{"id":88411,"date":"2025-09-24T00:16:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T22:16:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88411"},"modified":"2025-09-23T13:36:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T11:36:10","slug":"vedci-vyvraceji-klimaticky-mytus-velikost-hurikanu-nezavisi-na-globalnim-oteplovani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/24\/vedci-vyvraceji-klimaticky-mytus-velikost-hurikanu-nezavisi-na-globalnim-oteplovani\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011bdci vyvracej\u00ed klimatick\u00fd m\u00fdtus: Velikost hurik\u00e1nu nez\u00e1vis\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ve\u0159ejnost je ji\u017e l\u00e9ta bombardov\u00e1na tvrzen\u00edmi, \u017ee hurik\u00e1ny se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi a ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi kv\u016fli \u00fadajn\u011b \u010dlov\u011bkem zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm klimatick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 nov\u00e1 sez\u00f3na tropick\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed jako ide\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro apokalyptick\u00e9 titulky. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 studie Purdueovy univerzity v\u0161ak tento alarmismus podkop\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se diskutuje o hurik\u00e1nech v Mexick\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, ve\u0159ejnost se obvykle zam\u011b\u0159uje na klasifikaci, kter\u00e1 se pohybuje od jedn\u00e9 do p\u011bti. Tyto klasifikace jsou zalo\u017eeny na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed rychlosti v\u011btru a maj\u00ed poskytnout jednoduchou stupnici celkov\u00e9ho nebezpe\u010d\u00ed. To v\u0161ak zachycuje pouze \u010d\u00e1st pravdy. Bou\u0159e se stejnou rychlost\u00ed v\u011btru se m\u016f\u017ee vyskytnout bu\u010f jako relativn\u011b kompaktn\u00ed v\u00edr, nebo jako gigantick\u00fd syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd pak pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 cel\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. V praxi je to pr\u00e1v\u011b tato velikost, kter\u00e1 \u010dasto ur\u010duje rozsah a n\u00e1klady na ni\u010den\u00ed: rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 bou\u0159kov\u00e9 vlny, p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed siln\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b a \u0161irok\u00fd koridor ni\u010div\u00fdch v\u011btr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 studie Purdueovy univerzity s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Tropick\u00e9 cykl\u00f3ny se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed rychleji p\u0159i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed relativn\u00ed teplot\u011b mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, publikovan\u00e1 v \u010dasopise PNAS, nyn\u00ed poskytuje prvn\u00ed konzistentn\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, pro\u010d n\u011bkter\u00e9 hurik\u00e1ny nar\u016fstaj\u00ed do obrovsk\u00fdch obr\u016f, zat\u00edmco jin\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b mal\u00e9. V\u011bdci zkoumali historick\u00e1 data a simulace a zjistili, \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 role nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstu teploty, ale v m\u00edstn\u00edch oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u201ehork\u00fdch m\u00edstech\u201c. Tam, kde je voda v\u00fdrazn\u011b teplej\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v okoln\u00edch oblastech, bou\u0159e roste mnohem rychleji. Hurik\u00e1ny se nad t\u011bmito tepeln\u00fdmi ostrovy masivn\u011b zv\u011bt\u0161uj\u00ed v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m obdob\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie tak vyvrac\u00ed jedno z b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed klimaticky \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdch apokalyptik\u016f: \u017ee rostouc\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty by automaticky vedly ke st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm bou\u0159\u00edm. V\u00fdsledky nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee tempo r\u016fstu bou\u0159\u00ed by se i v teplej\u0161\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b sotva zm\u011bnilo. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed teplota mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny, nikoli glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br. To je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd ukazatel toho, \u017ee narativ o \u00fadajn\u011b \u201est\u00e1le se zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch bou\u0159\u00edch v d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u201c m\u00e1 jen mal\u00fd v\u011bdeck\u00fd z\u00e1klad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto v\u00fdsledk\u016f v\u00fdzkumu lze v budoucnu mnohem p\u0159esn\u011bji p\u0159edpov\u00eddat velikost bou\u0159\u00ed, pokud meteorologick\u00e9 slu\u017eby v\u00edce zohledn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed teplotn\u00ed vzorce oce\u00e1n\u016f. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00ed rizika pro obyvatelstvo a infrastrukturu. P\u0159\u00edklad hurik\u00e1nu Helene z roku 2024 to ilustruje. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed se rozrostl v jednu z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch bou\u0159\u00ed, jak\u00e9 kdy byly zaznamen\u00e1ny \u2013 ne proto, \u017ee by se Zem\u011b celkov\u011b oteplila, ale proto, \u017ee se pohyboval nad obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b teplou oblast\u00ed oce\u00e1nu. V\u00fdsledkem byla \u00farove\u0148 \u0161kod, kterou je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 zachytit pouze pomoc\u00ed kategori\u00ed v\u011btru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i studie zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee modern\u00ed satelitn\u00ed m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed a v\u00fdkonn\u00e1 datov\u00e1 centra umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b zachytit tyto lok\u00e1ln\u00ed rozd\u00edly. To umo\u017en\u00ed nejen meteorologick\u00fdm slu\u017eb\u00e1m, ale i agentur\u00e1m pro zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed katastrof vytv\u00e1\u0159et spolehliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed velikosti bou\u0159\u00ed v budoucnu. Znovu to dokazuje, \u017ee v\u011bda nach\u00e1z\u00ed odpov\u011bdi v detailech, nikoli v zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch narativech \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdch politiky a m\u00e9dii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo sly\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd hurik\u00e1n je d\u016fkazem \u201epostupuj\u00edc\u00ed zm\u011bny klimatu\u201c, by m\u011bl m\u00edt tato zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na pam\u011bti. Bou\u0159e jsou ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed tropick\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Jejich chov\u00e1n\u00ed je slo\u017eit\u00e9 a ur\u010dov\u00e1no region\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamikou. Pr\u00e1v\u011b toto pozn\u00e1n\u00ed vede zp\u011bt k st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e9mu pohledu: Ne ka\u017ed\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd jev lze redukovat na jednoduch\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trend. P\u0159\u00edroda je slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e dok\u00e1\u017eou zachytit jak\u00e9koli zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 modely.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Ve\u0159ejnost je ji\u017e l\u00e9ta bombardov\u00e1na tvrzen\u00edmi, \u017ee hurik\u00e1ny se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi a ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi kv\u016fli \u00fadajn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3438,873,1100],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88411"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88411\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}