{"id":8880,"date":"2022-03-06T05:23:03","date_gmt":"2022-03-06T04:23:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=8880"},"modified":"2022-03-06T05:23:03","modified_gmt":"2022-03-06T04:23:03","slug":"zdenek-fiala-koruna-v-klestich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/03\/06\/zdenek-fiala-koruna-v-klestich\/","title":{"rendered":"Zden\u011bk Fiala: Koruna v kle\u0161t\u00edch"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka m\u00e1 kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost rozpou\u0161t\u011bt sv\u00e9 nabub\u0159el\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy, zat\u00edmco \u010desk\u00e9 pen\u011b\u017eenky rabuje inflace a pokles kurzu.<\/div>\n
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V\u00a0debat\u00e1ch o p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m vstupu do euroz\u00f3ny v\u00a0\u010cesku obvykle p\u0159eva\u017euje argumentace o nev\u00fdhod\u00e1ch, kter\u00fdm kraluje ztr\u00e1ta kontroly nad m\u011bnovou politikou. Nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme vyt\u00e1hnout stejn\u00fd argument v\u00a0kritice, pro\u010d v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b d\u00e1vno nejsme.<\/p>\n

Inflace neru\u0161en\u011b pokra\u010duje, v\u00a0lednu dokonce skoro na 10 procent, a \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka na tom nezm\u011bnila nic, p\u0159esto\u017ee jej\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba vysko\u010dila p\u011bt procent nad evropskou \u00farokovou hladinu, jako bychom chodili naz\u00ed a \u017eivili se v\u00fdvozem ban\u00e1n\u016f. Dal\u0161\u00ed extr\u00e9m za hranic\u00ed civilizovan\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy, kter\u00e9 dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b p\u0159esahuj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stku, kterou disponuje vl\u00e1da ve st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu nebo kterou tvo\u0159\u00ed \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh.<\/p>\n

Inflace i vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby drancuj\u00ed pen\u011b\u017eenky ob\u010dan\u016f, ale tam se nezastav\u00ed. Op\u0159ou se do i st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladny, proto\u017ee prudce zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady nov\u00e9ho dluhu. A po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b to odnesou tak\u00e9 ti, kdo do tohoto dluhu investuj\u00ed, proto\u017ee star\u00e9 dluhopisy s\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u00faro\u010den\u00edm spadly s\u00a0cenou o n\u011bkolik pater n\u00ed\u017e.<\/p>\n

Podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy Ministerstva financ\u00ed \u010cR v\u00a0polovin\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku \u010dinil \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh 2\u00a0269 miliard korun, ale jeho tr\u017en\u00ed hodnota byla 2\u00a0315 miliard korun. To, \u017ee tr\u017en\u00ed hodnota byla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hodnota nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed, znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jste si museli p\u0159iplatit, kdy\u017e jste se cht\u011bli z\u00fa\u010dastnit. Popt\u00e1vka po \u010desk\u00e9m dluhu po dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta n\u00e1sobn\u011b p\u0159evy\u0161ovala nab\u00eddku. A te\u010f nahl\u00e9dn\u011bme do tabulky o sou\u010dasn\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdmi st\u00e1tn\u00edmi dluhopisy. Prudk\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB srazilo pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 ceny \u010desk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f zhruba o deset procent. To jen opravdu drsn\u00fd propad\u00e1k. Mluv\u00edme o ztr\u00e1t\u011b kolem 200 miliard korun.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.patria.cz\/kurzy\/online\/CZ0001005920\/bond.html?type=govcz#online<\/a><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pokles ceny z\u00e1konit\u011b zas\u00e1hl \u010desk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy s\u00a0nejdel\u0161\u00ed splatnost\u00ed, proto\u017ee jejich n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00faro\u010den\u00ed bude nejd\u00e9le trp\u011bt odstupem od trhu. T\u0159icetilet\u00fd dluhopis s\u00a0kuponem 1,5 procenta a splatn\u00fd roku 2040 se nyn\u00ed prod\u00e1v\u00e1 za t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny ceny. Jedna \u010dtvrtina investice je tak tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc v\u00a0\u010dudu.<\/p>\n

Pro st\u00e1t je to radost, \u017ee si opat\u0159il tak levn\u00e9 pen\u00edze, ale investo\u0159i se mohou c\u00edtit o\u0161izeni, kdy\u017e jim \u010cNB v\u00a0rozporu s\u00a0postupem jin\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank namydlila schody. Polovina st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f m\u00e1 zbytkovou dobu do splatnosti do t\u0159\u00ed let, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se budou muset brzy refinancovat. Cel\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh tak prudce zdra\u017e\u00ed, a zp\u016fsob\u00ed to jak vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB, tak obavy z\u00a0nevypo\u010ditateln\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n

Kdo na\u0161e dlouhodob\u00e9 dluhopisy dr\u017e\u00ed a neprod\u00e1v\u00e1, m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt chv\u00edli pocit, \u017ee se nic ned\u011bje. M\u00e1 po\u0159\u00e1d sto procent a m\u016f\u017ee sp\u00e1t dob\u0159e. Ale jen do chv\u00edle, kdy se probud\u00ed s\u00a0mokr\u00fdm \u010delem, nebo\u0165 mu zl\u00fd sen p\u0159ipomenul, \u017ee kdy\u017e si takhle nechal pen\u00edze v\u00e1zan\u00e9 ve star\u00fdch pap\u00edrech, dostane r\u00e1nu z\u00a0druh\u00e9 strany. Na trhu vl\u00e1dne podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos mezi 3,3 a\u017e 4 procenty. Co kdy\u017e to vydr\u017e\u00ed hodn\u011b dlouho? Co \u0159ekne \u0161\u00e9f\u016fm o zmarn\u011bn\u00fdch investic\u00edch, a\u017e mu ti rozzloben\u00ed mu\u017ei rozraz\u00ed dve\u0159e bez zaklep\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Nejv\u00fdnosn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou te\u010f ty \u010desk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, jejich\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 v\u00fdplaty se dvakr\u00e1t ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobuj\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9mu v\u00fdnosu na trhu. M\u00e1me tam dva p\u011btilet\u00e9, prvn\u00ed se splatnost\u00ed v\u00a0roce 2023 a druh\u00fd sotva vybalen\u00fd, splatn\u00fd a\u017e roku 2027. Tam je v\u00fdnos mezi 4,5 a 4,7 procenta, co\u017e z\u00e1rove\u0148 znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kdo by se cht\u011bl t\u011bchto pap\u00edr\u016f zbavit p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b, dostane k\u00a0tomu sv\u00fdch sto procent p\u016fvodn\u00ed investice. Ale to je v\u00fdjimka, v\u011bt\u0161ina ostatn\u00edch \u010desk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f se prod\u00e1v\u00e1 s velkou ztr\u00e1tou p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed mnohalet\u00fd v\u00fdnos.<\/p>\n

Prudk\u00e9 zdra\u017een\u00ed nov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu, o kter\u00e9 se postarala \u010cNB, znamen\u00e1 slib vysok\u00e9ho v\u00fdnosu pro investory. Budeme jim d\u00e1vat hodn\u011b pen\u011bz, v\u00edc ne\u017e kdokoliv na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, kam chceme. Ale vlastn\u011b ani nechceme, jak dokl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1\u0161 postoj k\u00a0euru. Proto v\u00a0t\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu, do kter\u00e9 budou investovat zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i, se zaslou\u017e\u00edme o vysoce nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch statistik zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i dr\u017e\u00ed jen mal\u00fd pod\u00edl ve financov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu. Velkou \u010d\u00e1st dr\u017e\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 banky, tam to m\u00e1me v\u00a0suchu. Opravdu? V\u0161echny velk\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 banky jsou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed. V\u0161echny u n\u00e1s vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed obvykle v\u00edc ne\u017e zahrani\u010dn\u00ed matky. I ony p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k\u00a0obrovsk\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozu dividend a dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f, kter\u00fd v\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce dos\u00e1hl 330 miliard korun.<\/p>\n

Situaci n\u00e1m zhor\u0161uje tak\u00e9 pokles kurzu koruny, kter\u00e1 se t\u011b\u017ece prob\u00edjela pod 25 CZK\/EUR, ale nyn\u00ed znovu m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k\u00a026 CZK\/EUR, ne-li k je\u0161t\u011b slab\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m. Je to dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro v\u00fdvozce d\u0159ev\u011bn\u00e9 kulatiny z\u00a0k\u016frovcov\u00fdch les\u016f (ale prkna jsme vozili z\u00a0Ruska a Ukrajiny, proto te\u010f na trhu chyb\u00ed). Je to dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro v\u00fdvozce obil\u00ed, ml\u00e9ka a \u017eiv\u00e9ho skotu (ale v\u00fdrobky z\u00a0nich dov\u00e1\u017e\u00edme a obchodn\u00ed schodek v\u00a0tomto sektoru nar\u016fst\u00e1). V\u00fd\u010det dobr\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v o oslaben\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 m\u011bny je tak nejlep\u0161\u00edm obr\u00e1zkem toho, jak to \u010deskou ekonomiku devastuje. Nepot\u0159ebujeme podporu v\u00fdvozu s\u00a0n\u00edzkou p\u0159idanou hodnotou, pot\u0159ebujeme stoupat po hodnotov\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci, abychom se propracovali v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e k\u00a0jedn\u00e9 t\u0159etin\u011b n\u011bmeck\u00fdch mezd.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka nyn\u00ed za\u010dala intervenovat ve prosp\u011bch koruny, to je prvn\u00ed dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va po dlouh\u00fdch letech. P\u0159ipome\u0148me si, \u017ee slavn\u00e9ho 7. listopadu (nikoliv po v\u00fdst\u0159elu z\u00a0Aurory, ale po zased\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady roku 2014) za\u010dala \u010cNB v\u00a0prudk\u00e9m hnut\u00ed mysli investovat do oslaben\u00ed m\u011bny na 27 CZK\/EUR. Za guvern\u00e9ra Singera to st\u00e1lo jeden bilion korun, a bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po n\u00e1stupu guvern\u00e9ra Rusnoka, kter\u00fd se z\u00a0toho m\u011bl vyprostit, dal\u0161\u00ed bilion. Devizov\u00e9 rezervy rostly i ptom a nyn\u00ed je m\u00e1me na \u00farovni 3,8 bilionu korun. P\u0159ed vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm \u201ekurzov\u00e9ho z\u00e1vazku\u201c to byla \u010dtvrtina t\u00e9to hodnoty pro obvykl\u00e9 pokryt\u00ed t\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch dovoz\u016f.<\/p>\n

Obrovsk\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy v\u00a0dolarech a eurech znamenaly, \u017ee n\u011bkdo jin\u00fd si v\u00a0tomto objemu opat\u0159il koruny. Prodejem takov\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed korun se vlastn\u011b \u010cNB dobrovoln\u011b zbavila nez\u00e1vislosti, proto\u017ee \u010dty\u0159i biliony jsou siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ona, i kdyby byla sebezpupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Investo\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed do toho vlo\u017eili ty neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e9 prachy, se necht\u011bli korun zbavit, dokud nebude \u0161ance, \u017ee na nich po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vyd\u011blaj\u00ed. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investory nevyl\u00e1kalo z\u00a0korunov\u00fdch doupat ani prudk\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry, iniciovan\u00e9 \u010cNB, kter\u00e9 m\u011blo korunu posilovat a nab\u00edzet onen po\u017eadovan\u00fd v\u00fdnos. Osobn\u011b soud\u00edm, \u017ee to byl jeho hlavn\u00ed smysl, jinak by nebylo tak velk\u00e9. Ale pro\u010d se vzd\u00e1vat t\u0159eba i slab\u0161\u00edch korun, kdy\u017e tak p\u011bkn\u011b nesou na \u00faroc\u00edch?<\/p>\n

R\u016f\u017eov\u00fdmi vyhl\u00eddkami ot\u0159\u00e1sla a\u017e v\u00e1lka. Jsme tu na r\u00e1n\u011b. Na pomoc n\u00e1m p\u0159i\u0161lo riziko, \u017ee kdo zasp\u00ed, ten na korun\u011b brzy hrozn\u011b ztrat\u00ed. Koruna kles\u00e1, hodn\u011b se prod\u00e1v\u00e1, a \u010cNB intervenuje, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se na t\u011bch prodej\u00edch sveze. A kolik toho z\u00a0t\u011bch sv\u00fdch nebety\u010dn\u00fdch rezerv ud\u00e1, uvid\u00edme a\u017e za p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f v\u00a0pravideln\u011b zve\u0159ej\u0148ovan\u00e9 bilanci.<\/p>\n

Kdybychom m\u011bli euro, neute\u010deme vysok\u00e9 cen\u011b ropy a plynu (pokud v\u016fbec budou), ale dolehne na n\u00e1s o trochu m\u00ed\u0148, proto\u017ee by tam nebyl prudk\u00fd pokles kurzu koruny a nebyli bychom od\u00edr\u00e1ni vysok\u00fdmi \u00faroky. Koruna je mal\u00e1 a bl\u00edzko ohn\u011b, proto oslabuje, a \u010cNB mus\u00ed z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyv\u00edjet extr\u00e9mn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed, aby napravila star\u00e9 chyby, proto mus\u00ed zvedat sazby nesrovnateln\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e jin\u00ed. Oboj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b sni\u017euje konkurenceschopnost \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky. To je t\u00e9ma, kter\u00e9 by nem\u011blo zapadnout ani v\u00a0t\u00e9to pohnut\u00e9 dob\u011b.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Zden\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka m\u00e1 kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost rozpou\u0161t\u011bt sv\u00e9 nabub\u0159el\u00e9 devizov\u00e9 rezervy, zat\u00edmco \u010desk\u00e9 pen\u011b\u017eenky rabuje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1024,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1292,683,433,90],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8880"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8880\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}