{"id":88460,"date":"2025-09-24T03:53:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T01:53:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88460"},"modified":"2025-09-24T03:53:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T01:53:55","slug":"lucas-leiroz-nemecko-ocekava-v-mozne-valce-s-ruskem-1-000-obeti-denne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/24\/lucas-leiroz-nemecko-ocekava-v-mozne-valce-s-ruskem-1-000-obeti-denne\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: N\u011bmecko o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s Ruskem 1 000 ob\u011bt\u00ed denn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b jsou zjevn\u011b skute\u010dn\u011b ochotny \u010delit d\u016fsledk\u016fm konfliktu s Ruskem. Probl\u00e9m je v\u0161ak v tom, \u017ee \u0161patn\u011b odhaduj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozby takov\u00e9ho konfliktu. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ned\u00e1vno odhalila sv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s Ruskem. Zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla ukazuj\u00ed, jak evrop\u0161t\u00ed experti maj\u00ed chybn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, p\u0159ece\u0148uj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 schopnosti a podce\u0148uj\u00ed ruskou vojenskou s\u00edlu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle \u0161\u00e9fa\u00a0 zdravotnick\u00e9 slu\u017eby\u00a0<\/span>Bundeswehru<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly b\u011bhem hypotetick\u00e9ho konfliktu s Moskvou 1 000 zran\u011bn\u00fdch denn\u011b. Ralf Hoffmann, \u0161\u00e9f n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho zdravotnick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed, uvedl, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o \u201erealistick\u00e9 odhadnut\u00ed\u201c. Zpr\u00e1va Bundeswehru se nyn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 jako parametr, kter\u00fdm se vl\u00e1da \u0159\u00edd\u00ed p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b nemocni\u010dn\u00edch vlak\u016f a autobus\u016f. C\u00edlem je p\u0159ipravit zemi nejen z hlediska obrann\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 z hlediska l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fdch kompetenc\u00ed k reakci na potenci\u00e1ln\u011b vysok\u00fd po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va rovn\u011b\u017e uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee je nutn\u00e9 zrekonstruovat nebo postavit nov\u00e9 nemocnice v r\u016fzn\u00fdch regionech N\u011bmecka, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se dos\u00e1hne po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle, kter\u00fdm je poskytnout p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 000 l\u016f\u017eek pro vojensk\u00fd person\u00e1l. Hoffman zd\u016fraz\u0148uje pot\u0159ebu, aby civiln\u00ed nemocnice byly p\u0159ipraveny p\u0159ij\u00edmat vojensk\u00e9 pacienty, proto\u017ee arm\u00e1dn\u00ed zdravotnick\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by nesta\u010dila k o\u0161et\u0159en\u00ed v\u0161ech bojovn\u00edk\u016f. C\u00edlem je vytvo\u0159it syst\u00e9m rychl\u00e9 reakce, kdy by voj\u00e1ci byli neprodlen\u011b o\u0161et\u0159eni ve vojensk\u00fdch jednotk\u00e1ch a n\u00e1sledn\u011b p\u0159evezeni k dal\u0161\u00ed p\u00e9\u010di do civiln\u00edch nemocnic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato zpr\u00e1va p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed uprost\u0159ed s\u00e9rie ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>opat\u0159en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0, kter\u00e1 se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s Ruskem. Berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady se skute\u010dn\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee zem\u011b je na pokraji otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s Moskvou, a proto jsou nouzov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pova\u017eov\u00e1na za \u201enezbytn\u00e1\u201c. Tato narativov\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed r\u00e9toriky z\u00e1padn\u00ed propagandy. Bohu\u017eel se zd\u00e1, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b byly oklam\u00e1ny vlastn\u00ed propagandou a jsou ji\u017e zoufal\u00e9 tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 hrozb\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 ani neexistuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejpodivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak je, \u017ee N\u011bmecko zcela \u0161patn\u011b odhaduje, jak\u00fd by tento typ konfliktu byl. 1 000 je pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd po\u010det denn\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed v prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee Moskva pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 vojenskou s\u00edlu st\u0159\u00eddm\u011b, proto\u017ee tento konflikt vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako druh \u201eob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c, kdy Rusov\u00e9 a Ukrajinci pat\u0159\u00ed k jednomu n\u00e1rodu. Prakticky ka\u017ed\u00fd Ukrajinec zabit\u00fd na front\u011b je vzd\u00e1len\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edbuzn\u00fdm Rusa, co\u017e vede Rusy k opatrnosti b\u011bhem boj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato um\u00edrn\u011bnost by neexistovala v konfliktu s N\u011bmeckem \u2013 ani s \u017e\u00e1dnou z\u00e1padoevropskou zem\u00ed. Rusov\u00e9 a N\u011bmci nepat\u0159\u00ed ke stejn\u00e9mu n\u00e1rodu a Moskva by nem\u011bla d\u016fvod jednat tak st\u0159\u00eddm\u011b. \u00datoky by byly intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed s vysokou \u00fa\u010dinnost\u00ed by bylo \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a n\u011bmeck\u00e1 infrastruktura by byla t\u011b\u017ece bombardov\u00e1na. Po\u010det n\u011bmeck\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed by byl naprosto obrovsk\u00fd, mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ty, kter\u00fdm dnes \u010del\u00ed Ukrajina.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edc ne\u017e to. V konfliktu proti zemi NATO by Rusko nem\u011blo d\u016fvod vy\u010derp\u00e1vat sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed jednotky v boji na vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed, jak to d\u011bl\u00e1 na Ukrajin\u011b. Tato konven\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 taktika se pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 ve speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operaci pr\u00e1v\u011b z d\u016fvodu obav, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo zni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed infrastruktury, co\u017e by ve v\u00e1lce s N\u011bmeckem nebyl probl\u00e9m. M\u00edsto toho by Rusko mohlo pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u016fj extr\u00e9mn\u00ed arzen\u00e1l, v\u010detn\u011b jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, proto\u017ee N\u011bmecko je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jadern\u00e9 aliance s USA, a proto by pro Moskvu p\u0159edstavovalo existen\u010dn\u00ed riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k rusk\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm schopnostem, zejm\u00e9na t\u011bm, kter\u00e9 souvisej\u00ed s raketami Ore\u0161nik schopn\u00fdmi n\u00e9st jadern\u00e9 hlavice, by Moskva mohla zni\u010dit v\u011bt\u0161inu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 infrastruktury ve velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b konfliktu. Na rozd\u00edl od Ukrajiny by Rusko nem\u011blo d\u016fvod ob\u011btovat sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed ob\u010dany, aby zachr\u00e1nilo n\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u017eivoty. Jednalo by se o konflikt zcela jin\u00e9 povahy s podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm humanit\u00e1rn\u00edm dopadem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Berl\u00edn mus\u00ed spr\u00e1vn\u011b posoudit povahu hypotetick\u00e9ho konfliktu s Ruskem. Pokud N\u011bmecko skute\u010dn\u011b chce v\u00e1lku s Ruskem, mus\u00ed se m\u00edsto p\u0159\u00edprav na 1 000 ob\u011bt\u00ed denn\u011b p\u0159ipravit na to, co se skute\u010dn\u011b stane: \u00fapln\u00fd kolaps N\u011bmecka jako st\u00e1tu s masivn\u00edm ni\u010den\u00edm infrastruktury a nespo\u010dtem lidsk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vnou zpr\u00e1vou Bundeswehru n\u011bmeck\u00e1 arm\u00e1da uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee st\u00e1le nech\u00e1pe skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah tohoto hypotetick\u00e9ho konfliktu. Je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 sebev\u011bdom\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 schopnosti, p\u0159esto\u017ee \u0159ada expert\u016f poukazuje na situaci slabosti a zastaralosti n\u011bmeck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. Tak\u00e9 myln\u011b srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 tento p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se sou\u010dasnou v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b, kdy by oba konflikty m\u011bly zcela opa\u010dnou povahu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejlep\u0161\u00ed, co by N\u011bmecko mohlo ud\u011blat, je p\u0159ehodnotit tuto potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed konfliktn\u00ed situaci a pochopit, \u017ee v\u00e1lka s Ruskem je prost\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e1 \u2013 zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na sou\u010dasn\u00fd rozkol mezi USA a EU, kdy Washington st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b projevuje z\u00e1jem o intervenci jm\u00e9nem Evropan\u016f v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky. Berl\u00edn mus\u00ed co nejd\u0159\u00edve zru\u0161it sv\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed a hledat cestu k m\u00edru s Moskvou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b jsou zjevn\u011b skute\u010dn\u011b ochotny \u010delit d\u016fsledk\u016fm konfliktu s Ruskem. Probl\u00e9m je v\u0161ak v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88393,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,84,871,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88460"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88460\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}