{"id":88771,"date":"2025-09-28T05:53:24","date_gmt":"2025-09-28T03:53:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88771"},"modified":"2025-09-28T05:53:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-28T03:53:24","slug":"michael-svatos-putin-provede-druhou-mobilizaci-a-gerasimov-druhou-invazi-pres-dnepr-analyza-prvni-cast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/28\/michael-svatos-putin-provede-druhou-mobilizaci-a-gerasimov-druhou-invazi-pres-dnepr-analyza-prvni-cast\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Putin provede \u201cdruhou\u201d mobilizaci !? A Gerasimov \u201cdruhou\u201d invazi p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr ?! Anal\u00fdza \u2013 prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza je prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti anal\u00fdzy mno\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se n\u00e1znak\u016f, \u017ee se Vladim\u00edr Putin chyst\u00e1 r\u00e1zn\u011b rozhodnout v\u00e1lku o Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

(1)\u00a050 000 rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k\u016f se pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159esouv\u00e1 ze z\u00e1lohy do v\u00fdchodi\u0161\u0165 nov\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy. C\u00edl: vyvolat na Ukrajin\u011b chaos a novou velkou uprchlickou krizi.<\/h3>\n
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50 000 rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k\u016f, celkem 5 brig\u00e1d se pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do v\u00fdchodi\u0161\u0165 nov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy. Vysv\u011btlivky: III = pluk, X = brig\u00e1da, XX = divize, XXX = sbor, XXXX = arm\u00e1da. Cel\u00fd pl\u00e1n ofenz\u00edvy podrobn\u011b pops\u00e1n v anal\u00fdze.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy \u201cSboru n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty\u201d, kter\u00fd se podle analytik\u016f pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159esunuje do v\u00fdchodi\u0161\u0165 sv\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, je dos\u00e1hnout jihoz\u00e1padn\u00edch okraj\u016f m\u011bsta\u00a0Druzhkivka<\/a>, (p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou 56 000 obyvatel).<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 jednotky nyn\u00ed stoj\u00ed 23km jihoz\u00e1padn\u011b p\u0159ed m\u011bstem Druzhivka. Prvn\u00edm c\u00edlem jejich \u00fatoku bude ovl\u00e1dnout vesnici Torecke, (na map\u011b \u010dern\u00e9 kole\u010dko se \u0161ipkou, kter\u00e1 ukazuje na m\u011bsto Druzhivka). Z fronty je k Torecke 10km, z Torecke je ke Druzhivce 12 km. Cel\u00fd p\u0159esun i \u00fatok je prov\u00e1d\u011bn pod\u00e9l d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zpevn\u011bn\u00e9 komunikace, kter\u00e1 vede zhruba pod\u00e9l prost\u0159edn\u00ed p\u0159eru\u0161ovan\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u0161ipky, a d\u00e1le pak pod\u00e9l druh\u00e9 prav\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u0161ipky, a\u017e do m\u011bsta Druzhivka, tak\u017ee podzimn\u00ed \u201crasputica\u201d ruskou logistickou podporu \u00fatoku nezastav\u00ed.<\/p>\n

M\u011bsto Druzhivka je hlavn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd logistick\u00fd uzel, ze kter\u00e9ho se z\u00e1sobuje obrana m\u011bsta Konstantinivka, (p\u0159e\u0161krtnut\u00e9 oran\u017eov\u00e9 kolo vpravo naho\u0159e). Jakmile Rusov\u00e9 tuto z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed art\u00e9rii vy\u0159ad\u00ed drony a d\u011bly z provozu, ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrana v Konstantinivce bude od\u0159\u00edznuta od p\u0159\u00edsunu posil a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch pot\u0159eb, a rychle ztrat\u00ed bojeschopnost. A p\u0159estane b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1. A Rusov\u00e9 si j\u00ed p\u0159estanou v\u0161\u00edmat. Stejn\u011b jako si nen\u00ed nev\u0161\u00edmaj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00fdch ve sklepech dom\u016f v aglomeraci Pokrovsk \u2013 Myrnohrad. Ti jsou ve sklepech zcela znehybn\u011bni tis\u00edci rusk\u00fdmi \u201csed\u00edc\u00edmi\u201d drony, kter\u00e9 nehybn\u011b na zemi ve m\u011bst\u011b trp\u011bliv\u011b \u010dekaj\u00ed, kdo se ze sklepa odv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed vystr\u010dit nos.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinci vyzkou\u0161eli proti t\u011bmto \u201csed\u00edc\u00edm rusk\u00fdm dron\u016fm na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech\u201d novou taktiku, a vyslali do obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00e9 aglomerace svoje vlastn\u00ed roje mal\u00fdch dron\u016f FPV, a ty m\u011bly na \u201crusk\u00e9 sed\u00edc\u00ed drony\u201d ze vzduchu h\u00e1zet mal\u00e9 s\u00ed\u0165ky, a tak jim zamezit, aby znovu na povel oper\u00e1tora vzl\u00e9tly, kdy\u017e se v jejich okol\u00ed objev\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fd ten Ukrajinec. Operace selhala, proto\u017ee \u201cukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00ed\u0165kov\u00e9 drony FPV\u201d nebyly ve m\u011bstsk\u00e9 z\u00e1stavb\u011b schopny vy\u010denichat v \u00fakrytech nehybn\u011b \u010d\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed \u201csed\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 drony na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech\u201d. Tato hra rusk\u00fdch oper\u00e1tor\u016f dron\u016f na \u010d\u00edhanou se ukazuje jako velmi efektivn\u00ed, a zat\u00edm proti n\u00ed Ukrajinci nena\u0161li protiopat\u0159en\u00ed. Rusk\u00e9 drony na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech nelze elektronicky ru\u0161it. Do obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00e9ho m\u011bsta Porovsk jich ka\u017ed\u00fd den p\u0159il\u00e9t\u00e1 700, a ty se p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed k dal\u0161\u00edm \u010d\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm dron\u016fm, kter\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b nevy\u010d\u00edhaly sv\u00e9ho Ukrajince. Jak dlouho dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u201c\u010d\u00edhac\u00ed\u201d drony nehybn\u011b \u010d\u00edhat, se zat\u00edm p\u0159esn\u011b netu\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

M\u011bsto Druzhivka, hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy sboru n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k\u016f je prvn\u00edm m\u011bstem v aglomeraci Druzhivka \u2013 Kramatorsk \u2013 Slovjansk.\u00a0 Kramatorsk m\u00e1 147 000 obyvatel, a jeho st\u0159ed le\u017e\u00ed 15km severn\u011b od st\u0159edu m\u011bsta Druzhivka. Slovjansk\u00a0 m\u00e1 122 000 obyvatel a jeho st\u0159ed le\u017e\u00ed 13km severn\u011b od st\u0159edu m\u011bsta Kramatorsk. Technicky tak jde o jednu velkou pr\u016fmyslovou aglomeraci, a jakmile ta se dostane cel\u00e1 pod dolet rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech, v\u010detn\u011b jejich \u010d\u00edhac\u00edch variant, asi 150 000 Ukrajinc\u016f se d\u00e1 okam\u017eit\u011b do pohybu do ukrajinsk\u00e9ho vnitrozem\u00ed, a 100 000 je bude rychle n\u00e1sledovat, proto\u017ee v cel\u00e9 t\u00e9to obrovsk\u00e9 aglomeraci rusk\u00e9 drony zastav\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00fd \u017eivot, i z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b dod\u00e1vek vody, elekt\u0159iny i plynu.<\/p>\n

Ze severu proti aglomeraci Slovjansk \u2013 Kramatorsk \u2013 Dru\u017eivka, na \u00fastrety ofenz\u00edv\u011b rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny ST\u0158ED gener\u00e1la Solud\u010duka, postupuje rusk\u00e1 opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina Z\u00c1PAD gener\u00e1la Kuzovleva. Hlavn\u00ed sm\u011br postupu Kuzovlevov\u00fdch arm\u00e1dy m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k severov\u00fdchodn\u00edm okraj\u016fm Slovjansk, respektive tak, aby bylo \u201c\u010d\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi drony\u201d p\u0159eru\u0161eno z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed vedouc\u00ed ze Slovjansku do m\u011bsta Siversk, kter\u00e9 je nejv\u00fdchodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdspou ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany na Donbase.<\/p>\n

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Mapa ukazuje celkov\u00fd\u00a0z\u00e1mysl rusk\u00e9 podzimn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy<\/a>. Popis v textu anal\u00fdzy pod mapou.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ze severov\u00fdchodu u\u017e \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b postupuj\u00ed 20. a 25. arm\u00e1da opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny st\u0159ed gener\u00e1la Kuzovleva. Oba svazky byly p\u0159ed ofenz\u00edvou dopln\u011bny\u00a0variantami tank\u016f T-90<\/a>, a\u00a0dostaly letos i nov\u00e9 agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed velen\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Z jihoz\u00e1padu postupuje rusk\u00e1 8. arm\u00e1da, opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny St\u0159ed gener\u00e1la Solod\u010duka. Ta m\u00e1 mezi rusk\u00fdmi arm\u00e1dami v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed, proto\u017ee v jej\u00ed sestav\u011b nebojuj\u00ed jen divize a samostatn\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy, ale i cel\u00fd 68. arm\u00e1dn\u00ed sbor, a nyn\u00ed i nov\u00e1 posila \u2013 Sbor n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty. Jde tak technicky vzato o dv\u011b siln\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. Oba \u00fatoky zn\u00e1zor\u0148uj\u00ed rud\u00e9 \u0161ipky. Zelen\u00e1 elipsa je prostor, kter\u00fd Rusov\u00e9 pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed nejprve \u201cvybydlet\u201d drony od obyvatel, a potom podrobit \u201c\u010d\u00edhan\u00e9\u201d na schovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky. M\u011bsta Konstantinivka a Siversk maj\u00ed b\u00fdt obkl\u00ed\u010dena. To je v\u0161ak podle v\u0161eho sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed c\u00edl ofenz\u00edvy. Hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl je dostat pod dolet dron\u016f aglomeraci Dru\u017ekovka \u2013 Kramatorsk \u2013 Slovjansk, a u\u010dinit ji nepou\u017eitelnou jako z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna pro Ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du, a kompletn\u011b ji vybydlet.<\/p>\n

Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1l Gerasimov je velmistr rafinovanosti a nov\u00e1torsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstup\u016f k veden\u00ed v\u00e1lek. Nejprve p\u0159echytra\u010dil Ukrajince demonstrativn\u00edm klamn\u00fdm n\u00e1jezdem na Kyjev, aby, dokud Ukrajinci nezmobilizuj\u00ed, rychle ovl\u00e1dnul cel\u00fd slab\u011b br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fd suchozemsk\u00fd most vedouc\u00ed p\u0159es Mariupol na Krym. N\u00e1sledn\u011b je vyl\u00e1kal k protiofenz\u00edv\u011b proti slab\u011b br\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm lini\u00edm mezi Charkovem a severn\u00edmi \u010d\u00e1stmi Luhansk\u00e9 gubernie, tak aby vrhli v\u0161echny svoje zmobilizovan\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy k obsazen\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed bez jak\u00e9hokoli strategick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu, a ztratili tak \u010das, a dali Putinovi z\u00e1minku k mobilizaci, a sou\u010dasn\u011b umo\u017enili Rus\u016fm p\u0159eskupen\u00ed k obran\u011b suchozemsk\u00e9ho mostu. A kdy\u017e si Ukrajinci tuto dal\u0161\u00ed chybu op\u011bt uv\u011bdomili, vl\u00e1kal je do dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 pasti, a zat\u00e1hnul je do zbyte\u010dn\u00fdch vyhlazovac\u00edch boj\u016f o Bachmut, a p\u0159i nich chladnokrevn\u011b a lhostejn\u011b m\u011bnil jednoho Prigo\u017einem placen\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho krimin\u00e1ln\u00edka za 2 ukrajinsk\u00e9ho vlastence, elitn\u00ed voj\u00e1ky, nebo nad\u0161en\u00e9 dobrovoln\u00edky. A kdy\u017e duchem zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed komand\u00fd\u0159i op\u011bt proz\u0159eli, a kone\u010dn\u011b vrhli sv\u00e9 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed jednotky proti suchozemsk\u00e9mu mostu na Krym, nechal je vykrv\u00e1cet na p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 Surovikinov\u011b obrann\u00e9 linii. A loni je pak vys\u00edlen\u00e9 a vykrven\u00e9 zahnal od Avdijivky, Vuhedaru, Selidova, a Velyke Novosilky, aby definitivn\u011b zajistil bezpe\u010dnost strategick\u00e9ho suchozemsk\u00e9ho mostu vedouc\u00edho na Krym. A letos jim p\u0159ipravil dal\u0161\u00ed delikatesy. Nejprve trp\u011bliv\u00e9 vyhlazov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f krou\u017e\u00edc\u00edmi rusk\u00fdmi drony na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech \u2013 v kursk\u00e9m v\u00fdb\u011b\u017eku. A potom vyhlazov\u00e1n\u00ed sed\u00edc\u00edmi \u010d\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi rusk\u00fdmi drony na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech \u2013 na Donbase. Le\u010d i strategie trp\u011bliv\u00e9ho vyhlazovan\u00ed Ukrajinc\u016f nen\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00e1, a Gerasimov u\u017e zjevn\u011b chyst\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed nov\u00e9 p\u0159edstaven\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 nerovn\u00e9 h\u0159e zku\u0161en\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 ko\u010dky s naivn\u00ed ukrajinskou my\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Podle ukrajinsk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy zbytku \u201cneokupovan\u00e9ho\u201d Donbasu n\u011bm z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 200 a\u017e 250 tis\u00edc lid\u00ed, rusk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva je tedy m\u00e1 d\u00e1t p\u0159ed leto\u0161n\u00ed zimou do pohybu.\u00a0V noci dne\u0161ek\u00a0<\/a>rusk\u00e9 rakety a drony op\u011bt ude\u0159ily na m\u011bsto Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed<\/a>, a v n\u011bm \u017eije p\u0159es p\u016flmilionu lid\u00ed, a rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b u\u017e zb\u00fdv\u00e1 p\u00e1r posledn\u00edch kilometr\u016f, aby dostala cel\u00e9 m\u011bsto pod kontrolu sv\u00fdch dron\u016f. V obdobn\u00e9 situaci je i Charkov a Sumy. Se zimou se tak m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1t 1 a\u017e 2 miliony Ukrajinc\u016f do nucen\u00e9ho pohybu na Z\u00e1pad. A zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee jde o sou\u010d\u00e1st \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho pl\u00e1nu. Ten rozebereme podrobn\u011b v z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 anal\u00fdze.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza je prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti anal\u00fdzy mno\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se n\u00e1znak\u016f, \u017ee se Vladim\u00edr Putin chyst\u00e1 r\u00e1zn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":46149,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1929,102,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88771"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88771"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88771\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}