{"id":88028,"date":"2025-09-18T00:27:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T22:27:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=88028"},"modified":"2025-09-17T12:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T10:46:54","slug":"vasilij-kasin-konflikt-na-ukrajine-odhalil-nedostatecnost-starych-vojenskych-a-politickych-konceptu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/18\/vasilij-kasin-konflikt-na-ukrajine-odhalil-nedostatecnost-starych-vojenskych-a-politickych-konceptu\/","title":{"rendered":"Vasilij Ka\u0161in: Konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b odhalil nedostate\u010dnost star\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch a politick\u00fdch koncept\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Na za\u010d\u00e1tku speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace m\u011blo Rusko v \u00famyslu rychle a relativn\u011b bezkrvav\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161it \u201eukrajinsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m\u201c vytvo\u0159en\u00edm nov\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu v Evrop\u011b, jeho\u017e \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem by byla neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed a demilitarizovan\u00e1 Ukrajina. Tyto pl\u00e1ny nezahrnovaly \u00fazemn\u00ed akvizice. Z\u00e1pad zase po\u010d\u00edtal s rychlou por\u00e1\u017ekou Ruska (a\u017e po zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v\u010detn\u011b) prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u0161okov\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, medi\u00e1ln\u00ed kampan\u011b a po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f. Rusko m\u011blo utrp\u011bt strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku a na dlouhou dobu ztratit roli v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho hr\u00e1\u010de ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 politice.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Moskva a Z\u00e1pad o\u010dek\u00e1valy, \u017ee po\u017eadovan\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f dos\u00e1hnou b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f. M\u00edsto toho v\u0161ak skon\u010dily krvavou, dlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lkou, kde jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f se stala okupace nebo udr\u017een\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem pouh\u00fdch n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 operace znehodnotila mnohalet\u00e9 strategie znesv\u00e1\u0159en\u00fdch stran a tak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 koncepty, kter\u00e9 byly od konce 80. let pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za axiomy. Vojensk\u00e1 v\u011bda se uk\u00e1zala jako zcela nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 pro \u00farove\u0148 rozvoje vojensk\u00e9 techniky. Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee velmoci jsou obecn\u011b slep\u00e9 ke sv\u011btu, ve kter\u00e9m \u017eij\u00ed. Bezmocnost jejich strategick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed ve vojensk\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e je jen malou \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho probl\u00e9mu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k rostouc\u00ed roli jadern\u00e9ho faktoru ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 politice, nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00e9\u0159e \u201ejadern\u00e9 multipolarity\u201c a trendu \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b lze vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed obraz ozna\u010dit za d\u011bsiv\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010dastn\u00edci nov\u00e9ho kola sout\u011b\u017ee velmoc\u00ed postr\u00e1daj\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 m\u011b\u0159\u00edtka pro m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed s\u00edly st\u00e1t\u016f na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b. Rusko s m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 4 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP ve spojenectv\u00ed s B\u011bloruskem a Severn\u00ed Koreou, kter\u00e9 se na za\u010d\u00e1tku speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace dopustilo \u0159ady z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch chyb, dok\u00e1zalo zvr\u00e1tit pr\u016fb\u011bh nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch. Koalice v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 rozvinut\u00fdch zem\u00ed podporuj\u00edc\u00edch Kyjev a ovl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP se uk\u00e1zala jako bezmocn\u00e1 tomu zabr\u00e1nit. V d\u016fsledku toho se vojensk\u00e1 situace Ukrajiny neust\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Neexistuj\u00ed absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 krit\u00e9ria p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00e1 modern\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m pro hodnocen\u00ed politick\u00e9 stability ciz\u00edho st\u00e1tu, schopnosti jeho spole\u010dnosti odolat ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m a obecn\u011b pro anal\u00fdzu dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiky a syst\u00e9mu rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed. Neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 metody pro p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch vojensk\u00e9ho \u0161oku. P\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se schopnosti Ruska vyrovnat se se sankcemi se uk\u00e1zaly jako zcela nep\u0159esn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dnes u\u017e nejde o dva protich\u016fdn\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 p\u00f3ly a dva syst\u00e9my. Modern\u00ed sv\u011bt je mnohem slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. M\u00e1 t\u0159i supervelmoci, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, \u010c\u00ednu a Rusko, a \u0159adu vlivn\u00fdch akt\u00e9r\u016f s nez\u00e1vislou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politikou, n\u00e1roky na roli v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b v\u011bc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch a v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm mocensk\u00fdm a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u0161ak nejsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jejich alian\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b Indie, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, Turecko, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Braz\u00edlie. Tento seznam by se v budoucnu mohl zna\u010dn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Evropa v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed n\u011bkolikalet\u00e1 obdob\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00edch politick\u00fdch turbulenc\u00ed. Vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed elity byly obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zasa\u017eeny finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed z let 2008-2010. Situaci pot\u00e9 zhor\u0161ila migra\u010dn\u00ed krize v polovin\u011b roku 2010 a covid. V posledn\u00edch patn\u00e1cti letech tradi\u010dn\u00ed establishment neust\u00e1le ztr\u00e1c\u00ed p\u016fdu pod nohama, ve\u0159ejn\u00fd \u017eivot se radikalizuje a d\u016fv\u011bra ve volby kles\u00e1. Vliv politik\u016f proti establishmentu vzrostl a\u017e do bodu, kdy se jeden z nich dostal k moci v z\u00e1padn\u00ed mocnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko v kontextu speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace proch\u00e1z\u00ed vlastn\u00ed slo\u017eitou restrukturalizac\u00ed sv\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho a ekonomick\u00e9ho modelu. A dokonce i \u010c\u00edna \u010del\u00ed poklesu tempa r\u016fstu, nov\u00fdm vln\u00e1m \u010distek st\u00e1tn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu a hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch motor\u016f ekonomick\u00e9ho rozvoje.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Krizov\u00e9 jevy v politice a ekonomice lze pozorovat v\u0161ude. Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 dom\u00e1c\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m se mnoho zem\u00ed vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 na cestu ideologizace sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se sv\u00fdmi pokusy o ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed voleb v Evropsk\u00e9 unii staly nositelem tohoto trendu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 si Rusko nad\u00e1le z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 sympatie evropsk\u00e9 pravice. Konflikt s Ruskem je nakonec zneu\u017eit jako z\u00e1minka k jejich n\u00e1siln\u00e9mu \u00fatlaku, kter\u00fd jde a\u017e do anulov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f voleb (Rumunsko).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

S takovou vnitropolitickou polarizac\u00ed bude chu\u0165 k riziku v konfliktech ukrajinsk\u00e9ho typu nesm\u00edrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na konci studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b hroz\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice p\u00e1dem moci, zat\u00edmco opozice v\u016f\u010di vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu nep\u0159\u00edteli naopak slou\u017e\u00ed jako n\u00e1stroj pro \u201esjednocen\u00ed kolem vlajky\u201c a prost\u0159edek k do\u010dasn\u00e9mu zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00edch rozpor\u016f. V\u00fdmluvn\u00e9 je, \u017ee nejbojovn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm l\u00eddrem v EU je francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron s 24% m\u00edrou schv\u00e1len\u00ed, v\u00e1\u017enou kriz\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed a dlouhodobou ekonomickou stagnac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko a Evropa prom\u00edtly ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt do sv\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiky a ob\u00e1valy se katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed destabilizace v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tot\u00e1ln\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eky. To se na obou stran\u00e1ch neskr\u00fdvalo, ba dokonce to zd\u016fraz\u0148ovalo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, sama projevuj\u00edc\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ochotu riskovat, z\u00e1rove\u0148 o\u010dek\u00e1vala od druh\u00e9 strany zdr\u017eenlivost v duchu obdob\u00ed uvoln\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed neospravedlnila, n\u00e1sledovaly argumenty o iracionalit\u011b, \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, kolapsu strategick\u00e9 kultury v nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9m t\u00e1bo\u0159e atd. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana sleduje zcela racion\u00e1ln\u00ed a pochopiteln\u00e9 c\u00edle, ale je zcela slep\u00e1 k c\u00edl\u016fm a motiv\u016fm nep\u0159\u00edtele.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice je r\u016fst protekcionismu kombinov\u00e1n s objektivn\u00ed nemo\u017enost\u00ed uzav\u0159\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161inu v\u00fdrobn\u00edch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f na vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed, a to i pro nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b. Nap\u0159\u00edklad Rusko se nyn\u00ed s velk\u00fdm \u00fasil\u00edm sna\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1t se jedinou zem\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00e1 je schopna vyr\u00e1b\u011bt vlastn\u00ed civiln\u00ed letadla. V mnoha odv\u011btv\u00edch se v\u0161ak v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti nebude t\u011b\u0161it sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti, u\u017e jen kv\u016fli neschopnosti vyr\u00e1b\u011bt modern\u00ed elektronick\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1stky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch neust\u00e1l\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch v\u00e1lek se jak\u00e1koli z\u00e1vislost m\u011bn\u00ed ve zranitelnost, ale zbavit se z\u00e1vislosti je nemo\u017en\u00e9. Z\u00e1vislost lze \u0159\u00eddit pouze v ekonomick\u00e9 a technologick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e a minimalizovat rizika. A to se st\u00e1v\u00e1 jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u0159ebujeme nov\u00e1 krit\u00e9ria pro hodnocen\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly st\u00e1t\u016f, nov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstupy k pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 politice, novou teorii jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, nov\u00fd syst\u00e9m kontroly zbrojen\u00ed a nov\u00e9 metody ekonomick\u00e9ho progn\u00f3zov\u00e1n\u00ed schopn\u00e9 fungovat v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nejistoty a absence pravidel. Pokusy o hled\u00e1n\u00ed hotov\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v historii (vlastn\u00ed nebo ciz\u00ed) jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9: v minulosti neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 hotov\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi na aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed ot\u00e1zky.<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vasilij Ka\u0161in<\/a> , politolog, orientalista<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace m\u011blo Rusko v \u00famyslu rychle a relativn\u011b bezkrvav\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161it \u201eukrajinsk\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88029,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,41,26,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88028"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88028\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}