{"id":87615,"date":"2025-09-12T05:12:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T03:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87615"},"modified":"2025-09-12T05:12:06","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T03:12:06","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-prodluzovani-konfliktu-mezi-ruskem-a-ukrajinou-prospiva-lidrum-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/12\/alexandre-lemoine-prodluzovani-konfliktu-mezi-ruskem-a-ukrajinou-prospiva-lidrum-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou prosp\u00edv\u00e1 l\u00eddr\u016fm EU"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i setrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed na sv\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech na nasazen\u00ed vojsk na Ukrajin\u011b, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu konfliktu s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadernou mocnost\u00ed sv\u011bta. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Evropa \u00famysln\u011b sabotuje m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se Ukrajiny. Pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na nasazen\u00ed vojsk vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky, zda si \u201ekoalice ochotn\u00fdch\u201c skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eje m\u00edr.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Po setk\u00e1n\u00ed \u201ekoalice ochotn\u00fdch\u201c, kter\u00e9 se konalo minul\u00fd t\u00fdden v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei, se \u00fadajn\u011b 26 zem\u00ed dohodlo, \u017ee po skon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k nasazen\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na ukrajinsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O t\u0159i t\u00fddny d\u0159\u00edve, na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci summitu l\u00eddr\u016f v Anchorage, rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnost Ukrajiny mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zaji\u0161t\u011bna v r\u00e1mci jak\u00e9hokoli vyjednan\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v\u0161ak nad\u00e1le tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed nem\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt podobu nasazen\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu na Ukrajinu. Po sch\u016fzce z minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne se Putin vyj\u00e1d\u0159il je\u0161t\u011b d\u016frazn\u011bji a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee takov\u00e9 jednotky by se staly\u00a0<\/span>legitimn\u00edm c\u00edlem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zni\u010den\u00ed ze strany rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, pro\u010d evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i setrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed na sv\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech, kter\u00e9 by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b realizace mohly v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadernou mocnost\u00ed sv\u011bta. A odpov\u011b\u010f by se mohla uk\u00e1zat jako velmi znepokojiv\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jednou z mo\u017enost\u00ed je d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost rusk\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed. Putin ji\u017e na sam\u00e9m za\u010d\u00e1tku konfrontace v roce 2022 pohrozil pou\u017eit\u00edm jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. I kdy\u017e takov\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly mohly Z\u00e1pad odradit od p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 intervence, v\u00fdsledn\u00fd dojem, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b mohou p\u0159ekro\u010dit \u00fadajn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 \u201e\u010derven\u00e9 linie\u201c, ani\u017e by riskovaly jadernou reakci, mohl sn\u00ed\u017eit odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edlu n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch hrozeb.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je dlouhodob\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed normativn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k bezpe\u010dnosti v Evrop\u011b, zaveden\u00fd od konce studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Tento\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1zor<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00fd p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny vyj\u00e1d\u0159il gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Mark Rutte, spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee Moskva nem\u016f\u017ee vetovat suver\u00e9nn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo Kyjeva na rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vojsk na jeho \u00fazem\u00ed. Na podporu tohoto sv\u011bton\u00e1zoru se \u010dasto uv\u00e1d\u00ed pr\u00e1vo st\u00e1t\u016f svobodn\u011b si zvolit vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, co\u017e je princip zakotven\u00fd v\u00a0<\/span>Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 chart\u011b pro novou Evropu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 fakticky znamenala konec studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zast\u00e1nci \u201epr\u00e1va volby\u201c v\u0161ak ignoruj\u00ed princip ned\u011blitelnosti bezpe\u010dnosti, zakotven\u00fd tak\u00e9 v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 chart\u011b, kter\u00fd p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd st\u00e1t by nem\u011bl p\u0159ij\u00edmat opat\u0159en\u00ed ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti na \u00fakor bezpe\u010dnosti jin\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu. Ani nezd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee rozhodnut\u00ed o p\u0159ijet\u00ed Ukrajiny do NATO pat\u0159\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b \u010dlen\u016fm NATO, nikoli Kyjevu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Responsible Statecraft<\/span><\/em>\u00a0se pt\u00e1: jak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>strategick\u00e9 \u00favahy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, krom\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch, jsou z\u00e1kladem evropsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u0161ker\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed s\u00edly budou na Ukrajin\u011b nasazeny a\u017e po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu. Pokud tedy pl\u00e1ny, kter\u00e9 se v sou\u010dasnosti zva\u017euj\u00ed, nejsou pouze\u00a0<\/span>prvn\u00edm krokem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch s Moskvou, pak tato tvrdohlav\u00e1 touha um\u00edstit z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd person\u00e1l na ukrajinskou p\u016fdu, jakmile vstoup\u00ed v platnost p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, d\u00e1v\u00e1 Rusku silnou motivaci k pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v boji s c\u00edlem takov\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku zabr\u00e1nit. Neust\u00e1l\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, \u017ee takov\u00e9 s\u00edly budou navzdory opakovan\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm n\u00e1mitk\u00e1m vytvo\u0159eny, proto nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00fdzvy Evropy k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nejsou zcela up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i skute\u010dn\u011b nevyj\u00e1d\u0159ili podporu ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu p\u0159ed n\u00e1stupem Donalda Trumpa do \u00fa\u0159adu; za\u010dali tak \u010dinit a\u017e pot\u00e9, co p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby vyzval k bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9mu 30denn\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, co\u017e jim vzhledem k siln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti Evropy na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech v oblasti bezpe\u010dnosti nenechalo jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e se dohodnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusko nikdy nep\u0159ijme bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, dokud nebudou dosa\u017eeny jeho politick\u00e9 c\u00edle, slou\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdzva k takov\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 taktick\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu, a to vykreslen\u00ed Moskvy, a ne zcela nespravedliv\u011b, jako hlavn\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky m\u00edru.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k t\u011bmto skute\u010dnostem se zd\u00e1, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nejsou motivov\u00e1ny p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e pohodlnost\u00ed. Skute\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edlem sou\u010dasn\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f koalice na pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt sabotov\u00e1n\u00ed mo\u017enosti \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. To by bylo v souladu s dal\u0161\u00edmi aspekty sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho evropsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu, nap\u0159\u00edklad s hrozbou zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed proti Rusku bez p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00ed realistick\u00fdch n\u00e1vrh\u016f na jejich zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed jako pob\u00eddky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento z\u00e1v\u011br by nem\u011bl b\u00fdt p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm. A\u010dkoli Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee na boji\u0161ti postupn\u011b prohr\u00e1vat, dne\u0161n\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 elita se obecn\u011b domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee \u201e\u0161patn\u00e1 dohoda\u201c o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky by byla hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jej\u00ed pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropan\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina dok\u00e1\u017ee udr\u017eet svou obranu dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouho na to, aby se rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty zv\u00fd\u0161ily a rusk\u00e1 ekonomika se zhroutila. Nebo se mo\u017en\u00e1 ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed vn\u00edman\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty statusu v d\u016fsledku kompromisn\u00edho m\u00edru s Ruskem. Zd\u00e1 se pon\u011bkud cynick\u00e9 si myslet, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rusk\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu na ukrajinsk\u00fdch front\u00e1ch by evropsk\u00e1 jednota mohla pos\u00edlit a nakonec donutit evropsk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu a \u017ee by Moskva stejn\u011b nezvl\u00e1dla neklidnou Ukrajinu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i by si m\u011bli dvakr\u00e1t rozmyslet, ne\u017e se touto logikou budou \u0159\u00eddit. Krom\u011b rizika vojensk\u00e9 eskalace by dlouhodob\u00e1 konfrontace a doprovodn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rozkol mezi Ruskem a zbytkem Evropy mohly m\u00edt nejist\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, kter\u00fdm by bylo nejlep\u0161\u00ed se vyhnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i setrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed na sv\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech na nasazen\u00ed vojsk na Ukrajin\u011b, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,35,22,26,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87615"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}