ed\u0161u podrobn\u011bji:<\/p>\n

SPD<\/strong>\u00a0p\u0159edvedlo sv\u016fj zat\u00edm nejslab\u0161\u00ed sn\u011bmovn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek a je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee toto je za\u010d\u00e1tek Okamurova konce. Okamura nedok\u00e1zal vyu\u017e\u00edt 4 roky ve sn\u011bmovn\u00ed opozici (a k tomu bohat\u00fd prostor v syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch i alternativn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch) k tomu, aby zv\u00fd\u0161il \u010di alespo\u0148 obh\u00e1jil sv\u016fj v\u00fdsledek.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc je dost pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee bez Svobodn\u00fdch, Trikolory a PRO by Okamura skon\u010dil pod 5 %. Pr\u00e1v\u011b kandid\u00e1ti t\u011bchto stran z\u00edskali tolik krou\u017ek\u016f, \u017ee je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee mnoho lid\u00ed volilo SPD jen kv\u016fli nim (ono nen\u00ed divu, kdy\u017e Okamura vy\u0161tval z SPD v\u011bt\u0161inu osobnost\u00ed, tak\u017ee v SPD z\u016fstali a\u017e na v\u00fdjimky jen nev\u00fdrazn\u00ed lid\u00e9). Poslaneck\u00fd klub SPD bude z\u0159ejm\u011b z nezanedbateln\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti tvo\u0159en z\u00e1stupci t\u011bchto stran, co\u017e Okamuru je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce oslab\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jeliko\u017e Okamura se s\u00e1m z\u0159ejm\u011b nevzd\u00e1 veden\u00ed SPD, nab\u00edzej\u00ed se 2 mo\u017enosti: Bu\u010f bude sesazen nespokojen\u00fdmi \u010dleny a nahrazen jin\u00fdm p\u0159edsedou, nebo se voli\u010di SPD p\u0159esunou jinam \u2013 z\u0159ejm\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b k on\u011bm men\u0161\u00edm stran\u00e1m v klubu SPD. Dravec Rajchl ji\u017e na tuto ko\u0159ist \u010d\u00edh\u00e1. A pokud Svobodn\u00ed a Trikolora neusnou na vav\u0159\u00ednech, mohou zde tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eit. Spojen\u00ed SPD+Triko do jedn\u00e9 strany (veden\u00e9 osobnost\u00ed typu doc. \u0160ev\u010d\u00edka) by mohlo zrodit s\u00edlu, kter\u00e1 p\u0159evezme voli\u010de SPD a zbav\u00ed se p\u0159itom Okamurovy p\u0159\u00edt\u011b\u017ee, kter\u00e1 br\u00e1n\u00ed prorazit 10% strop.<\/p>\n

Sta\u010dilo<\/strong>\u00a0skon\u010dilo je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159e a nep\u0159ekro\u010dilo ani 5% hranici. Pamatuji, jak se Vidl\u00e1k po eurovolb\u00e1ch vysm\u00edval SPD, \u017ee po spojen\u00ed s Trikolorou jim klesly volebn\u00ed preference a \u017ee se uk\u00e1zala volebn\u00ed matematika, kdy 10 + 2 = 6. Te\u010f se to Vidl\u00e1kovi naplno vr\u00e1tilo, kdy\u017e se po spojen\u00ed Sta\u010dilo a SocDem uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee 7 + 2 = 4.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00edm s eurohujersk\u00fdm SocDem toti\u017e cel\u00e9 Sta\u010dilo vym\u011bklo, \u010d\u00edm\u017e odradilo radik\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed voli\u010de (kte\u0159\u00ed to hodili rad\u0161i SPD), ale nez\u00edskalo ty um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee ty u\u017e d\u00e1vno vyluxoval Babi\u0161.<\/p>\n

Korunu tomu nasadila kandidatura pro-migra\u010dn\u00ed antifa\u010dky Petry Prok\u0161anov\u00e9 a zapojen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch progresivc\u016f, jako je Mat\u011bj Stropnick\u00e1 (to nen\u00ed p\u0159eklep). Kv\u016fli tomu dokonce Sta\u010dilo volilo m\u00e9n\u011b lid\u00ed ne\u017e v eurovolb\u00e1ch, co\u017e je alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Naopak se uk\u00e1zalo jako rozumn\u00e9 p\u0159idat na kandid\u00e1tky osobnosti z vlasteneck\u00e9 alternativy (Jaroslav \u0160tefec, Martina Bedn\u00e1\u0159ov\u00e1, Marek Obrtel), kdy i na krou\u017ec\u00edch je vid\u011bt, \u017ee tito lid\u00e9 \u201et\u00e1hnou\u201c. Mnoho lid\u00ed (v\u010detn\u011b m\u011b) volilo Sta\u010dilo jen proto, aby podpo\u0159ili tyto osobnosti. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b ani to Vidl\u00e1kovi a Kone\u010dn\u00e9 neSta\u010dilo. Kate\u0159ina Kone\u010dn\u00e1 tedy z\u016fstane v EP a bude m\u00edt p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost napravit jej\u00ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed z minul\u00fdch let.<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u00ed strany podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed skon\u010dily hluboko pod 5 %.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edsaha<\/strong>\u00a0je mrtv\u00e1. Taktika k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed 1,5 % (a t\u00edm st\u00e1tn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku) nevy\u0161la, jak jsem ostatn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal. Lo\u0148sk\u00e9 zvolen\u00ed 1 sen\u00e1tora a 1 europoslankyn\u011b bylo labut\u00ed p\u00edsn\u00ed P\u0159\u00edsahy.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed strany z\u016fstaly je\u0161t\u011b o parn\u00edk pozadu. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed to, jak eurohujersk\u00fd Volt zcela vyho\u0159el jak p\u0159\u00edmo ve volb\u00e1ch, tak i se sv\u00fdmi \u017ealobami na opozici. To, \u017ee se k t\u011bmto \u017ealob\u00e1m p\u0159ipojil, srazilo vaz i Miroslavu Sl\u00e1dkovi a cel\u00e9mu hnut\u00ed \u010cR na 1. m\u00edst\u011b. Zalo\u017eit si kampa\u0148 na okop\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed kotn\u00edk\u016f konkurenci a na naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed opozi\u010dn\u00edch shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed (nam\u00edsto aby svoji s\u00edlu zam\u011b\u0159ili proti p\u011btikolce a Babi\u0161ovi), to pova\u017euji za nejhor\u0161\u00ed volebn\u00ed taktiku v historii.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee oproti 0,06 % pro Volt z\u00edskalo hnut\u00ed \u010cR1 o chlup lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek, a to 0,22 %. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tu m\u00e1me zhruba 12 500 voli\u010d\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu cht\u011bj\u00ed odchod \u010cR z EU, NATO a WHO \u2013 a stran\u011b, kter\u00e1 to prosazuje, to hod\u00ed, i kdy\u017e m\u00e1 tato strana sebev\u00edce amat\u00e9rskou a zpackanou kampa\u0148. To znamen\u00e1 ur\u010dit\u00fd, by\u0165 zat\u00edm n\u00edzk\u00fd, potenci\u00e1l do budoucna.<\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1,\u00a0co nastane po volb\u00e1ch<\/strong>. Vl\u00e1da na sou\u010dasn\u00e9m p\u016fdorysu na\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed ji\u017e nehroz\u00ed. Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed slovo tam bude m\u00edt Babi\u0161. Do vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice z\u0159ejm\u011b s\u00e1hne po Motoristech, s t\u00edm ale z\u0159ejm\u011b t\u011bsn\u011b nevysta\u010d\u00ed. A bude zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledovat, zda pot\u00e9 s\u00e1hne rad\u011bji po SPD, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e po ODS. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zm\u011bnu syst\u00e9mu nep\u0159inese a bude \u0159e\u0161it sp\u00ed\u0161e jen kosmetick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, ne\u017e aby skute\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u0161ila p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny probl\u00e9m\u016f.<\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b to m\u016f\u017ee Babi\u0161ovi do budoucna srazit vaz. ANO v kampani mluvilo o zru\u0161en\u00ed ETS 2, o levn\u00fdch energi\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edch t\u00e9matech, kter\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u011b zn\u011bly jen na alternativ\u011b. Z\u0159ejm\u011b proto tak\u00e9 z\u00edskali tolik hlas\u016f i od tvrd\u0161\u00ed opozice. Lidi nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed \u010dap\u00ed hn\u00edzda, ale levn\u00e1 elekt\u0159ina a potraviny. Bude zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 sledovat Babi\u0161e, jak man\u00e9vruje mezi tlakem EU na \u201eklimatick\u00e9\u201c zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161eho a tlakem jeho voli\u010d\u016f na konec drahoty. Pokud Babi\u0161 sv\u00e9 voli\u010de zklame (co\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m), mohou se pak tito vr\u00e1tit ke stran\u00e1m tvrd\u0161\u00ed opozice.<\/p>\n

Se\u010dteno a podtr\u017eeno, Fialovu vl\u00e1du jsme ji\u017e porazili, ale d\u00e1l jsme se nedostali. St\u00e1le v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed (a s\u00edl\u00ed) pro-EU a pro-syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 strany. \u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s je\u0161t\u011b tvrd\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce. Z lou\u017ee jsme se ji\u017e dostali, ale st\u00e1le p\u0159e\u0161lapujeme v bl\u00e1t\u011b.<\/p>\n

RNDr. Jan Sedl\u00e1\u010dek<\/a>, p\u0159edseda ND<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Pozitivem t\u011bchto voleb je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee fialov\u00e1 p\u011btikoalice ztratila v\u011bt\u0161inu ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b. T\u00edm ale p\u0159\u00ednosy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89354,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,122,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89353"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89353\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}