{"id":89083,"date":"2025-10-03T00:28:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T22:28:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=89083"},"modified":"2025-10-02T18:11:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T16:11:24","slug":"andrew-korybko-ukrajina-je-uprostred-tri-propojenych-trojuhelniku-ktere-se-snazi-omezit-rusko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/03\/andrew-korybko-ukrajina-je-uprostred-tri-propojenych-trojuhelniku-ktere-se-snazi-omezit-rusko\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Ukrajina je uprost\u0159ed t\u0159\u00ed propojen\u00fdch troj\u00faheln\u00edk\u016f, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed omezit Rusko"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jde o Lublinsk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk (Ukrajina, Polsko a Litva) z roku 2020, de facto alianci mezi Ukrajinou, Polskem a Spojen\u00fdm kr\u00e1lovstv\u00edm z roku 2022 a Od\u011bsk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk s Rumunskem a Moldavskem z po\u010d\u00e1tku srpna.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko v posledn\u00edch letech soustavn\u011b obvi\u0148uje Z\u00e1pad, \u017ee z Ukrajiny d\u011bl\u00e1 \u201eantiruskou\u201c oblast za \u00fa\u010delem jej\u00edho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, na co\u017e Putin reagoval schvalov\u00e1n\u00edm prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>. Rok a p\u016fl p\u0159ed jej\u00edm zah\u00e1jen\u00edm Polsko, Litva a Ukrajina vytvo\u0159ily \u201eLublinsk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk\u201c, kter\u00fd zahrnuje vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci a\u00a0st\u00e1le se pot\u00e1c\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>p\u011bt let po sv\u00e9m vzniku. P\u0159esn\u011b t\u00fdden p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace pak Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, Polsko a Ukrajina vytvo\u0159ily\u00a0de facto alianci\u00a0<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto dva troj\u00faheln\u00edky usnadnily snahy Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed sabotovat m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na ja\u0159e 2022, za kter\u00e1 si Polsko zaslou\u017e\u00ed stejnou vinu, jak je vysv\u011btleno\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e konflikt pokra\u010duje dodnes. Hned pot\u00e9, co\u00a0<\/span>se objevila zpr\u00e1va\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee se Putin a Trump setkaj\u00ed poprv\u00e9 osobn\u011b od sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1vratu do \u00fa\u0159adu, k n\u00ed\u017e pozd\u011bji do\u0161lo\u00a0<\/span>v Anchorage\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, Ukrajina ozn\u00e1mila vytvo\u0159en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho troj\u00faheln\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>s Rumunskem a Moldavskem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Jejich \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Odessk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c je tak t\u0159et\u00edm troj\u00faheln\u00edkem zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na Ukrajinu, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je omezit Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee tyto t\u0159i vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 troj\u00faheln\u00edky budou hr\u00e1t v\u00fdznamnou roli v postkonfliktn\u00ed budoucnosti. Prvn\u00ed z nich, Lublinsk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk, zahrnuje Litvu, kter\u00e1 nyn\u00ed host\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>prvn\u00ed st\u00e1lou z\u00e1kladnu N\u011bmecka v zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Druh\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk zahrnuje zejm\u00e9na Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v\u017edy usilovalo o princip \u201erozd\u011bl a panuj\u201c. A kone\u010dn\u011b, Francie m\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1kladnu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v Rumunsku a\u00a0<\/span>bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakt\u00a0<\/span><\/a>s Moldavskem, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e tyto troj\u00faheln\u00edky vyu\u017eije jako odrazov\u00e9 m\u016fstky pro pos\u00edlen\u00ed sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>nov\u011b \u00fadajn\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v Od\u011bse\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sedm p\u0159idru\u017een\u00fdch partner\u016f Ukrajiny (p\u011bt z nich je form\u00e1ln\u00edch, zat\u00edmco dal\u0161\u00ed dva \u2013 N\u011bmecko a Francie \u2013 neform\u00e1ln\u00edch) by proto mohlo bu\u010f pokra\u010dovat v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch zbran\u00ed do zem\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu, nebo v n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 militarizaci Ukrajiny, a\/nebo se p\u0159ipravit na jejich nasazen\u00ed v zemi jednoho dne.\u00a0<\/span>Polsko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Francie\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>tak\u00e9 v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce uzav\u0159ely s Ukrajinou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakty, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>podle t\u00e9to anal\u00fdzy\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ji\u017e p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed formu z\u00e1ruk podobn\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nku 5.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak bylo naps\u00e1no, \u201e[\u010cl\u00e1nek 5] zavazuje \u010dleny pom\u00e1hat t\u011bm ze sv\u00fdch spojenc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou napadeni, i kdy\u017e to ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich \u201apova\u017euje za nezbytn\u00e9\u2018. A\u010dkoli je zm\u00edn\u011bno pou\u017eit\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, je nakonec ponech\u00e1no na jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlenech, aby se rozhodli, zda tuto mo\u017enost vyu\u017eij\u00ed. Ukrajina pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b po\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00fdhod t\u00e9to z\u00e1sady v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech letech, p\u0159esto\u017ee nen\u00ed \u010dlenem NATO, proto\u017ee od aliance obdr\u017eela v\u0161e krom\u011b voj\u00e1k\u016f.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Je proto ot\u00e1zkou, zda se Ukrajina n\u011bkdy form\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159ipoj\u00ed k NATO, proto\u017ee by to nezaru\u010dilo, \u017ee jej\u00ed spojenci vy\u0161lou vojska na jej\u00ed podporu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vypuknut\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho konfliktu. Realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pouze obnovili a pot\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161ili pomoc, kterou ji\u017e poskytuj\u00ed, aby se vyhnuli potenci\u00e1ln\u011b apokalyptick\u00e9mu konfliktu s Ruskem. Rychl\u00e1 militarizace EU spolu s pokrokem v oblasti \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00e9ho Schengenu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c pro usnadn\u011bn\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00ed logistiky by mohla vytvo\u0159it trval\u00e9 postkonfliktn\u00ed hrozby pro bezpe\u010dnost Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch p\u011bt partner\u016f Ukrajiny by tak mohlo z Polska a Rumunska rozm\u00edstit velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f, skladovat velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 techniky a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b pokra\u010dovat v p\u0159esunech zbran\u00ed a munice p\u0159es hranice, a to bu\u010f za \u00fa\u010delem prodlou\u017een\u00ed konfliktu, nebo n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 militarizace Ukrajiny. Rusko tyto v\u011brohodn\u00e9 hrozby jist\u011b zohledn\u00ed p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o nejlep\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobu ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu v souladu se sv\u00fdmi n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy, kter\u00e9 se po 3,5 letech od zah\u00e1jen\u00ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace vyvinuly.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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\"\"<\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jde o Lublinsk\u00fd troj\u00faheln\u00edk (Ukrajina, Polsko a Litva) z roku 2020, de facto alianci mezi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":89084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,26,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89083"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}