{"id":87578,"date":"2025-09-12T00:26:51","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T22:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87578"},"modified":"2025-09-11T10:56:46","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:56:46","slug":"andrew-korybko-hlasene-vpady-ruskych-dronu-do-polska-mohly-byt-zpusobeny-rusenim-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/12\/andrew-korybko-hlasene-vpady-ruskych-dronu-do-polska-mohly-byt-zpusobeny-rusenim-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 vp\u00e1dy rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f do Polska mohly b\u00fdt zp\u016fsobeny ru\u0161en\u00edm NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Rusko riskovalo sjednocen\u00ed Z\u00e1padu kolem bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny nad Ukrajinou \u00famyslnou provokac\u00ed proti Polsku nebo dokonce jen proveden\u00edm pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 mise ve vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru NATO.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Polsko\u00a0<\/span>tvrdilo,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u017ee ve st\u0159edu r\u00e1no sest\u0159elilo n\u011bkolik rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b vnikly do jeho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru b\u011bhem nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f proti Ukrajin\u011b. Stalo se tak uprost\u0159ed\u00a0<\/span>prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed Polska, Litvy a NATO,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>kter\u00fdch se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed 30 000 polsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, a t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed\u00a0<\/span>nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm rusko-b\u011blorusk\u00fdm cvi\u010den\u00edm Z\u00e1pad 2025.\u00a0<\/span><\/a>N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed se proto domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee se jednalo bu\u010f o \u00famyslnou provokaci ze strany Ruska, nebo o zpackanou pr\u016fzkumnou misi, ale mohlo to b\u00fdt\u00a0<\/span>zp\u016fsobeno pouze ru\u0161en\u00edm NATO\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno se objevily argumenty, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0<\/span>podvod mezi von der Leyenovou, GPS a Ruskem by mohl b\u00fdt n\u011b\u010d\u00edm v\u00edc ne\u017e jen z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm levn\u00fdch informa\u010dn\u00edch bod\u016f \u201c, pot\u00e9, co\u00a0<\/span><\/a>samotn\u00e1 Sofie\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia\u00a0<\/a><\/span>vyvr\u00e1tila dramatick\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko \u00fadajn\u011b ru\u0161ilo jej\u00ed letadlo p\u0159i pokusu o p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed v Bulharsku\u00a0<\/span>. Alternativn\u00ed teorie, kter\u00e1 byla p\u0159edlo\u017eena, spo\u010d\u00edvala v tom, \u017ee tento fale\u0161n\u00fd narativ m\u011bl ospravedlnit agresivn\u00ed ru\u0161en\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f v Kaliningradu, a\u010dkoli by to mohlo b\u00fdt nam\u00ed\u0159eno i proti B\u011blorusku vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee host\u00ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed Z\u00e1pad 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e9 ru\u0161en\u00ed mohlo zp\u016fsobit, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 drony b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f proti Ukrajin\u011b odch\u00fdlily kurz do Polska. Agresivn\u00ed ru\u0161en\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f mohlo tak\u00e9 p\u0159edch\u00e1zet realizaci hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f na zaveden\u00ed bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny alespo\u0148 nad \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Ukrajiny v souvislosti se\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1padn\u00edmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi z\u00e1rukami\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pro tuto zemi. A\u010dkoli to nen\u00ed zdaleka tak spolehliv\u00e9 jako hl\u00eddky nad ukrajinsk\u00fdm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem a povolen\u00ed st\u00edha\u010dek Patriot se z\u00e1kladnami NATO k ochran\u011b jeho nebe, s sebou by to neslo mnohem men\u0161\u00ed riziko eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc, pokud NATO o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee jeho spekulativn\u00ed ru\u0161en\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zes\u00edlen\u00e9 po podvodu mezi von der Leyenovou, GPS a Ruskem, kter\u00fd mohl b\u00fdt na\u010dasov\u00e1n tak, aby se shodoval s nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm cvi\u010den\u00edm Z\u00e1pad 2025 \u2013 zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 drony odch\u00fdl\u00ed od kurzu, pak by to mohlo b\u00fdt sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159edem pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 eskalace. C\u00edlem by mohlo b\u00fdt z\u00edskat podporu pro v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd n\u00e1vrh bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, nebo dokonce zah\u00e1jit postupn\u00fd proces jeho implementace pod z\u00e1minkou \u201eproaktivn\u00ed obrany\u201c s ohledem na tento incident.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po v\u00edce ne\u017e 3,5 letech\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>Rusko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prozkoumalo v\u0161e, co by realisticky odpov\u00eddalo sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kdy n\u011bkolik jeho dron\u016f p\u0159elet\u00ed do Polska, a tv\u016frci politik si tak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee by toho mohlo b\u00fdt zneu\u017eito k prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed pl\u00e1nu na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny. V\u00fd\u0161e \u200b\u200buveden\u00fd poznatek proto sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se jednalo o \u00famyslnou provokaci nebo zpackanou pr\u016fzkumnou misi, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e oboj\u00ed by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bylo provedeno s rozs\u00e1hlou silou, aby se kompromis mezi n\u00e1klady a v\u00fdnosy vyplatil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je podobn\u00e1 logika, jako ta, kter\u00e1 byla ned\u00e1vno sd\u00edlena v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze,\u00a0<\/span>kde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>se argumentuje, \u017ee Rusko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u00famysln\u011b nezam\u011b\u0159ilo na budovu kabinetu ministr\u016f v Kyjev\u011b, aby se vyhnulo podn\u00edcen\u00ed pl\u00e1nu na bezletovou z\u00f3nu. Zat\u00edmco tento konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed incident mohl b\u00fdt n\u00e1hodn\u011b zp\u016fsoben troskami dronu, ten posledn\u00ed mohl b\u00fdt napl\u00e1nov\u00e1n v mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e, pokud by za n\u011bj skute\u010dn\u011b bylo zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 ru\u0161en\u00ed NATO, jak se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1. Zda se v\u0161ak Polsko v d\u016fsledku toho z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9 bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny nad Ukrajinou, teprve uvid\u00edme.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd prezident Andrzej Duda\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vno odhalil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee se Zelenskyj sna\u017eil manipulovat Polsko do v\u00e1lky s Ruskem kv\u016fli incidentu v Przewodow\u011b v listopadu 2022, kter\u00e9mu se odm\u00edtl podvolit, zat\u00edmco jeho n\u00e1stupce Karol Nawrocki\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ed druh\u00fdm kolem\u00a0<\/span>voleb sl\u00edbil, \u017ee na Ukrajinu nenasad\u00ed vojska. Tato politick\u00e1 kontinuita, kter\u00e1 se shoduje s t\u00edm, \u017ee Pol\u00e1ci\u00a0<\/span><\/a>u\u017e maj\u00ed dost\u00a0<\/a>ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f a tohoto\u00a0sousedn\u00edho konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>, by mohla zhatit pl\u00e1ny NATO manipulovat Polsko do v\u00e1lky, i kdy\u017e by st\u00e1le mohlo souhlasit se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm ru\u0161en\u00ed sign\u00e1l\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Rusko riskovalo sjednocen\u00ed Z\u00e1padu kolem bezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny nad Ukrajinou \u00famyslnou provokac\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87579,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2856,39,31,7259],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87578"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}