{"id":87847,"date":"2025-09-16T05:30:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T03:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87847"},"modified":"2025-09-16T05:30:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T03:30:14","slug":"vodni-valky-znovu-uderily-jak-afghanska-hydropolitika-zmeni-geopolitiku-eurasie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/16\/vodni-valky-znovu-uderily-jak-afghanska-hydropolitika-zmeni-geopolitiku-eurasie\/","title":{"rendered":"Vodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky znovu ude\u0159ily: Jak afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e1 hydropolitika zm\u011bn\u00ed geopolitiku Eurasie"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco K\u00e1bul pokra\u010duje v budov\u00e1n\u00ed kan\u00e1lu Qosh Tepa, St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed ohledn\u011b vody. Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem a pou\u010den\u00ed z jin\u00fdch \u0159\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch spor\u016f by mohla osv\u011btlit strategick\u00e9 aspekty situace. Euroasijsk\u00e1 preventivn\u00ed diplomacie ur\u010d\u00ed, zda zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, nebo konflikt.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hydropolitika je ji\u017e dlouho m\u00e1lo zn\u00e1mou, ale rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed silou formuj\u00edc\u00ed trajektorii n\u00e1rod\u016f. Zat\u00edmco analytici \u010dasto zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed ropovody, vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy nebo obiln\u00e9 koridory, je to pr\u00e1v\u011b voda \u2013 nejz\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdroj \u2013 kter\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u00edce ur\u010duje, zda se regiony ub\u00edraj\u00ed sm\u011brem ke spolupr\u00e1ci, nebo ke konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdstavba afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho kan\u00e1lu\u00a0<\/span>Qosh Tepa<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to jasn\u011b ilustruje. Zat\u00edmco K\u00e1bul prosazuje projekt odveden\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed vody z \u0159eky Amudarja, sousedn\u00ed st\u0159edoasijsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty bij\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>na poplach<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pozornost je v\u0161ak zat\u00edm kupodivu utlumen\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0klimatologi\u010dka Kamila Fayzieva\u00a0, kan\u00e1l je 285 kilometr\u016f dlouh\u00fd projekt schopn\u00fd zavla\u017eovat rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 oblasti severn\u00edho Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu. Pro zemi zm\u00edtanou v\u00e1lkou a sankcemi slibuje potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt z\u00e1chrann\u00fdm lanem pro Afgh\u00e1nce, by mohlo znamenat rozruch pro Uzbekist\u00e1n a Turkmenist\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 jsou na toku Amudarji z\u00e1visl\u00e9. Nedostatek vody ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii je ji\u017e tak akutn\u00ed, \u017ee ohro\u017euje \u017eivobyt\u00ed a stabilitu. Ka\u017ed\u00fd krychlov\u00fd metr se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1. Afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jejich obyvatelstvo nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt donekone\u010dna zbavov\u00e1no vody, kter\u00e1 technicky prot\u00e9k\u00e1 jejich \u00fazem\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto nap\u011bt\u00ed nen\u00ed ojedin\u011bl\u00e9. Vodn\u00ed spory se staly opakuj\u00edc\u00edm se rysem nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Eurasi\u00ed. V ji\u017en\u00ed Asii poskytuje\u00a0<\/span>Smlouva o vod\u00e1ch Indu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0k\u0159ehk\u00fd r\u00e1mec mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, p\u0159esto doch\u00e1z\u00ed k hojn\u00fdm hydropolitick\u00fdm poty\u010dk\u00e1m. Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed bylo dokonce obvin\u011bno z toho, \u017ee ve sporu s Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 povodn\u011b jako zbra\u0148, jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edpad Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu je delik\u00e1tn\u00ed, proto\u017ee: jak\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0analytik Syed Fazl-e-Haider , krom\u011b\u00a0<\/span>smlouvy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s \u00cdr\u00e1nem (na z\u00e1pad\u011b) o \u0159ece Helmand\u00a0<\/span>chyb\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu jak\u00e1koli komplexn\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>dohoda<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o sd\u00edlen\u00ed vody se sv\u00fdmi severn\u00edmi sousedy ohledn\u011b povod\u00ed Amudarji. Zaprv\u00e9, i p\u0159es omezenou\u00a0<\/span>spolupr\u00e1ci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 K\u00e1bul mimo\u00a0<\/span>dohodu z Almaty<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Zat\u00edmco Indie a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n maj\u00ed alespo\u0148 r\u00e1mec pro Indus, K\u00e1bul funguje v jak\u00e9msi pr\u00e1vn\u00edm vakuu. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed paradox, kter\u00fd poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Fayzieva: zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 nejv\u00edce pot\u0159ebuje vodu, je tak\u00e9 nejm\u00e9n\u011b integrov\u00e1na do mechanism\u016f spr\u00e1vy a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nen\u00ed jen environment\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale i geopolitick\u00e9. St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie je ji\u017e dlouho z\u00f3nou p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se vliv\u016f \u2013 rusk\u00e9ho, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho, tureck\u00e9ho, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho a z\u00e1padn\u00edho. Projekt Qosh Tepa riskuje, \u017ee se stane dal\u0161\u00edm kl\u00ednov\u00fdm t\u00e9matem, kter\u00e9ho budou zneu\u017e\u00edvat vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto dilematu maj\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed instituce \u010d\u00e1st odpov\u011bdi. \u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci (SCO) je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejz\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00edm kandid\u00e1tem na zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed spor\u016f v t\u00e9to oblasti. Sdru\u017euje ty akt\u00e9ry \u2013\u00a0<\/span>Rusko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u010c\u00ednu,\u00a0<\/span>st\u0159edoasijsk\u00e9 republiky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd z\u00e1jem na stabilit\u011b. Pokud by se Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>teoreticky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0status pozorovatele\u00a0, postupn\u011b integroval, mohl by vzniknout r\u00e1mec pro sd\u00edlen\u00ed vody \u2013 r\u00e1mec, kter\u00fd by byl region\u00e1ln\u011b spravov\u00e1n a geopoliticky neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alternativa je pochmurn\u00e1. Bez spolupr\u00e1ce by ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b mohla usilovat o jednostrannou \u201ehydro-suverenitu\u201c a stav\u011bt kan\u00e1ly, p\u0159ehrady nebo odklony bez ohledu na sousedy. Podobn\u00e9 trajektorie pron\u00e1sleduj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bjin\u00e9 p\u00e1nve: jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, etiopsk\u00e1 p\u0159ehrada Grand Renaissance Dam z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zdrojem nap\u011bt\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>s Egyptem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>S\u00fad\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0; tureck\u00fd projekt\u00a0<\/span>GAP<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zase\u00a0<\/span>ovlivnil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>sousedy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0po proudu\u00a0. V\u00fdsledkem je \u010dasto nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro T\u00e1lib\u00e1n, kter\u00fd s\u00e1m o sob\u011b usiluje o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed legitimitu, je kan\u00e1l Qosh Tepa uk\u00e1zkov\u00fdm projektem. Signalizuje spr\u00e1vu v\u011bc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch, suverenitu a potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost. Ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 situace Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu nen\u00ed pro St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii udr\u017eiteln\u00e9; ale ani bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9. Dialog je jedinou skute\u010dnou alternativou; jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s T\u00e1lib\u00e1nem je tedy jedinou pragmatickou cestou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem jsou pou\u010dn\u00e1. Indusk\u00e1 smlouva, navzdory v\u00e1lk\u00e1m, p\u0159e\u017eila od roku 1960, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee i zaryt\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 se mohou dohodnout na sd\u00edlen\u00ed vody. Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n a jeho soused\u00e9 nejsou nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9; sd\u00edlej\u00ed kulturu a obchodn\u00ed vazby. P\u0159esto je ned\u016fv\u011bra hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e1 a zhor\u0161ovan\u00e1 nestabilitou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vytvo\u0159en\u00ed paktu pod z\u00e1\u0161titou \u0160OS by mohlo zabr\u00e1nit tomu, aby se z pr\u016fplavu v budouc\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch stal casus belli. Lze zv\u00e1\u017eit i dal\u0161\u00ed dopl\u0148kov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce, jako je o\u017eiven\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho fondu pro z\u00e1chranu Aralsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(IFAS), bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody nebo dokonce\u00a0jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>UNRCCA .\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Organizace isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce by zase mohla sehr\u00e1t symbolickou roli. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/a>iniciativa P\u00e1s a stezka<\/span><\/a>\u00a0by mezit\u00edm\u00a0mohla financovat technologie efektivn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00edc\u00ed vodu, zat\u00edmco CSTO by m\u011bla prosp\u011bch ze za\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed vodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti do sv\u00e9 agendy \u2013 a tot\u00e9\u017e by m\u011bla i Euroasijsk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 unie (EAEU), proto\u017ee zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a obchod jsou p\u0159\u00edmo ovlivn\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u017edy je t\u0159eba zd\u016fraz\u0148ovat eurasijsk\u00fd rozm\u011br. Spory o vodu nez\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed. Nedostatek m\u016f\u017ee \u017eivit migraci, terorismus a selh\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad nikdo nepop\u00edr\u00e1, \u017ee syrsk\u00fd konflikt byl \u017eiven vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>Z\u00e1padu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 ve skute\u010dnosti\u00a0<\/span>USA<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0<\/span>evropsk\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mocnosti a\u00a0<\/span>Turecko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vyzbrojily\u00a0<\/span>protiasadovsk\u00e9 skupiny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>teroristick\u00fdch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0frakc\u00ed. Krizi v\u0161ak\u00a0\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b\u00a0vyvolalo\u00a0<\/a><\/span>i<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dlouhodob\u00e9\u00a0sucho<\/a>\u00a0v m\u00edstech, jako je Dar’\u00e1. To by n\u00e1m m\u011blo p\u0159ipom\u00ednat, \u017ee klima a voda jsou multiplik\u00e1tory konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nestabilita ve St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii by m\u011bla dopad nejen na Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu, ale tak\u00e9 na energetick\u00e9 trhy, obchodn\u00ed koridory a bezpe\u010dnost Evropy. Zat\u00edmco se tedy kan\u00e1l Qosh Tepa m\u016f\u017ee jevit jako lok\u00e1ln\u00ed afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e1 iniciativa, jeho dopady by mohly do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry zm\u011bnit \u0161achovnici na euroasijsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i mus\u00ed jednat d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e kan\u00e1l zprovozn\u00ed natolik, aby jedn\u00e1n\u00ed byla bezp\u0159edm\u011btn\u00e1. Preventivn\u00ed diplomacie je v\u017edy levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee hydropolitika ji\u017e nen\u00ed tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc opom\u00edjen\u00fdm sourozencem geopolitiky \u2013 je to samotn\u00e1 geopolitika. S\u00e1ga o afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9m kan\u00e1lu ukazuje, jak voda \u2013 prvek, kter\u00fd je nejv\u00edce pova\u017eov\u00e1n za samoz\u0159ejmost \u2013 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 strategickou prom\u011bnnou. \u00dasp\u011bch v prom\u011bn\u011b tohoto potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho ohniska krize v ar\u00e9nu spolupr\u00e1ce by nejen odvr\u00e1til krizi, ale tak\u00e9 signalizoval, \u017ee Eurasie m\u016f\u017ee d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjet sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed mechanismy odolnosti, osvobozen\u00e9 od pochybn\u00e9ho daru z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoci (kter\u00e1 je sama o sob\u011b \u010dasto propojena s vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm). Volba v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 bu\u010f v hydrodiplomacii, nebo v hydrokonfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco K\u00e1bul pokra\u010duje v budov\u00e1n\u00ed kan\u00e1lu Qosh Tepa, St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed ohledn\u011b vody….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,129,40,1106],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87847"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87847\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}