{"id":87342,"date":"2025-09-09T00:31:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T22:31:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87342"},"modified":"2025-09-08T20:01:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T18:01:03","slug":"uriel-araujo-zneuzivani-povodni-jako-zbrane-indicko-pakistanske-vodni-valky-ohrozuji-jizni-asii-a-eurasii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/09\/uriel-araujo-zneuzivani-povodni-jako-zbrane-indicko-pakistanske-vodni-valky-ohrozuji-jizni-asii-a-eurasii\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed povodn\u00ed jako zbran\u011b? Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky ohro\u017euj\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed Asii a Eurasii"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem roste uprost\u0159ed obvin\u011bn\u00ed ze zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody jako zbran\u00ed pot\u00e9, co povodn\u011b vyhnaly z domov\u016f 1,8 milionu lid\u00ed. Kontrola nad \u0159ekou Indus je ji\u017e dlouho geopolitickou zlomovou lini\u00ed, kterou nyn\u00ed zhor\u0161uj\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, nepravideln\u00e9 monzuny a obchodn\u00ed ot\u0159esy z Trumpovy \u00e9ry. V s\u00e1zce je glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u0160OS a BRICS nab\u00edzej\u00ed alternativy k k\u0159ehk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 diplomacii.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indick\u00fd subkontinent se op\u011bt ocitl na pokraji konfrontace. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u00a0<\/span>obvinil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Indii z \u00famysln\u00e9ho zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vodn\u00edch tok\u016f jako zbran\u011b, aby zhor\u0161il katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>povodn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 vyhnaly z domov\u016f t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0<\/span>1,8 milionu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0lid\u00ed v Pa\u0148d\u017e\u00e1bu a Sindhu. Ob\u011b zem\u011b byly ve skute\u010dnosti t\u011b\u017ece zasa\u017eeny klimatick\u00fdmi katastrofami a\u00a0<\/span>samotn\u00e1 Indie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0trp\u011bla stejn\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00fdmi de\u0161ti. Toto obvin\u011bn\u00ed je v\u0161ak politicky zat\u00ed\u017een\u00e9: kontrola nad \u0159\u00ed\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem Indus byla v\u017edy ot\u00e1zkou suverenity, p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed a konfrontace mezi Dill\u00ed a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historicky vzato, Smlouva o vod\u00e1ch Indu z roku 1960, \u010dasto oslavovan\u00e1 jako vz\u00e1cn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f, p\u0159e\u017eila v\u00e1lky a krize. Byla v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 n\u00e1strojem p\u00e1ky. Kdykoli v Ka\u0161m\u00edru vzplanulo nap\u011bt\u00ed, Indie nev\u00e1hala pohrozit\u00a0<\/span>pozastaven\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dohody, \u010d\u00edm\u017e ohrozila ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehkou vodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu. Ot\u00e1zka vody tak v\u017edy hr\u00e1la stejn\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed roli jako nasazen\u00ed arm\u00e1dy p\u0159i formov\u00e1n\u00ed geopolitick\u00fdch spor\u016f v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, prohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi USA a Indi\u00ed je t\u0159eba vn\u00edmat i ve sv\u011btle tohoto nap\u011bt\u00ed. \u00datok na Ka\u0161m\u00edr \u2013 kter\u00fd CNN popsala jako nejsmrteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok na civilisty za v\u00edce ne\u017e dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159im\u011bl Indii k pozastaven\u00ed Smlouvy o vod\u00e1ch Indu, uzav\u0159en\u00ed hrani\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159echodu Wagah a vyho\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdch diplomat\u016f. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n reagoval uzav\u0159en\u00edm sv\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru pro indick\u00e1 letadla a pozastaven\u00edm obchodu. Hydropolitika je ve skute\u010dnosti vetk\u00e1na do ka\u017ed\u00e9 vrstvy indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho konfliktu, od hrani\u010dn\u00edch poty\u010dek a\u017e po ekonomick\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Obvin\u011bn\u00ed z vodn\u00edch zbran\u00ed je zat\u00edm obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 prok\u00e1zat, ale v regionu, kde m\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00e1 kapka vody existen\u010dn\u00ed d\u016fsledky, rezonuj\u00ed. A\u0165 u\u017e Indie \u00famysln\u011b otev\u0159ela p\u0159ehrady, aby zaplavila p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed (zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tomu tak nen\u00ed), u\u017e jen toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed je dostate\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9 k eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed. Nen\u00ed tedy divu, \u017ee hlasy v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du tuto epizodu prezentuj\u00ed jako sou\u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1tlakov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hydropolitick\u00fd spor nelze odd\u011blit od \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch a geopolitick\u00fdch ot\u0159es\u016f. Podle Humy Rehmanov\u00e9 (hostuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 pracovnice Centra Jamese Martina pro studium ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed) cla americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa na Indii vytvo\u0159ila\u00a0<\/span>ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 ovlivnily indick\u00fd export a dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiku, a t\u00edm oslabily ji\u017e tak napjat\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed vazby Indie s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, Trump se \u010dasto prezentoval jako \u201edohodovatel\u201c schopn\u00fd nastolit m\u00edr, ale v indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jsou jeho intervence, m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, slab\u00e9. Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rivalita mezit\u00edm nad\u00e1le utv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed geopolitiku. Jak jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, nejedn\u00e1 se pouze o lok\u00e1ln\u00ed spor: \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed se nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d Eurasi\u00ed, ovliv\u0148uje energetick\u00e9 koridory, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 investice do \u010d\u00ednsko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho koridoru (CPEC) a strategick\u00e9 kalkulace zem\u00ed NATO i BRICS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u0161ak m\u00e1lo informov\u00e1no o tom, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry zm\u011bna klimatu (a\u0165 u\u017e zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 \u010dlov\u011bkem, \u010di jinak) zv\u011bt\u0161uje star\u00e9 spory.\u00a0<\/span>Him\u00e1lajsk\u00e9 ledovce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0taj\u00ed rychleji, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo,\u00a0<\/span>monzunov\u00e9 cykly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed nepravideln\u00fdmi a Indie i P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se sna\u017e\u00ed adaptovat. Tento ekologick\u00fd ot\u0159es koliduje se zastaral\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi r\u00e1mci. Smlouva o vod\u00e1ch Indu byla navr\u017eena v dob\u011b, kdy takov\u00e1 zm\u011bna klimatu nebyla sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed rovnice. Dnes hydropolitika ji\u017e nen\u00ed pouh\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edm matrikou; je to ot\u00e1zka n\u00e1rodn\u00edho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1padn\u00e9 paralele, v jin\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b, nap\u0159\u00edklad t\u00e1n\u00ed arktick\u00e9ho ledu\u00a0<\/span>otev\u00edr\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0koridory pro plavbu, kter\u00e9 byly d\u0159\u00edve pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nemo\u017en\u00e9 \u2013 s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi\u00a0<\/span>geopolitick\u00fdmi dominov\u00fdmi \u00fa\u010dinky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zp\u011bt k indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edpadu. Ignorov\u00e1n\u00edm t\u011bchto skute\u010dnost\u00ed tv\u016frci politik v obou hlavn\u00edch m\u011bstech z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed zako\u0159en\u011bni v my\u0161len\u00ed s nulov\u00fdm sou\u010dtem. M\u00edsto snahy o kooperativn\u00ed hospoda\u0159en\u00ed s vodou se ob\u011b strany uchyluj\u00ed k nacionalistick\u00e9 r\u00e9torice. V\u00fdsledkem je zp\u011btnovazebn\u00ed smy\u010dka, kde se ka\u017ed\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00ed katastrofa politizuje, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se naru\u0161uje d\u016fv\u011bra a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed se prostor pro chybn\u00e9 odhady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voda se v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1v\u00e1 zdrojem, o kter\u00fd by se mohly v budoucnu v\u00e9st v\u00e1lky. Indicko-p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd konflikt ilustruje tento \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trend: v regionech od povod\u00ed Nilu po St\u0159edn\u00ed Asii utv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed kontrola nad \u0159ekami geopolitiku stejn\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem jako kdysi ropovody. Hydropolitika tak m\u016f\u017ee definovat konflikty 21. stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017en\u00ed Asie je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edpadem kv\u016fli jadern\u00e9mu rozm\u011bru. Kdykoli P\u00e1kist\u00e1n obvin\u00ed Indii z toho, \u017ee pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 vodu jako zbra\u0148, nejde jen o environment\u00e1ln\u00ed spor \u2013 hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se spir\u00e1lovit\u011b zvrhne ve vojenskou konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9m kontextu mohou instituce jako \u0160OS a BRICS nab\u00eddnout d\u016fv\u011bryhodnou cestu vp\u0159ed. Ob\u011b zahrnuj\u00ed Indii a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n jako \u010dleny, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed alespo\u0148 form\u00e1ln\u00ed mo\u017enost mediace. Zat\u00edmco intervence Washingtonu dosud nep\u0159inesly mnoho v\u00fdsledk\u016f, multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e1 architektura by mohla zas\u00e1hnout k deeskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed. Pokud by Dill\u00ed a Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d pokra\u010dovaly v cest\u011b sekuritizace ka\u017ed\u00e9 povodn\u011b a sucha, riskovalo by to destabilizaci Eurasie jako celku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to shrnuli, hydropolitika nen\u00ed okrajovou ot\u00e1zkou, ale \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm faktorem nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem. Zda byly ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 z\u00e1plavy v\u00fdsledkem indick\u00fdch technick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed nebo hn\u011bvu p\u0159\u00edrody, je pak t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 druho\u0159ad\u00e9. Vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 a v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed zab\u00edj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Indi\u00ed a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem roste uprost\u0159ed obvin\u011bn\u00ed ze zneu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed vody jako zbran\u00ed pot\u00e9, co…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87343,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[79,1503,129,122],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87342"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87342\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}