{"id":89195,"date":"2025-10-04T00:27:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T22:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89195"},"modified":"2025-10-03T18:02:29","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T16:02:29","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-situace-ohledne-ukrajiny-vyvolava-v-evrope-nejistotu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/04\/alexandre-lemoine-situace-ohledne-ukrajiny-vyvolava-v-evrope-nejistotu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Situace ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v Evrop\u011b nejistotu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusko vede hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Z\u00e1padu, nen\u00ed prok\u00e1z\u00e1na, uzn\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>CNN<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. V Evrop\u011b v\u0161ak zavl\u00e1dl zmatek: lid\u00e9 v zem\u00edch podporuj\u00edc\u00edch Ukrajinu se ji\u017e nec\u00edt\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin minul\u00fd t\u00fdden dok\u00e1zal bez jedin\u00e9ho v\u00fdst\u0159elu sd\u011blit podstatu konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b milion\u016fm Evropan\u016f, kter\u00fdch se sotva dotkl.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u010der 25. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, po v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch naru\u0161en\u00edch provozu na n\u011bkolika leti\u0161t\u00edch zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch neidentifikovan\u00fdmi drony, d\u00e1nsk\u00e1 premi\u00e9rka Mette Frederiksenov\u00e1 znepokojen\u00fdm D\u00e1n\u016fm\u00a0<\/span>sd\u011blila<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Evropa bude muset \u010delit \u201enov\u00fdm realit\u00e1m v podob\u011b brut\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch a \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hybridn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f\u201c. Rusko v\u0161ak neuvedla jako p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho vin\u00edka (mo\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli nedostatku d\u016fkaz\u016f v tomto okam\u017eiku), ale jako hlavn\u00ed hrozbu pro Evropu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nedostatek jasnosti je jedn\u00edm z p\u0159\u00edznak\u016f tohoto typu \u00fatoku. Anonymn\u00edho zlo\u010dince nelze identifikovat ani zastavit, bez ohledu na to, jak velk\u00e9 \u0161kody nebo drobn\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00edjemnosti zp\u016fsob\u00ed. \u010cek\u00e1n\u00ed a nejistota jsou dal\u0161\u00edm znakem. Frederiksen dodal dal\u0161\u00ed motiv pro nezn\u00e1m\u00e9ho pachatele: \u201eCht\u011bj\u00ed, aby lid\u00e9 p\u0159estali d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat \u00fa\u0159ad\u016fm.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 po cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Opravdu Rusko vyslalo do Polska v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 dron\u016f? Bylo dvan\u00e1ctiminutov\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed estonsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru d\u016fsledkem \u0161patn\u00e9ho v\u00fdcviku rusk\u00fdch pilot\u016f, jak nazna\u010doval americk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Alexus Grynkewich, vrchn\u00ed velitel spojeneck\u00fdch sil v Evrop\u011b, nebo d\u016fsledkem expanzivn\u00ed agrese Moskvy? Byl hackersk\u00fd \u00fatok, kter\u00fd o n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji vedl ke zru\u0161en\u00ed let\u016f nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Evropou, pouhou n\u00e1hodou?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po t\u0159ech dnech naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu leti\u0161\u0165 a zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch o rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 lodi spat\u0159en\u00e9 u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed D\u00e1nska s vypnut\u00fdmi transpond\u00e9ry si d\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady st\u00e1le nejsou jist\u00e9, kdo za \u00fatoky stoj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Frederiksen uznal, \u017ee ukvapen\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry a opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e1 reakce s sebou nesou rizika. D\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 rozv\u011bdka ve \u010dtvrtek ve\u010der uvedla, \u017ee nem\u016f\u017ee na nikoho uk\u00e1zat prstem, zat\u00edmco \u0161\u00e9f policejn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby (PET) pouze poznamenal, \u017ee \u201eriziko rusk\u00e9 sabot\u00e1\u017ee v D\u00e1nsku je vysok\u00e9\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 se denn\u011b pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s paradoxem\u00a0<\/span>hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: m\u011bli bychom, nebo nem\u011bli bychom ukazovat prstem na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou za ni odpov\u011bdn\u00ed?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Co kdy\u017e ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed (zejm\u00e9na proti Rusku) jen zhor\u0161\u00ed neshody a \u00fazkost, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed zas\u00edt? Nebo naopak, nezodpov\u011bzen\u00e1 hrozba zasko\u010d\u00ed spole\u010dnost a znemo\u017en\u00ed j\u00ed reagovat, dokud nebude nutn\u00e9 jednat pevn\u011b a rozhodn\u011b? Politicky i hypoteticky by bylo mnohem jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed sest\u0159elit rusk\u00e9 letadlo po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed Moskvy z uzav\u0159en\u00fdch leti\u0161\u0165 a celkov\u00e9ho chaosu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nad kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed Evropou se ji\u017e n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f vzn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzrak sabot\u00e1\u017ee.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e je za to zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd kdokoli, Putinovi to umo\u017enilo p\u0159en\u00e9st do Evropy rostouc\u00ed pocit konfliktu. A to se d\u011bje pr\u00e1v\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kdy Trumpova administrativa po\u017eaduje, aby Evropa p\u0159evzala odpov\u011bdnost za svou vlastn\u00ed obranu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00edky tomu jsou n\u00e1klady na nal\u00e9havou a nevyhnutelnou podporu Ukrajiny pro evropsk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti hmatateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech, kter\u00e9 se vyzna\u010dovaly hybridn\u00edmi hrozbami, byly k ji\u017e tak napjat\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm obrann\u00fdm rozpo\u010dt\u016fm p\u0159id\u00e1ny dva n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 a nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 c\u00edle: pos\u00edlen\u00ed odolnosti infrastruktury proti vp\u00e1d\u016fm dron\u016f a kybernetick\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u0161irok\u00e9 a stup\u0148ovit\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany proti rusk\u00fdm dron\u016fm a letadl\u016fm pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed hranice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1klady na ochranu p\u0159ed mno\u017estv\u00edm levn\u00fdch dron\u016f v sou\u010dasnosti neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 hrozby.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Raketa odp\u00e1len\u00e1 nizozemskou st\u00edha\u010dkou F-35 do polsk\u00e9ho nebe, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 zni\u010dit polystyrenov\u00fd dron v hodnot\u011b 30 000 dolar\u016f, m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t des\u00edtky tis\u00edc eur. Takov\u00fd syst\u00e9m je v\u0161ak z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd a p\u0159edstavuje t\u011b\u017ekou volbu: bu\u010f naru\u0161itele kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm nezastavit, nebo utratit miliony m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b za zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed spolehliv\u00e9 a nep\u0159eru\u0161ovan\u00e9 obrany vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru NATO.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale pro Kreml se neda\u0159\u00ed v\u0161echno dob\u0159e. Existuje riziko, \u017ee Rusko bude obvin\u011bno z \u010din\u016f, kter\u00e9 nesp\u00e1chalo. Nebo \u017ee bude slou\u017eit jako z\u00e1st\u011brka pro skute\u010dn\u00fd organizovan\u00fd zlo\u010din, kter\u00fd bude roz\u0161i\u0159ovat sv\u00e9 neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed aktivity. Existuje riziko, \u017ee nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa vyvol\u00e1 nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159enou reakci na jakoukoli eskalaci. Mohl by tak\u00e9 odm\u00edtnout reagovat \u00fapln\u011b nebo reagovat p\u0159ehnan\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hybridn\u00ed \u00fatoky, a\u0165 u\u017e n\u00e1hodn\u00e9 nebo \u00famysln\u00e9, prozat\u00edm nut\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 Evropany poci\u0165ovat cenu, kterou jejich vl\u00e1dy plat\u00ed za pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed podporu Ukrajiny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V uplynul\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci v\u0161ak Evropa \u010delila nov\u00fdm, n\u00e1kladn\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm, pro kter\u00e9 neexistuje ani jasn\u00fd vin\u00edk, ani levn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusko vede hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Z\u00e1padu, nen\u00ed prok\u00e1z\u00e1na, uzn\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0CNN\u00a0. V Evrop\u011b v\u0161ak zavl\u00e1dl…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89196,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[102,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89195"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89195"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89195\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}