{"id":8824,"date":"2022-03-04T06:01:29","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T05:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=8824"},"modified":"2022-03-04T06:01:29","modified_gmt":"2022-03-04T05:01:29","slug":"bill-roggio-putin-neni-blazen-a-ruska-invaze-neselhala","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/03\/04\/bill-roggio-putin-neni-blazen-a-ruska-invaze-neselhala\/","title":{"rendered":"Bill Roggio: Putin NEN\u00cd bl\u00e1zen a rusk\u00e1 invaze NEselhala"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00a0Putin NEN\u00cd bl\u00e1zen a rusk\u00e1 invaze NEZklamala.\u00a0Iluze Z\u00e1padu o t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce \u2013 a jeho neschopnost porozum\u011bt nep\u0159\u00edteli \u2013 mu zabr\u00e1n\u00ed zachr\u00e1nit Ukrajinu, p\u00ed\u0161e vojensk\u00fd analytik BILL ROGGIO.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bill Roggio je vedouc\u00edm pracovn\u00edkem Nadace pro obranu demokraci\u00ed a redaktorem Long War Journal of the FDD.\u00a0Od roku 1991 do roku 1997 slou\u017eil Roggio jako spoja\u0159 a p\u011b\u0161\u00e1k v americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b a New Jersey National Guard.<\/span><\/p>\n

V bitv\u011b o z\u00e1padn\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b vl\u00e1dne zbo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sympatie k p\u0159esile a p\u0159esile obr\u00e1nc\u016f Kyjeva vedly k p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch proti\u00fatok\u016f, nepochopen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 strategie a dokonce k nepodlo\u017een\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm amat\u00e9rsk\u00fdch psychoanalytik\u016f, \u017ee Putin ztratil rozum.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e1 anal\u00fdza ukazuje, \u017ee Rusko sice usilovalo o vy\u0159azovac\u00ed \u00fader, ale v\u017edy m\u011blo dob\u0159e promy\u0161len\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, pokud by se jeho prvn\u00ed kroky uk\u00e1zaly jako nedostate\u010dn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve Putina podcenil a tyto chyby \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b vedly k t\u00e9to trag\u00e9dii na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Te\u010f, kdy\u017e je v\u00e1lka, mus\u00edme m\u00edt jasn\u00e9 o\u010di.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale i experti v Pentagonu nechali sympatie zatemnit sv\u016fj \u00fasudek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pouh\u00e9 dva dny pot\u00e9, co Rusko napadlo Ukrajinu, p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 americk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany uvedli, \u017ee dobyt\u00ed Kyjeva v prvn\u00edch dnech v\u00e1lky p\u0159edstavovalo velkou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ministerstvo obrany nazna\u010dilo, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ofenziva byla zna\u010dn\u011b opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e1, nebo dokonce selhala, proto\u017ee hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto nepadlo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale veden\u00ed USA se m\u011blo nau\u010dit dr\u017eet na uzd\u011b sv\u00e9 nad\u011bje po katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm sta\u017een\u00ed z Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dt\u00ed a z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 op\u011bt padaj\u00ed do pasti nepochopen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele a jeho c\u00edl\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin se \u00fadajn\u011b domn\u00edval, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se zhrout\u00ed, jakmile rusk\u00e9 jednotky p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed hranici a postoup\u00ed do Kyjeva, a \u017ee operace se nezda\u0159ila, proto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je st\u00e1le v \u00fa\u0159adu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin jist\u011b doufal v rychl\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, ale zjevn\u011b nespol\u00e9hal na svou \u00favodn\u00ed salvu jako na jedin\u00fd pl\u00e1n \u00fasp\u011bchu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da byla sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159ipravena ovl\u00e1dnout zemi silou, pokud by rychl\u00fd dekapita\u010dn\u00ed \u00fader selhal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento typ pl\u00e1nu by m\u011bl b\u00fdt zn\u00e1m\u00fd Ameri\u010dan\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed si pamatuj\u00ed invazi do Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003.<\/span><\/p>\n

V prvn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch v\u00e1lky zah\u00e1jilo americk\u00e9 letectvo kampa\u0148 \u201eShock and Awe\u201c, jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo zab\u00edt Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna a dal\u0161\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 v\u016fdce a svrhnout vl\u00e1du.\u00a0Sadd\u00e1m p\u0159e\u017eil, ale americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da byla p\u0159ipravena zah\u00e1jit pozemn\u00ed \u00fatok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pohled na ruskou vojenskou ofenz\u00edvu ukazuje, \u017ee existoval pl\u00e1n rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 invaze, kterou Rusko nyn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konven\u010dn\u00ed mechanizovan\u00e9 v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed je \u010dasov\u011b i zdrojov\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 a operaci takov\u00e9ho rozsahu nelze d\u00e1t dohromady za p\u00e1r dn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 na \u010dty\u0159ech r\u016fzn\u00fdch front\u00e1ch.\u00a0Na p\u00e1t\u00e9 front\u011b, na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b, kterou Putin minul\u00fd t\u00fdden vyhl\u00e1sil za nez\u00e1vislou, rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly svazuj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 jinde.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina rusk\u00fdch sil postupuje na jih z B\u011bloruska sm\u011brem na Kyjev.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 p\u0159edsunut\u00e9 s\u00edly, v\u010detn\u011b v\u00fdsadkov\u00fdch, mobiln\u00edch a pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch jednotek, byly od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky rozm\u00edst\u011bny s ukrajinsk\u00fdmi jednotkami mimo Kyjev.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohutn\u00e1 kolona rusk\u00fdch jednotek, odhadovan\u00e1 na d\u00e9lku p\u0159es 40 mil, je pouh\u00fdch 20 mil severn\u011b od Kyjeva a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u00ed, aby obkl\u00ed\u010dila hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly dok\u00e1\u017eou dob\u00fdt Kyjev a tla\u010dit na jih, aby se spojily se silami na krymsk\u00e9 front\u011b a rozd\u011blily tak Ukrajinu na dv\u011b \u010d\u00e1sti, byla by to pro Zelensk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1du velk\u00e1 r\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e hrstka ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f je v\u0161ak to, \u017ee za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e t\u00fdden rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly postoupily 70 mil na sporn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a jsou na okraji hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta.<\/span><\/p>\n

To nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mka neorganizovan\u00e9, \u0161patn\u011b slo\u017een\u00e9 a ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tla\u010den\u00ed B\u011bloruska na jih sm\u011brem ke Kyjevu je podporov\u00e1no dal\u0161\u00ed ruskou kolonou vypu\u0161t\u011bnou z v\u00fdchodu pobl\u00ed\u017e Kurska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se tato kolona dok\u00e1\u017ee spojit s rusk\u00fdmi silami pobl\u00ed\u017e Kyjeva, obkl\u00ed\u010d\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b provinci\u00ed \u010cernihiv a Sumy, p\u0159iprav\u00ed ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du o tolik pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd materi\u00e1l a od\u0159\u00edzne vl\u00e1du dvou severn\u00edch provinci\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly zah\u00e1jily rozs\u00e1hlou ofenz\u00edvu zam\u011b\u0159enou na Charkov, druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u011bsto Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 je nyn\u00ed v oble\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na jihu rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly podporovan\u00e9 oboj\u017eiveln\u00fdmi \u00fatoky z Azovsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e napadly Ukrajinu z Krymu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na t\u00e9to front\u011b se rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly rozv\u011btvily pod\u00e9l dvou hlavn\u00edch os, jedn\u00e9 na severoz\u00e1pad pod\u00e9l \u0159eky Pivdennyi Buh a dal\u0161\u00ed na severov\u00fdchod pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a do vnitrozem\u00ed sm\u011brem k oblasti Donbas, kterou Rusko vyhl\u00e1silo za nez\u00e1vislou t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by se rusk\u00e9 kolony z kter\u00e9koli ji\u017en\u00ed fronty mohly spojit se silami d\u00e1le na sever, od\u0159\u00edzly by mnoho ukrajinsk\u00fdch jednotek od posil \u2013 jedna ze dvou kolon ji\u017e postoupila asi 160 mil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ru\u0161t\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 se \u010dasto rozhodli obch\u00e1zet m\u011bsta a obce, kter\u00e9 siln\u011b vzdoruj\u00ed, a izolovat je pro pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly \u00fadajn\u011b zes\u00edlily \u00fatoky na civilisty, zejm\u00e9na v Charkov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasnosti jsou tam d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky omezen\u00e9, snad proto, aby varovaly ob\u010dany p\u0159ed t\u00edm, co m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ij\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Putin m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu p\u0159evz\u00edt Ukrajinu bez \u00fajmy, ale nebude v\u00e1hat vystup\u0148ovat brutalitu, kdy\u017e to bude pot\u0159eba.<\/span><\/p>\n

Systematick\u00fd charakter rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku je v rozporu se spekulacemi, \u017ee Putin ztratil kontrolu nad svou mysl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nikdo to nev\u00ed jist\u011b, ale Putinovy \u200b\u200b\u010diny se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt akcemi chladn\u00e9ho a vypo\u010d\u00edtav\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho rozhodnut\u00ed napadnout Ukrajinu, kter\u00e9 bylo odm\u00edtnuto jako forma \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, je z\u00e1minkou k ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed Putinov\u00fdch pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch motiv\u016f a budouc\u00edch akc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategicky, Putin\u016fv postup na Ukrajinu za\u010dal p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e deseti lety, kdy napadl Gruzii a balkanizoval ji t\u00edm, \u017ee uznal kremelsk\u00e9 loutkov\u00e9 re\u017eimy v regionech Abch\u00e1zie a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2014 Putin obsadil a anektoval strategickou ukrajinskou oblast Krym, kter\u00e1 slou\u017eila jako startovac\u00ed rampa pro sou\u010dasnou invazi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin sotva zaplatil cenu za ob\u011b akce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Evropa uvalily omezen\u00e9 sankce, ale nad\u00e1le s n\u00edm vyjedn\u00e1valy o jadern\u00e9 dohod\u011b s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a dal\u0161\u00edch d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes Putin spo\u010d\u00edtal, \u017ee p\u0159evzet\u00ed Ukrajiny n\u00e1sil\u00edm je v jeho z\u00e1jmu i v z\u00e1jmu Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nepochybn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad uval\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 sankce, kter\u00fdmi p\u0159edt\u00edm hrozili ameri\u010dt\u00ed a evrop\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin mo\u017en\u00e1 \u0161patn\u011b odhadl ukrajinsk\u00fd odpor a intenzitu z\u00e1padn\u00ed opozice, ale to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee je bl\u00e1zen nebo nezv\u00e1\u017eil mo\u017enosti a rozhodl se k invazi i tak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uvid\u00edme, zda Putin\u016fv pl\u00e1n usp\u011bje nebo sel\u017ee, ale jasn\u00e9 je, \u017ee existoval pl\u00e1n n\u00e1siln\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu a tento pl\u00e1n byl realizov\u00e1n od prvn\u00edho dne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky state\u010dn\u011b bojuj\u00ed v t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch a s velk\u00fdmi obt\u00ed\u017eemi.\u00a0Rusko m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inu, ne-li v\u0161echny, v\u00fdhod.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee a za\u00fato\u010dila na Ukrajinu ze t\u0159\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch sm\u011br\u016f.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00e1 jasnou p\u0159evahu, pokud jde o po\u010dty voj\u00e1k\u016f, vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil a obrn\u011bn\u00e9 techniky.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee \u010derpat obrovsk\u00e9 zdroje.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco Ukrajina se t\u011b\u0161\u00ed podpo\u0159e velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 poskytuje zbran\u011b, Ukrajina bojuje sama.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00fd \u00fatok prob\u00edh\u00e1 \u0161patn\u011b, se m\u016f\u017eeme c\u00edtit dob\u0159e, ale je to v rozporu s fakty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nem\u016f\u017eeme Ukrajin\u011b pomoci, pokud nebudeme k jej\u00ed situaci up\u0159\u00edmn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0Putin NEN\u00cd bl\u00e1zen a rusk\u00e1 invaze NEZklamala.\u00a0Iluze Z\u00e1padu o t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce \u2013 a jeho neschopnost…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,102,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8824"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8824\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}