{"id":87564,"date":"2025-09-12T00:18:13","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T22:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87564"},"modified":"2025-09-11T10:03:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T08:03:15","slug":"sok-z-pruzkumu-vetsina-evropanu-se-obava-svetove-valky-do-deseti-let","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/12\/sok-z-pruzkumu-vetsina-evropanu-se-obava-svetove-valky-do-deseti-let\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0160ok z pr\u016fzkumu: V\u011bt\u0161ina Evropan\u016f se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky do deseti let"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1lady v Evrop\u011b uprost\u0159ed jadern\u00fdch obav<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

V\u00e1lka ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b znovu rozdm\u00fdchala star\u00e9 no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fry. Rozd\u011blila evropsk\u00e9 metropole mezi touhu demonstrovat jednotu s Kyjevem a strach, \u017ee by se kontinent mohl ocitnout v epicentru nov\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu. Tento strach se stal obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b hmatateln\u00fdm na ja\u0159e a v l\u00e9t\u011b roku 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u016fzkum agentury YouGov v nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>41 % a\u017e 55 %<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0obyvatel Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie, Francie, N\u011bmecka, It\u00e1lie a \u0160pan\u011blska se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch deseti letech by mohla vypuknout nov\u00e1 sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. V\u011bt\u0161ina z nich o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 jadern\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Tato \u010d\u00edsla byla prominentn\u011b zd\u016frazn\u011bna v p\u0159edn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch a formovala celou diskusi. Zdroj pr\u016fzkumu je seri\u00f3zn\u00ed, ale obraz, kter\u00fd vykresluje, vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, zda se dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace nestala p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 riskantn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1lady nad r\u00e1mec statistik<\/span><\/h2>\n

Protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1lady se neodr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed jen v \u010d\u00edslech. V evropsk\u00fdch m\u011bstech prob\u00edhaj\u00ed ji\u017e n\u011bkolik let protesty proti dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m zbran\u00ed a roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 infrastruktury. Ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii aktivist\u00e9 vedou lidi na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, kde se diskutuje o rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. V N\u011bmecku opakovan\u011b vypuknou pochody proti eskalaci a za p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Ty se z\u0159\u00eddkakdy rozvinou v masov\u00e1 hnut\u00ed, ale jejich vytrvalost nazna\u010duje, \u017ee protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 tradice na kontinentu st\u00e1le \u017eije.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 dilema a \u201edvoj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup\u201c<\/span><\/h2>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie pokra\u010duje ve sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 podpo\u0159e Kyjeva. Brusel schvaluje nov\u00e9 bal\u00ed\u010dky pomoci, diskutuje o pos\u00edlen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1 spole\u010dn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed dokumenty EU zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed pot\u0159ebu udr\u017eovat rovnov\u00e1hu mezi odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm Moskvy a zachov\u00e1n\u00edm minim\u00e1ln\u00edch vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch kan\u00e1l\u016f. NATO opakuje sv\u00e9 formule o \u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik\u201c, ale samotn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 pochybnosti: Je v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9 \u201e\u0159\u00eddit\u201c rizika, pokud jde o Rusko a jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b?<\/span><\/p>\n

Francie a Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie n\u00e1m p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed arzen\u00e1ly. Prezident Emmanuel Macron prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee francouzsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ch\u00e1p\u00e1n jako faktor evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti. Odborn\u00edci v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a Lond\u00fdn\u011b v\u0161ak p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee jeho schopnosti jsou omezen\u00e9 a nelze je srovn\u00e1vat s mo\u017enostmi Ruska nebo Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Je to sp\u00ed\u0161e symbolick\u00fd sign\u00e1l pro jejich vlastn\u00ed publikum ne\u017e skute\u010dn\u00e1 strategie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ve velk\u00fdch metropol\u00edch rozv\u00edj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201edvoj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed produkci zbran\u00ed, navy\u0161uj\u00ed rozpo\u010dty a koordinuj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 zad\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je z\u0159ejm\u00e1 neochota zapojit se do p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace s Ruskem. Man\u00e9vry NATO bez ostr\u00e9 munice jsou jasn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem toho, jak se signalizuje odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed a projevuje opatrnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 centra poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee Moskva nezm\u00edr\u0148uje svou jadernou r\u00e9toriku a vn\u00edm\u00e1 ji jako prost\u0159edek tlaku na tempo z\u00e1padn\u00ed pomoci. Evropa reaguje stejnou m\u011brou \u2013 ostr\u00fdmi slovy a prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi o \u201ezadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce takov\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f je v\u0161ak vys\u00edl\u00e1no, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je riziko ne\u00famysln\u00e9 eskalace. Akademick\u00e1 literatura se znovu zab\u00fdv\u00e1 t\u00e9matem \u201eod prevence k deeskalaci\u201c a uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee diplomatick\u00e1 nervozita sama o sob\u011b tla\u010d\u00ed lidi k chyb\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u0159ejn\u00fd paradox a dra\u017een\u00fd konsenzus<\/span><\/h2>\n

V evropsk\u00fdch spole\u010dnostech se objevuje paradox. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b se zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st populace domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee podpora Kyjeva je nezbytn\u00e1 k odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed hrozeb. Na druhou stranu nikdo nechce vid\u011bt sv\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed m\u011bsta na seznamu mo\u017en\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f jadern\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny. V N\u011bmecku pr\u016fzkumy ukazuj\u00ed jasn\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi generacemi a regiony \u2013 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty jsou opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, z\u00e1padn\u00ed odhodlan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e9dia odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed dva my\u0161lenkov\u00e9 sm\u011bry. Jeden vol\u00e1 po p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00edch a urychlen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pomoci. Druh\u00fd se zasazuje o vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm intervenc\u00edm. Odborn\u00edci diskutuj\u00ed o r\u016fzn\u00fdch form\u00e1ch \u201epoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c pro Ukrajinu \u2013 od z\u00f3n protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a\u017e po dlouhodob\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky. Jedna v\u011bc je v\u0161ak jasn\u00e1: tyto projekty nejsou ani tak projevem ochoty bojovat na \u017eivot a na smrt, jako sp\u00ed\u0161e pokusem z\u00edskat \u010das a utlumit strach ve\u0159ejnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko tuto rovnov\u00e1hu ilustruje obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b jasn\u011b. Vl\u00e1da se pou\u0161t\u00ed do rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch investic do obrany, ale mus\u00ed postupn\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit ob\u010dany o nutnosti tohoto postupu. Dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed se setk\u00e1vaj\u00ed se souhlasem, ale nasazen\u00ed vlastn\u00edch vojsk je kategoricky odm\u00edt\u00e1no. Kabinet proto formuluje sv\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed co nejopatrn\u011bji a db\u00e1 na to, aby v o\u010d\u00edch ve\u0159ejnosti nep\u0159ekro\u010dil \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201e\u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e1 pam\u011b\u0165 tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky tvo\u0159\u00ed pozad\u00ed cel\u00e9 debaty. Ekonomick\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, energetick\u00e9 obavy a z\u00e1plava informac\u00ed jsou umocn\u011bny jadern\u00fdm faktorem, co\u017e p\u0159i\u017eivuje pocit existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konsenzus v Evrop\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 na t\u0159ech pil\u00ed\u0159\u00edch: vzpom\u00ednce na minul\u00e9 katastrofy, strachu z opakov\u00e1n\u00ed a odm\u00edtnut\u00ed p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et nadm\u011brn\u00e9 ob\u011bti pro v\u00e1lku druh\u00fdch. Zat\u00edmco elity usiluj\u00ed o zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a znovuvyzbrojen\u00ed, kolektivn\u00ed v\u011bdom\u00ed po\u017eaduje n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho: zachov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edru za ka\u017edou cenu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1lady v Evrop\u011b uprost\u0159ed jadern\u00fdch obav V\u00e1lka ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b znovu rozdm\u00fdchala star\u00e9 no\u010dn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61607,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[283,7286,1748,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87564"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}