{"id":88614,"date":"2025-09-26T06:20:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T04:20:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88614"},"modified":"2025-09-26T06:20:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T04:20:42","slug":"andrew-korybko-pet-nejpravdepodobnejsich-duvodu-trumpova-obratu-v-otazce-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/26\/andrew-korybko-pet-nejpravdepodobnejsich-duvodu-trumpova-obratu-v-otazce-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: P\u011bt nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f Trumpova obratu v ot\u00e1zce Ukrajiny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka dos\u00e1hla velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho bodu, kdy by nap\u011bt\u00ed mohlo brzy p\u0159er\u016fst v nekontrolovatelnou situaci.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n
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Trump p\u0159ekvapil sv\u011bt dlouh\u00fdm vzkazem, v n\u011bm\u017e vyj\u00e1d\u0159il sv\u016fj nov\u00fd n\u00e1zor, \u017ee Ukrajina by mohla nejen z\u00edskat zp\u011bt cel\u00e9 sv\u00e9 ztracen\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, pokud si udr\u017e\u00ed podporu NATO, ale mohla by dokonce \u201ej\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l\u201c! Zat\u00edm nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda m\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b v \u00famyslu opakovat Bidenovu politiku podpory Ukrajiny \u201etak dlouho, jak bude t\u0159eba\u201c, co\u017e by mohlo prom\u011bnit konflikt v novou \u201ev\u011b\u010dnou v\u00e1lku\u201c a\/nebo riskovat t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku s Ruskem. Zde je v\u0161ak p\u011bt nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f tohoto r\u00e9torick\u00e9ho obratu:<\/p>\n

1. Projevit nespokojenost s Putinem<\/h2>\n

Trump si myslel, \u017ee jeho p\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed s Putinem mu pom\u016f\u017ee vyjednat m\u00edr, ale nestalo se tak, proto\u017ee Putin odm\u00edtl u\u010dinit vojensko-strategick\u00e9 \u00fastupky na Ukrajin\u011b v\u00fdm\u011bnou za sl\u00edben\u00e9 americk\u00e9 investice. Trump tak\u00e9 neprojevil z\u00e1jem p\u0159im\u011bt Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby u\u010dinil tot\u00e9\u017e v\u00fdm\u011bnou za Putinovo povolen\u00ed t\u011bchto investic do rusk\u00e9ho sektoru zdroj\u016f. Trumpovo poselstv\u00ed bylo tedy zp\u016fsobem, jak vyj\u00e1d\u0159it svou nespokojenost s Putinem tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 tomuto dilematu s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem, za jeho\u017e vznik je s\u00e1m zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd.<\/p>\n

2. Vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed spokojenosti s Ukrajinou a NATO<\/h2>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jeho zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00ed sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o jeho spokojenosti s Ukrajinou a NATO, pot\u00e9 co ka\u017ed\u00e1 z nich ustoupila jeho po\u017eadavk\u016fm, ka\u017ed\u00e1 sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem: prvn\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee na ja\u0159e p\u0159ijala zm\u011bn\u011bnou dohodu o nerostn\u00fdch surovin\u00e1ch, a druh\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee letos v l\u00e9t\u011b souhlasila s n\u00e1kupem nov\u00fdch americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed za vysokou cenu, aby je mohla p\u0159ev\u00e9st na Ukrajinu. Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o spole\u010dn\u00e9m c\u00edli u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it Rusku strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku je tedy to nejmen\u0161\u00ed, co m\u016f\u017ee na opl\u00e1tku ud\u011blat. To je tak\u00e9 povzbuzuje, aby se pod\u0159\u00eddili jeho budouc\u00edm po\u017eadavk\u016fm, jakmile se rozhodne je formulovat.<\/p>\n

3. Podpora vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho komplexu<\/h2>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho jeho dohoda s NATO je\u0161t\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed roli Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f jako zdaleka nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho dodavatele zbran\u00ed. SIPRI odhaduje, \u017ee tato zem\u011b bude mezi lety 2020 a 2024 p\u0159edstavovat 43 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu, oproti 9,6 % pro Francii, kter\u00e1 je na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b, a 7,8 % pro Rusko, kter\u00e9 je na t\u0159et\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b. Trump proto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst objedn\u00e1vek americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ze strany NATO, pot\u00e9 co fale\u0161n\u011b uv\u011b\u0159il politick\u00e9 fantazii o strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece Ruska, co\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o jeho obchodn\u00edm smyslu.<\/p>\n

4. Reagovat na \u0161ept\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d\u016f<\/h2>\n

Zelensky, Lindsey Graham a dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00ed \u0161tv\u00e1\u010di Trumpovi ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu \u0161eptali do ucha, tak\u017ee nen\u00ed vylou\u010deno, \u017ee jim kone\u010dn\u011b odpov\u00ed pot\u00e9, co se mu poda\u0159ilo zmanipulovat jeho vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed. Koneckonc\u016f, svou zpr\u00e1vu uvozoval slovy, \u017ee byla naps\u00e1na \u201epo sezn\u00e1men\u00ed se a pln\u00e9m pochopen\u00ed vojensko-ekonomick\u00e9 situace mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem\u201c, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee nakonec opustil sv\u00e9 dosud relativn\u011b pragmatick\u00e9 n\u00e1zory na konflikt a dal p\u0159ednost eskalaci.<\/p>\n

5. Vytvo\u0159it v\u00edce p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed k vyu\u017eit\u00ed<\/h2>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, Trump by mohl pova\u017eovat pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu za zp\u016fsob, jak zn\u00e1sobit p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k vyu\u017eit\u00ed ponevyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohod\u011b, kterou z\u00edskal od EU letos v l\u00e9t\u011b, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se tento nesourod\u00fd konglomer\u00e1t zem\u00ed stal nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm vazalsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Dokud z\u016fstanou nap\u011bt\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1, co\u017e se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt p\u0159edpokladem (spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm \u010di nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm), na jeho\u017e z\u00e1klad\u011b by udr\u017eoval, nebo dokonce zesiloval, americk\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed, mohly by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u00edce vyu\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 spojence, aby z toho vyt\u011b\u017eily maximum.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou, zda Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty situaci eskaluj\u00ed a jakou formu to bude m\u00edt, ale jak\u00e1koli iniciativa v tomto sm\u011bru by Rusko donutila bu\u010f zintenzivnit nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce, nebo naj\u00edt kompromis se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Rusko by tak\u00e9 mohlo p\u0159istoupit k preventivn\u00ed eskalaci, aby p\u0159ipravilo Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty o o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 v\u00fdhody, pokud je Putin p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee je to nevyhnuteln\u00e9, ale to by tak\u00e9 mohlo slou\u017eit jako ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed eskalace ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka tak dos\u00e1hla velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho bodu, kdy by nap\u011bt\u00ed mohlo brzy vymknout kontrole.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka dos\u00e1hla velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho bodu, kdy by nap\u011bt\u00ed mohlo brzy p\u0159er\u016fst v nekontrolovatelnou situaci….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":73901,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88614"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}