{"id":89301,"date":"2025-10-06T06:33:52","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T04:33:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89301"},"modified":"2025-10-06T06:33:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T04:33:52","slug":"michael-svatos-ruske-bezprostredni-strategicke-plany-pro-dalsi-pokracovani-valky-na-ukrajine-1-cast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/06\/michael-svatos-ruske-bezprostredni-strategicke-plany-pro-dalsi-pokracovani-valky-na-ukrajine-1-cast\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Rusk\u00e9 bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny pro dal\u0161\u00ed pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b (1. \u010d\u00e1st)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jak jsme v \u0159ad\u011b posledn\u00edch anal\u00fdz p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, minul\u00fd t\u00fdden,\u00a0 s p\u0159\u00edchodem chladn\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed, zah\u00e1jila rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da efektivn\u00ed destrukci ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetiky, tak aby byla, \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00edmi pl\u00e1nova\u010di gener\u00e1la Gerasimova, pe\u010dliv\u011b vybran\u00e1 velk\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 popula\u010dn\u00ed centra u\u010din\u011bna rusk\u00fdmi raketami i drony pro lidsk\u00fd \u017eivot nesnesiteln\u00e1, a aby velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st tamn\u00edch rezident\u016f rad\u011bji nalo\u017eila sv\u016fj nejnutn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed majetek do aut, a za\u010dala v dostate\u010dn\u00e9m po\u010dtu rychle mizet sm\u011brem na z\u00e1pad. Rusk\u00e1 operace \u201cZimn\u00ed chaos u Chochol\u016f \u201d se u\u017e v noci ze soboty na ned\u011bli tento v\u00edkend rozjela na pln\u00e9 obr\u00e1tky, a tak jsou k dispozici prvn\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed data, a u\u017e je mo\u017en\u00e9 analyzovat p\u0159esn\u00e9 c\u00edle, z\u00e1m\u011bry i pl\u00e1ny kremelsk\u00e9 generality pro z\u00e1v\u011br leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n

V\u010dera, v noci na ned\u011bli, provedlo Rusko mo\u017en\u00e1 nejmasov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1let na ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta. Pokud se n\u00e1letu ne\u00fa\u010dastnil nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det dron\u016f, pak jejich ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed po\u010det byl vynahrazen mnohem \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi a ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi k\u0159i\u017euj\u00edc\u00edmi st\u0159elami a balistick\u00fdmi raketami. Polsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia v\u010dera hl\u00e1sila, \u017ee\u00a0banderovsk\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto Lvov se v\u010dera stalo c\u00edlem zat\u00edm nejmohutn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku za celou dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Ukrajinsk\u00e1 mapa rusk\u00e9ho \u00faderu v noci ze soboty na ned\u011bli. \u017dlut\u00e1 = prvn\u00ed vlna \u2013 drony. Zelen\u00e1 = druh\u00e1 vlna \u2013 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed st\u0159ely Kalibr.\u00a0 \u010cerven\u00e1 = t\u0159et\u00ed vlna \u2013 z letadel odpalovan\u00e9 st\u0159ely Ch-101. Zelen\u00e1 = \u010dtvrt\u00e1 vlna \u2013 hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely Kin\u017e\u00e1l. Modr\u00e1 = p\u00e1t\u00e1 vlna \u2013 balistick\u00e9 rakety Iskander. B\u00edl\u00e1 = \u0161est\u00e1 vlna \u2013 klouzav\u00e9 bomby KAB. Celkem nasazeno p\u0159es 500 dron\u016f a okolo 50 st\u0159el a raket. (Zdroj mapy<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Obdobn\u011b \u00fatok ukazuje i rusk\u00e1 mapa. Nav\u00edc je z n\u00ed v r\u00e1me\u010dc\u00edch patrno, \u017ee ob\u011b strany konfliktu v\u010dera zu\u0159iv\u011b vz\u00e1jemn\u011b \u00fato\u010dily proti nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm.\u00a0 (Zdroj mapy<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00fd \u00fatok byl slo\u017een ze 7 vln r\u016fzn\u00fdch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a byl velmi rafinovan\u00fd. Ukrajinci reagovali na p\u0159\u00edlet prvn\u00edch t\u0159\u00ed rusk\u00fdch vln, a zvedli sv\u00e1 zbyl\u00e1 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 letadla do vzduchu, a ta p\u0159el\u00e9tla na z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b, aby se vyhnula \u00fader\u016fm prvn\u00edch t\u0159i rusk\u00fdch vln.\u00a0V tom okam\u017eiku Rusov\u00e9 vypustili \u010dtvrtou a p\u00e1tou vlnu<\/a>, hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely Kin\u017e\u00e1l a balistick\u00e9 rakety, a ty u\u017e m\u00ed\u0159ily na ukrajinsk\u00e1 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b, kde pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159ist\u00e1vala ukrajinsk\u00e1 letadla. N\u011bjakou n\u00e1hodou byly pr\u00fd tou dobou v\u0161echny \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u0161pion\u00e1\u017en\u00ed satelity nad Ukrajinou, zu\u0159il v\u010dera Zelenskyj, a vyvozoval z toho, \u017ee \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 Rusku v \u00fatoku pom\u00e1hali. Kde tou dobou byly americk\u00e9 satelity Zelenskyj ne\u0159ekl. Ostatn\u011b, nebylo by se \u010d\u00edm chlubit, \u017ee? V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rusk\u00fd \u00fatok byl v\u010dera extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, a zni\u010dil n\u011bkolik tepl\u00e1ren, elektr\u00e1ren, pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch podnik\u016f, a\u00a0hlavn\u011b vyp\u00e1lil velk\u00fd logistick\u00fd are\u00e1l u Lvova<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pokud na obou map\u00e1ch naho\u0159e vid\u00edte chaos, je jen zd\u00e1nliv\u00fd, proto\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti Rusov\u00e9 sv\u00fdmi \u00fatoky sleduj\u00ed n\u011bkolik p\u0159esn\u00fdch strategi\u00ed, a ty se s\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed do kone\u010dn\u00e9ho pl\u00e1novan\u00e9ho c\u00edle \u2013 Co nejrychleji, a co nejefektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, pomoc\u00ed velk\u00e9ho po\u010dtu konven\u010dn\u00edch \u00fader\u016f, zcela rozlo\u017eit ukrajinskou schopnost kl\u00e1st \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd odpor, s term\u00ednem dosa\u017een\u00ed c\u00edle kolem p\u0159elomu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.\u00a0 Zda potom bude n\u00e1sledovat dosa\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f okam\u017eitou m\u00edrovou diplomatickou cestou, a nebo Putin zmobilizuje, a dvoumilionov\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok koncem jara vtrhne na Ukrajince s rozkazem, jednou prov\u017edy je zbavit v\u0161\u00ed chuti Rus\u016fm je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bkdy v tomto stolet\u00ed odporovat, bude z\u00e1viset, jak na \u00fa\u010dinnosti rusk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, tak na zimn\u00edm po\u010das\u00ed, tak na v\u016fli Kyjeva kl\u00e1st odpor. Pokud Z\u00e1pad do konfliktu vstoup\u00ed, jak se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 Orb\u00e1n, budou se odehr\u00e1vat zcela jin\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, ale ty v dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdze \u00fapln\u011b pomineme.<\/p>\n

(1) Strategie prvn\u00ed \u2013 Destruovat hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1padoukrajinsk\u00e9 velk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 aglomerace, p\u0159es kter\u00e9 proch\u00e1z\u00ed z Polska a z Rumunska ve\u0161ker\u00e1 logistika Kolektivn\u00edho z\u00e1padu.<\/h3>\n

V\u010dera pozd\u011b ve\u010der za\u010dala ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia hromadn\u011b vyvracet \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00ed se zpr\u00e1vy,\u00a0\u017ee hlavn\u00edm n\u00e1vod\u010d\u00edm rusk\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f na c\u00edle ve m\u011bst\u011b Lvov byl jeho starosta Andryi Sadovyi<\/a>. Ten se podle \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edch se zpr\u00e1v m\u011bl kr\u00e1tk\u00fd \u010das p\u0159ed rusk\u00fdm \u00fatokem v m\u00e9di\u00edch hloup\u011b chlubit videi ze sv\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho lvovsk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho parku Sparrow, a na v\u0161echny objekty jeho n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy v\u010dera dopadly rusk\u00e9 hlavice, a v\u0161echny je vyp\u00e1lily. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia v\u010dera ve\u010der tvrdila,\u00a0\u017ee jde o zlot\u0159ilou ruskou propagandu<\/a>, a\u00a0nic z toho se nestalo<\/a>, jen ve Lvov\u011b jsou po v\u010derej\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1letu jist\u00e9 \u0161kody, na jejich\u017e odstran\u011bn\u00ed se u\u017e intenzivn\u011b pracuje.<\/p>\n

Na Lvov v\u0161ak v\u010dera dopadlo 78 dron\u016f a 12 raket<\/a>, a \u0161kody ve m\u011bst\u011b byly podle polsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9.\u00a0Zde si m\u016f\u017eete prohl\u00e9dnou obrovsk\u00e9 mra\u010dno z po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f<\/a>, kter\u00e9 se vzn\u00e1\u0161elo na m\u011bstem, a po\u017e\u00e1ry samotn\u00e9, a nepot\u0159ebujete ani Telegram. Z polsk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed je nav\u00edc z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 rakety v\u010dera ve Lvov\u011b c\u00edlen\u011b vypalovaly velk\u00e9 modern\u00ed logistick\u00e9 are\u00e1ly pat\u0159\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edm firm\u00e1m, a je tak jasn\u00e9, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 majitel\u016fm budov i vlastn\u00edk\u016fm zbo\u017e\u00ed budou obrovsk\u00e9, a spousta ukrajinsk\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f nav\u00edc ztrat\u00ed dob\u0159e placenou pr\u00e1ci.<\/p>\n

Lvov je hlavn\u00ed logistick\u00fd uzel pro zbo\u017e\u00ed sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed na Ukrajinu z Polska, a druh\u00e9 v\u010dera napaden\u00e9 m\u011bsto Ivano-Frankivsk je jeho logistick\u00e9 dvoj\u010de pro transfer zbo\u017e\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edho na Ukrajinu z Rumunska. Ob\u011b m\u011bsta jsou velk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 aglomerace, a jak\u00e9koli p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek tepla, vody a elekt\u0159iny tak bude, jak pro jejich obyvatele, tak i pro m\u00edstn\u00ed firmy mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b bolestiv\u00e9. Krom p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch miliardov\u00fdch \u0161kod z\u00e1padn\u00edm a ukrajinsk\u00fdm vlastn\u00edk\u016fm, hraje p\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch na tato m\u011bsta d\u016fle\u017eitou roli i fakt, jak se v\u010dera uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee nejsou chr\u00e1n\u011bna jakoukoli protivzdu\u0161nou obranou, a rusk\u00e9 hlavice tak m\u011bly v\u010dera \u017en\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyj dosud po\u0161etile naivn\u011b br\u00e1nil drah\u00fdmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi protivzdu\u0161n\u00fdmi raketami pouze kyjevskou smet\u00e1nku, a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Od\u011bsu. Jakmile se rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Lvov, Ivano-Frankivsk, Dn\u011bpropetrovsk, a dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bsta budou mno\u017eit, m\u00edstn\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 za\u010dnou z\u00e1konit\u011b reptat, pro\u010d se jim nedost\u00e1v\u00e1 stejn\u00e9 ochrany jako obyvatel\u016fm Kyjeva. A tento efekt m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd rusk\u00fd c\u00edl, vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavky Zelensk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu na \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed NATO, aby z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b dodaly Ukrajin\u011b je\u0161t\u011b mnohem v\u00edce extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00fdch anti-raket. Rostouc\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady na udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b v plynul\u00e9m chodu, tak maj\u00ed evidentn\u011b podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f rychle prohlubovat prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed erozi b\u00fdval\u00e9 jednotn\u00e9 podpory Ukrajiny zem\u011bmi kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n

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Agenti rusk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby SVR v\u010dera tvrdili<\/a>, \u017ee tento v\u00edkend nebyl pro \u201cdemokratickou Evropu\u201d p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd, proto\u017ee v Gruzii\u00a0byl rozpr\u00e1\u0161en 5. pokus o barevnou revoluci<\/a>, a v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice se ve volb\u00e1ch chopil moci Andrej Babi\u0161. Ten je sice podle agent\u016f SVR \u201cprotirusk\u00fd\u201d, a od jeho kabinetu nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u011bjak\u00e9 \u201cpozitivn\u00ed zm\u011bny\u201d sm\u011brem k Rusku. Ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 je proti \u201cglob\u00e1ln\u00edm progresivist\u016fm\u201d, a m\u016f\u017ee tak v koalici s Robertem Ficem a Victorem Orb\u00e1nem nakonec dob\u0159e \u0161kodit rusk\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm Eurokrat\u016fm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Anal\u00fdza bude pokra\u010dovat z\u00edtra, dal\u0161\u00edmi strategick\u00fdmi c\u00edli sou\u010dasn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 kampan\u011b.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak jsme v \u0159ad\u011b posledn\u00edch anal\u00fdz p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, minul\u00fd t\u00fdden,\u00a0 s p\u0159\u00edchodem chladn\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed, zah\u00e1jila rusk\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,102,22,1894,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89301"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89301\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}