{"id":88612,"date":"2025-09-26T06:12:43","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T04:12:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88612"},"modified":"2025-09-26T06:12:43","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T04:12:43","slug":"uriel-araujo-skromne-zisky-ukrajiny-evropska-krize-a-trumpuv-prekvapivy-obrat-k-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/26\/uriel-araujo-skromne-zisky-ukrajiny-evropska-krize-a-trumpuv-prekvapivy-obrat-k-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Skromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200bzisky Ukrajiny, evropsk\u00e1 krize a Trump\u016fv p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd obrat k Rusku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Skromn\u00fd pokrok Ukrajiny na frontov\u00e9 linii a Trumpova r\u00e9torick\u00e1 zm\u011bna stav\u00ed Evropu do centra pozornosti. Zelensk\u00e9ho prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 90 miliard dolar\u016f podtrhuje k\u0159ehkou rovnov\u00e1hu mezi pokrokem na boji\u0161ti a finan\u010dn\u00ed podporou Z\u00e1padu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V kulo\u00e1rech OSN jazyk dlouhodob\u011b zast\u00ednil \u010diny. Kdy\u017e tedy prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u00a0za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc osvobodily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>360 km\u00b2 a obkl\u00ed\u010dily\u00a0<\/span><\/a>1 000<\/span><\/a>\u00a0rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f za \u00fa\u010delem mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny zajatc\u016f, je t\u0159eba si toho v\u0161imnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato \u010d\u00edsla ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0<\/span>1 548 km\u00b2<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 si Rusko n\u00e1rokovalo b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 letn\u00ed kampan\u011b \u2013 ale odhaluj\u00ed, jak Kyjev nyn\u00ed formuje sv\u016fj narativ.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee Oleksandr Syrskyj (vrchn\u00ed velitel ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny) d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>informoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o \u201eosvobozen\u00ed\u201c p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 164,5 km\u00b2 a vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 180,8 km\u00b2 b\u011bhem protiofenz\u00edvy u Dobropill\u00ed\/Pokrovska k 22. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025, co\u017e je tvrzen\u00ed, o kter\u00e9m \u0161iroce informovala ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia. Skok z t\u011bchto \u010d\u00edsel na 360 km\u00b2 nelze st\u011b\u017e\u00ed pova\u017eovat za filmov\u00fd \u2013 ale pokud je skute\u010dn\u00fd, sta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby se dalo p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Ukrajina postupuje vp\u0159ed a zat\u00edm si upev\u0148uje ur\u010dit\u00e9 postupn\u00e9 zisky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tis\u00edc obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f dosud nebylo zajato; jejich p\u0159\u00edtomnost v obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed nab\u00edz\u00ed v\u00fdhodu p\u0159i vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b zajatc\u016f, o kterou Ukrajina usilovala b\u011bhem srpnov\u00fdch a z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. To nen\u00ed zanedbateln\u00e9, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se Zelensk\u00e9ho r\u00e9torika mo\u017en\u00e1 prot\u00edn\u00e1 s m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edmi se v\u011btry v americk\u00e9 politice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po setk\u00e1n\u00ed se Zelensk\u00fdm 23. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025 americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump ve\u0159ejn\u011b ozna\u010dil Rusko za \u201e\u00a0<\/span>pap\u00edrov\u00e9ho tygra<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c a vyj\u00e1d\u0159il d\u016fv\u011bru, \u017ee Ukrajina dok\u00e1\u017ee \u201ez\u00edskat zp\u011bt\u201c ve\u0161ker\u00e9 sporn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e je\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdrazn\u00fd odklon<\/span><\/a>\u00a0od jeho p\u0159edchoz\u00edho postoje k \u00fazemn\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm. Tento r\u00e9torick\u00fd obrat, jakkoli je p\u0159\u00edmo\u010dar\u00fd a politicky nabit\u00fd, nelze snadno zavrhnout jako pouh\u00e9 divadlo, a\u010dkoli se Trump ob\u010das uk\u00e1zal b\u00fdt pom\u011brn\u011b nevyzpytateln\u00fd a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv nov\u00fd postoj trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee americk\u00e1 podpora zbran\u00ed bude plynout p\u0159es spojence NATO, kte\u0159\u00ed zbran\u011b nakupuj\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e do poloviny z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e\u00a0byly schv\u00e1leny<\/a>\u00a0transfery ve\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fd\u0161i 500 milion\u016f dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Tvrd\u00ed v\u0161ak, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e by m\u011bla n\u00e9st evrop\u0161t\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00ed poplatn\u00edci, nikoli americk\u00fd rozpo\u010det. Zd\u00e1 se tedy, \u017ee jeho zm\u011bna m\u00e1 za c\u00edl donutit Evropu n\u00e9st fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e<\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

V r\u00e1mci tohoto uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed tedy kyjevsk\u00e9 projekty\u00a0<\/span>budov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1roda<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u00e1vis\u00ed na ochot\u011b Evropy se roz\u0161i\u0159ovat. Evropa se v\u0161ak pod vlastn\u00edm tlakem chv\u011bje. Ve skute\u010dnosti, jak jsem ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, evropsk\u00fd blok \u010del\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e1 ohro\u017euje roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 unie nebo dokonce samotnou jej\u00ed existenci jako takov\u00e9. Projekce r\u016fstu pro rok 2025 se pohybuj\u00ed na pouh\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>1,1 procenta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0; ceny energi\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 (cena plynu v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch\u00a0vzrostla p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o\u00a0<\/span>20 procent ).<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Integrace v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>4 milion\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f je nav\u00edc st\u00e1le ne\u00fapln\u00e1 a sankce na dovoz rusk\u00e9ho plynu a ropy d\u00e1le zat\u011b\u017euj\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce.\u00a0Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1\u00a0<\/a><\/span>produkce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kles\u00e1\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 strategie obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu s rozpo\u010dtem\u00a0<\/span>1,5 miliardy eur\u00a0<\/span><\/a>vy\u010dlen\u011bn\u00fdm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na obdob\u00ed 2025\u20132027 sice signalizuje ur\u010dit\u00e9 ambice \u2013 ale ve skute\u010dnosti m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 skromn\u00e1 a p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. Pravdou je, \u017ee evropsk\u00e1 vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna je\u00a0ji\u017e\u00a0n\u011bjakou dobu\u00a0<\/a><\/span>rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, z\u00e1soby se vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed a nedostatek person\u00e1lu je re\u00e1ln\u00fd. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee se Brusel c\u00edt\u00ed reaktivn\u00ed, nikoli proaktivn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko mezit\u00edm pokra\u010duje v posilov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie. Jeho produkce dron\u016f se \u00fadajn\u011b zdvojn\u00e1sobila, jen v roce 2024 bylo vyrobeno 5 760\u00a0<\/span>dron\u016f Geran<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, k \u010demu\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bly i \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 komponenty. Jeho ekonomika z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b odoln\u00e1 s 3\u20134procentn\u00edm r\u016fstem v roce 2024, a\u010dkoli inflace sv\u00e1 omezen\u00ed klade. A\u0165 je to jakkoli, Moskva si udr\u017euje pr\u016fmyslovou s\u00edlu, aby snesla vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 strategie je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b dvoj\u00ed: nad\u00e1le z\u00edsk\u00e1vat podporu Z\u00e1padu a prom\u011bnit skromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200b\u00fazemn\u00ed zisky v geopolitick\u00fd vliv. Zelensk\u00e9ho prosba o n\u00e1kup zbran\u00ed v USA v hodnot\u011b\u00a0<\/span>90 miliard dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, financovan\u00fdch Evropou, nen\u00ed p\u0159ehnan\u00e1 \u2013 je to existen\u010dn\u00ed imperativ.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zelensk\u00e9ho narativ se v\u0161ak v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch nedost\u00e1v\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00e9 pozornosti. Titulky se obvykle zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na pau\u0161\u00e1ln\u00ed tvrzen\u00ed \u2013 \u201eUkrajina osvobozuje tis\u00edce kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch\u201c \u2013 nebo na dramatick\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, jako je Trump\u016fv obrat. Neust\u00e1l\u00e9mu postupu na frontov\u00e9 linii, v\u00fdm\u011bn\u00e1m v\u011bz\u0148\u016f, jedn\u00e1n\u00edm o dodavatelsk\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci a diplomacii se v\u011bnuje jen mal\u00e1 pozornost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tak\u00e9 t\u0159eba uznat citliv\u00e1 m\u00edsta a st\u00ednov\u00e9 linie ve vnit\u0159n\u00ed politice Ukrajiny. St\u00e1le se objevuj\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 milice (dokonce s\u00a0<\/span>neonacistick\u00fdmi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prvky), zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e9 ve star\u0161\u00edch dobrovolnick\u00fdch nebo nacionalistick\u00fdch hnut\u00edch, jako je Azov, st\u00e1le uplat\u0148uj\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd vliv v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed. A\u010dkoli mnoho z t\u011bchto jednotek bylo po roce 2014 integrov\u00e1no do form\u00e1ln\u00edch struktur a v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech byly jejich kontingenty zahrani\u010dn\u00edch bojovn\u00edk\u016f omezen\u00e9, jejich symbolick\u00e1 a politick\u00e1 role z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b viditeln\u00e1, jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Tyto s\u00edly slou\u017e\u00ed jako p\u0159ipom\u00ednka toho, \u017ee kyjevsk\u00fd narativ se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s probl\u00e9mem vyv\u00e1\u017eit sv\u016fj image demokracie a pr\u00e1v s praktick\u00fdm \u201epragmatismem\u201c a o\u0161klivou histori\u00ed v oblasti lidsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm se oz\u00fdvaj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed hlasy, kter\u00e9 se ptaj\u00ed, zda Zelensk\u00e9ho vlastn\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed kruh nebo tajn\u00e9 operace neskr\u00fdvaj\u00ed ambice nad r\u00e1mec transparentnosti. Zpr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Seymoura Hershe\u00a0nazna\u010duj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e \u201e\u00a0<\/span>koncov\u00e9 hry<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, kter\u00e9 Zelensk\u00e9ho st\u00e1le pron\u00e1sleduj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skromn\u00e9 \u200b\u200bzisky, obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, Trumpova r\u00e9torick\u00e1 zm\u011bna a rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e Evropy, to v\u0161e jako by ukazovalo na k\u0159i\u017eovatku. Ukrajinsk\u00fd re\u017eim nem\u016f\u017ee ani odd\u011blit sv\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed od podpory Z\u00e1padu, ani se spol\u00e9hat pouze na velkolep\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Jak\u00e9koli zisky mus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u017edy vojensky udr\u017eiteln\u00e9, diplomaticky podpo\u0159en\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u011b garantovan\u00e9. Z\u00e1pad sice nemus\u00ed m\u00edt kapacitu podpo\u0159it dokonal\u00fd m\u00edr (jak se Trump \u010dasto neohraban\u011b pokusil), ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee si nyn\u00ed mysl\u00ed, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee podpo\u0159it dostate\u010dnou v\u00e1lku, aby se kalkul n\u00e1klad\u016f a v\u00fdnos\u016f vych\u00fdlil ve prosp\u011bch Kyjeva.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina si jist\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee doufat, \u017ee p\u0159es noc silou \u201ez\u00edsk\u00e1 zp\u011bt\u201c ve\u0161ker\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 se hl\u00e1s\u00ed \u2013 mimochodem, velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z n\u011bj je sporn\u00e1 u\u017e od\u00a0<\/span>ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Donbasu v roce 2014<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0referenda\u00a0<\/a><\/span>na Krymu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(pokud jde o\u00a0referenda<\/a>\u00a0, Z\u00e1pad dok\u00e1\u017ee b\u00fdt dost pokryteck\u00fd: sta\u010d\u00ed vzpomenout na jeho uzn\u00e1n\u00ed jednostrann\u00e9ho vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti Kosova v roce 2008).<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova nov\u00e1 linie nicm\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b poskytuje Zelensk\u00e9mu r\u00e9torick\u00e9 kryt\u00ed a kol\u00edsav\u00e9 odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed Evropy dod\u00e1v\u00e1 snah\u00e1m Kyjeva nal\u00e9havost. Lze tedy o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd v\u016fdce bude i nad\u00e1le lh\u00e1t (nebo se uchylovat k hyperbole), aby z\u00edskal pen\u00edze EU. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je tvrdou realitou m\u00edrn\u00fd pokrok, prom\u011bn\u011bn\u00e1 r\u00e9torika nespolehliv\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho prezidenta a Evropa v krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Skromn\u00fd pokrok Ukrajiny na frontov\u00e9 linii a Trumpova r\u00e9torick\u00e1 zm\u011bna stav\u00ed Evropu do centra pozornosti….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88613,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,452,26,1000],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88612"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88612"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88612\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88613"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}