{"id":88997,"date":"2025-10-02T00:23:23","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T22:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88997"},"modified":"2025-10-01T13:07:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T11:07:08","slug":"jak-gronsko-vyvraci-klimaticke-modely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/10\/02\/jak-gronsko-vyvraci-klimaticke-modely\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak Gr\u00f3nsko vyvrac\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 modely"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed se \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee gr\u00f3nsk\u00e1 taj\u00edc\u00ed voda odt\u00e9k\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo do oce\u00e1nu a zp\u016fsobuje stoup\u00e1n\u00ed hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 studie ukazuje, \u017ee tomu tak nen\u00ed. Sp\u00ed\u0161e v\u011bt\u0161ina t\u00e9to vody znovu zamrz\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Gr\u00f3nsko, ze v\u0161ech m\u00edst, kter\u00e9 bylo po desetilet\u00ed vykreslov\u00e1no jako hlavn\u00ed bod zlomu apokalypsy, se uk\u00e1zalo b\u00fdt tvrdohlav\u00fdm kazitelem z\u00e1bavy. Nov\u00e1 studie publikovan\u00e1 v Nature Communications pod n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Odtok gr\u00f3nsk\u00e9ho ledov\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edkrovu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00fd op\u011btovn\u00fdm zamrznut\u00edm taj\u00edc\u00ed vody v hol\u00e9m ledu<\/span><\/a> \u201c ukazuje, \u017ee led se ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f. M\u00edsto toho, aby nechal ve\u0161kerou taj\u00edc\u00ed vodu proudit do mo\u0159e jako protr\u017een\u00e1 hr\u00e1z, ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov jednodu\u0161e absorbuje velk\u00e9 kusy, v noci je znovu zamrzne a nikdy je nepos\u00edl\u00e1 sm\u011brem k oce\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk\u016f se dosud pou\u017eit\u00e9 modely m\u00fdl\u00ed a\u017e o 67 procent. Gigatuny vody, kter\u00e9 by \u00fadajn\u011b zp\u016fsobily \u201evzestup hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed\u201c, jednodu\u0161e neexistuj\u00ed, proto\u017ee se nikdy nedostanou do oce\u00e1nu. D\u016fvod spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v prost\u00e9m faktu, \u017ee model\u00e1\u0159i led \u0161patn\u011b ch\u00e1pali. Hol\u00fd ledovcov\u00fd led vn\u00edmali jako neproniknutelnou desku, jako \u017eulovou kuchy\u0148skou desku. V\u0161echno, co se na n\u011bm roztav\u00ed, okam\u017eit\u011b odte\u010de.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je v\u0161ak povrch por\u00e9zn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jako houba. Voda prosakuje, zachycuje se a p\u0159es noc znovu zamrz\u00e1. Auto\u0159i studie p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed: \u201eOdtok vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed na hol\u00e9m ledu je zcela a p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n hladin\u011b mo\u0159e, a to navzdory rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu ter\u00e9nn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v o v\u00fdznamn\u00e9m zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed vody z t\u00e1n\u00ed na hol\u00e9m ledu nebo v n\u011bm.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

V 70. letech n\u00e1m byl v\u0161t\u011bpov\u00e1n hroz\u00edc\u00ed konec sv\u011bta v podob\u011b nov\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9. V 80. letech se \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee ostrovn\u00ed st\u00e1ty zmiz\u00ed do roku 2000. V roce 2007 si \u201ep\u0159edn\u00ed v\u011bdci\u201c byli jisti, \u017ee Arktida bude do roku 2013 bez ledu. Dnes, dvan\u00e1ct let po uplynut\u00ed t\u00e9to lh\u016fty, je na vod\u00e1ch obklopuj\u00edc\u00edch severn\u00ed p\u00f3l st\u00e1le led. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se v\u0161echny klimatick\u00e9 modely rok co rok m\u00fdl\u00ed? Na tom nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed. To nepom\u00e1h\u00e1 reputaci ekonom\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed dokonce mus\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed \u201erevidovat\u201c sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, jejich reputaci nepom\u00e1h\u00e1. V\u017edycky se najde n\u011bjak\u00e1 v\u011brohodn\u011b zn\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdmluva, pro\u010d se p\u0159edpov\u011bdi nenaplnily, jak se d\u0159\u00edve tvrdilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledky nov\u00e9 studie z Gr\u00f3nska op\u011bt ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fadajn\u011b \u201ezaveden\u00e1 v\u011bda\u201c klimatick\u00fdch fanatik\u016f ve skute\u010dnosti obsahuje mnoho nejistot a nezn\u00e1m\u00fdch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch, kter\u00e9 nakonec prom\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed cel\u00e9 modely v nespolehliv\u00e9 dohady. M\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt pravda, nemus\u00ed \u2013 ale v\u017edy p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed to nejhor\u0161\u00ed. Panik\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a stra\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se objevuj\u00ed v titulc\u00edch mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, v\u0161ak nemaj\u00ed se skute\u010dnou v\u011bdou nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed se \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee gr\u00f3nsk\u00e1 taj\u00edc\u00ed voda odt\u00e9k\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo do oce\u00e1nu a zp\u016fsobuje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88998,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3484,873,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88997"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88997"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88997\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}