{"id":87148,"date":"2025-09-07T00:14:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-06T22:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87148"},"modified":"2025-09-06T13:10:25","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T11:10:25","slug":"michael-svatos-0-specialni-vyrocni-analyza-dalsi-vyvoj-valky-na-ukrajine-rusky-ofenzivni-potencial-pro-pristi-mesice-vcetne-map-dil-prvni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/07\/michael-svatos-0-specialni-vyrocni-analyza-dalsi-vyvoj-valky-na-ukrajine-rusky-ofenzivni-potencial-pro-pristi-mesice-vcetne-map-dil-prvni\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: 0 Speci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdza \u2013 Dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b \u2013 Rusk\u00fd ofenzivn\u00ed potenci\u00e1l pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce! V\u010detn\u011b map! D\u00edl Prvn\u00ed!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p>Jak u\u017e jsem nazna\u010dil v nadpisu \u2013 dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza m\u00e1 po\u0159adov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo 2400, a u anal\u00fdzy 1 na podzim 2018 mi ani n\u00e1hodou na um nep\u0159i\u0161lo, kolik jich nakonec bude odvys\u00edl\u00e1no i publikov\u00e1no. Dnes v\u0161ak s jistotou v\u00edm, \u017ee jedin\u011b V\u00e1m vd\u011b\u010d\u00edm, za mo\u017enost sepsat i tuto anal\u00fdzu 2400, a i dal\u0161\u00ed. Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza i jej\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed d\u00edly budou t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 na p\u0159edstavivost, proto\u017ee budou detailn\u011b popisovat rusk\u00fd \u00fato\u010dn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l na obrovsk\u00e9m prostoru. Pro laiky b\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u017edy t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si logiku velk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace p\u0159edstavit. Ale nezoufejte. I gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 m\u00edvaj\u00ed \u010dasto ten sam\u00fd probl\u00e9m. T\u0159eba slavn\u00fd habsbursk\u00fd poln\u00ed zbrojmistr\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cs.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ludwig_von_Benedek\">Ludwig von Benedek<\/a>\u00a0byl geni\u00e1ln\u00edm velitelem sboru, tedy velitelem, kter\u00fd vid\u011bl boji\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed sebou v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase, a mohl v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase rychlost\u00ed ordonance na koni vyd\u00e1vat okam\u017eit\u00e9 rozkazy v\u0161em sv\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 pozoroval dalekohledem. Jakmile v\u0161ak byl v roce 1866 jmenov\u00e1n velitelem sedmi sbor\u016f a je\u0161t\u011b k tomu mal\u00e9 sask\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, a byl tak odk\u00e1z\u00e1n na n\u011bkolik hodin zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e1 hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed, a dalekohled mu byl k ni\u010demu, jak bylo boji\u0161t\u011b v roce 1866 proti Prusku obrovsk\u00e9, zcela zkrachoval, a celou svoji arm\u00e1du nedok\u00e1zal organizovan\u011b \u0159\u00eddit. A proto\u017ee takov\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch poln\u00edch zbrojmistr\u016f je i mezi gener\u00e1ly absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161ina, v\u017edy se v anal\u00fdze vracejte k map\u011b, kter\u00e1 je na za\u010d\u00e1tku rozboru ka\u017ed\u00e9ho boji\u0161t\u011b, proto\u017ee jedin\u011b tak se neztrat\u00edte v z\u00e1plav\u011b dat. (Na konci dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdzy je\u0161t\u011b hork\u00e1 aktualizace ke vztahu Putin \u2013 Elv\u00edra Nabiullina.)<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20176\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 502px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-20176\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Von_Benedek3.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Von_Benedek3.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Von_Benedek3-212x300.jpg 212w\" alt=\"\" width=\"502\" height=\"711\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20176\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-20176\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Poln\u00ed zbrojmistr von Benedek.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Proto\u017ee z ne\u00fastupn\u00fdch vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed Kyjeva a jeho evropsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch tento t\u00fdden je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9\u00a0 podm\u00ednky nebudou p\u0159ijaty, v\u00e1lka bude dozajista je\u0161t\u011b pokra\u010dovat a\u017e do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e jedna ze znesv\u00e1\u0159en\u00fdch stran v\u00fdrazn\u011bji v\u00edt\u011bz\u00edc\u00ed stran\u011b ustoup\u00ed. V\u00e1lka se tedy rozhodne na boji\u0161ti, jak nazna\u010dil tento t\u00fdden v Pekingu,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kp.ru\/daily\/27748.5\/5138712\/\">a v\u010dera velmi r\u00e1zn\u011b potvrdil<\/a>,\u00a0 i Vladim\u00edr Putin. V dal\u0161\u00edch n\u011bkolika anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch se proto d\u016fkladn\u011bji pod\u00edv\u00e1me, jak se situace na ukrajinsk\u00e9m boji\u0161ti m\u016f\u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vyv\u00edjet.<\/p>\n<h3>(1) Rusk\u00fd podzimn\u00ed \u00fatok na Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Rusk\u00e1 opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina JIH \u2013 velitel gener\u00e1l San\u010dik, Hrdina Ruska za dobyt\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b nedobytn\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch pevnost\u00ed Vuhledar a Velyka Novosilka v roce 2024.<\/h3>\n<p>V\u010dera ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed zdroje potvrdily, \u017ee Rusk\u00e9 jednotky \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b 29. arm\u00e1da, opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina JIH, gener\u00e1l San\u010dik \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vchasnoua.com\/news\/vorog-vede-boyi-za-udacne-bilia-pokrovska-i-maje-prosuvannia-u-napriamku-dobropillia-situaciia-na-sxidnomu-fronti\">tento t\u00fdden na n\u011bkolika m\u00edstech p\u0159ekro\u010dily \u0159eku Vov\u010da a vstoupily do Novoselivsk\u00e9ho lesn\u00edho masivu<\/a>, kter\u00fd se rozkl\u00e1d\u00e1 v \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce 6km d\u00e9lkou asi 15 km pod\u00e9l jej\u00edho z\u00e1padn\u00edho b\u0159ehu. A pokud se Rusy z lesn\u00edho masivu nepoda\u0159\u00ed rychle vypudit, bude velk\u00e1 vesnice\u00a0<span class=\"mw-page-title-main\"><span dir=\"auto\">Velikomikhailovka, (2000 obyvatel), kter\u00e1 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed na jeho z\u00e1padn\u00edm okraji, rychle a nadobro ztracena. P\u00e1d t\u00e9to vesnice bude m\u00edt ne\u010dekan\u011b velk\u00fd dopad na celou Ukrajinskou obranu.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20164\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 1029px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-20164\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1117px) 100vw, 1117px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001.jpg 1117w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001-300x144.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001-1030x493.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001-768x368.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001-705x338.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Vorone-page-001-450x216.jpg 450w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1029\" height=\"493\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20164\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-20164\" class=\"wp-caption-text\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cel\u00fd pl\u00e1n \u00fatoku gener\u00e1la San\u010dika je podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btlen v anal\u00fdze, tato mapa slou\u017e\u00ed pouze pro prvotn\u00ed vizualizaci. Zelen\u00fd hexagon = Novoselivsk\u00fd lesn\u00ed masiv a vesnice\u00a0<span class=\"mw-page-title-main\"><span dir=\"auto\">Velkomikhailovka. Spodn\u00ed \u017elut\u00fd hexagon = m\u011bsto Kurachove. \u010cern\u00e1 \u0161ipka = vzd\u00e1lenost 60km, tu Rusov\u00e9 urazili od 2. \u0159\u00edjna 2024. Oran\u017eov\u00e1 linie = fronta. Oran\u017eov\u00fd hexagon = aglomerace Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad. Oran\u017eov\u00fd koso\u010dtverec = ukrajinsk\u00fd logistick\u00fd uzel Pokrovske, po obsazen\u00ed Novoselivsk\u00e9ho lesa bude eliminov\u00e1n rusk\u00fdmi drony a ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed tepny (b\u00edl\u00e9 \u0161ipky), kter\u00e9 z n\u011bj vedou d\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod a na jih budou uzav\u0159eny. B\u00edl\u00e1 \u0161ipka vedouc\u00ed z v\u00fdchodu na z\u00e1pad = rusk\u00e1 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed tepna d\u00e1lnice N-15 pod\u00e9l n\u00ed\u017e Rusov\u00e9 postupuj\u00ed. Oran\u017eov\u00e1 elipsa na lev\u00e9m okraji mapy = p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00ed Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Vzd\u00e1lenost Kurachove v\u00fdchodn\u00ed b\u0159eh Dn\u011bpru v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed = 160km. \u010cerven\u00e1 \u0161ipka = 29. arm\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 v\u010dera p\u0159e\u0161la \u0159eku Vov\u010da. Ji\u017en\u011b od n\u00ed a\u017e k m\u011bstu Huljajpole se k \u00fatoku sm\u011brem na Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, po t\u00e9 a\u017e drony 29. arm\u00e1dy vypou\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 z Novoselivsk\u00e9ho lesa vy\u0159ad\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed po trase Pokrovske-Huljajpole, p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed 36., 5., a 35. rusk\u00e1 v\u0161evojskov\u00e1 arm\u00e1da, se\u0159azeny od 29. arm\u00e1dy postupn\u011b sm\u011brem na jih. Celkem tedy \u00fatok povedou 4 arm\u00e1dy, to p\u0159edstavuje nejm\u00e9n\u011b 9 a\u017e 10 diviz\u00ed, plus 2 a\u017e 3 brig\u00e1dy, a celkem okolo 150 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f, na \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce pouh\u00fdch cca 60km!\u00a0 Ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou zna\u010dn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed, z\u0159ejm\u011b jen okolo 60 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f z p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b pod\u0159adn\u00fdch a druho\u0159ad\u00fdch brig\u00e1d, dopl\u0148ovan\u00fdch n\u00e1silnou mobilizac\u00ed. Kyjev tak m\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zad\u011bl\u00e1no na velk\u00fd pr\u016fser.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"mw-page-title-main\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pro\u010d si Ukrajinci v\u010dera tak zt\u011b\u017eovali,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vchasnoua.com\/news\/vorog-vede-boyi-za-udacne-bilia-pokrovska-i-maje-prosuvannia-u-napriamku-dobropillia-situaciia-na-sxidnomu-fronti\">\u017ee Rusov\u00e9 u\u017e vstoupili do lesn\u00edho masivu za \u0159ekou Vov\u010da<\/a>, je z\u0159ejm\u00e9 z historie II. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Sov\u011btsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v t\u011bchto m\u00edstech p\u0159e\u0161la \u0159eku Vov\u010da 9. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1943, a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 velen\u00ed sice do vesnice\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%92%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%85%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%B0_(%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BE%D0%BD)#cite_note-4\">Velkomikhailovka<\/a>\u00a0okam\u017eit\u011b nakomandovalo v\u0161echny dostupn\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, aby Sov\u011bty z lesa vyhnaly, ale Sov\u011bti je z lesn\u00edho masivu snadno rozst\u0159\u00edleli, a\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20160304185355\/http:\/\/pokrlib.at.ua\/news\/do_70_richchja_vizvolennja_pokrovshhini\/2013-09-12-63\">celou vesnici pak jedin\u00fdm \u00fatokem veden\u00fdm dv\u011bma st\u0159eleck\u00fdmi pluky bez tank\u016f 14. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1943 osvobodili<\/a>, a z n\u00ed pak rychle postupovali sm\u011brem na z\u00e1pad, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B6%D1%8C%D0%B5#%D0%92%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0\">u\u017e 14. \u0159\u00edjna 1943 osvobodili tu \u010d\u00e1st m\u011bsta Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed<\/a>, kter\u00e1 se rozkl\u00e1d\u00e1 na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu \u0159eky Dn\u011bpr. Vesnice Velkomikhailovka je d\u00edky velk\u00e9mu lesn\u00edmu masivu, a klikat\u00e9mu korytu \u0159eky Vov\u010da, pova\u017eov\u00e1na za posledn\u00ed p\u0159irozenou obrannou linii p\u0159ed Dn\u011bprem, a pokud Rusov\u00e9 les vy\u010dist\u00ed a udr\u017e\u00ed, maj\u00ed v podstat\u011b volnou cestu na Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00fd rusk\u00fd postup proti vesnici Velkomikhailovka\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-2129-ukrajinci-kteri-dostali-rozkaz-do-posledniho-muze-branit-pevnost-kurachove-vcera-radeji-rychle-prchli-video-z-hrdinske-akce-ruskych-tankistu-u-linie-dracich-zubu-general-sancik-uz-dostal\/\">za\u010dal 2. \u0159\u00edjna 2024, kdy Rusov\u00e9 zah\u00e1jili p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 boje o ukrajinskou pevnost Kurachove<\/a>. Vzd\u00e1lenost od Kurachove a\u017e k lesn\u00edmu masivu za \u0159ekou Vov\u010da p\u0159ed vesnic\u00ed Velkomikhailovka, kam v\u010dera 5. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025 dorazili,\u00a0 je 60km, a Rusov\u00e9 se p\u0159i n\u00ed pohybuj\u00ed soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s d\u00e1lnic\u00ed N-15, kter\u00e1 vede tak\u0159ka jako p\u0159\u00edmka ta\u017een\u00e1 rovn\u011b na z\u00e1pad z m\u011bsta Don\u011bck do m\u011bsta Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Vzd\u00e1lenost z Kurachove a\u017e k b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed je celkem 150 km.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-85920 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/pozvaniV-300x140.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"846\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/pozvaniV-300x140.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/pozvaniV-768x360.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/pozvaniV.jpg 925w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jakmile se Rusov\u00e9 v Novoselivsk\u00e9m lesn\u00edm masivu pevn\u011b usad\u00ed, jejich drony na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech p\u0159eru\u0161\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed do velk\u00e9 pevnosti Hulajpole, kter\u00e9 je vedeno po jedin\u00e9 cest\u011b vinouc\u00ed se na jih z m\u011bsta\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B5_(%D0%94%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C)\">Pokrovskoe<\/a>, (pozor jin\u00e9 m\u011bsto ne\u017e nyn\u00ed obl\u00e9han\u00e1 aglomerace Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, ta je 75 km sm\u011brem severov\u00fdchod). M\u011bsto Pokrovskoe, (10 000 obyvatel), le\u017e\u00ed 16km z\u00e1padn\u011b od lesn\u00edho masivu Novoselivka, a bude rovn\u011b\u017e rusk\u00fdmi drony zbaveno sv\u00e9ho ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho v\u00fdznamu. Rusov\u00e9 tak, jakmile se usad\u00ed v Novoselivsk\u00e9m lese, zcela eliminuj\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed na \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce fronty dr\u017een\u00e9 \u010delem na v\u00fdchod o d\u00e9lce 50km z Pokrovske do Huljajpole, a na \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce fronty dr\u017een\u00e9 sm\u011brem na jih o d\u00e9lce 25km z\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%93%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B9%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B5\">Huljajpole<\/a>\u00a0(16 000 obyvatel) do m\u011bsta\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B2_(%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4)\">Orichiv<\/a>\u00a0(15 000 obyvatel).<\/p>\n<p>Cel\u00fd sou\u010dasn\u00fd rusk\u00fd \u00fato\u010dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n, jak srazit v n\u011bkolika p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch ukrajinskou obranu a\u017e k m\u011bstu Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru, nese v\u00fdrazn\u00fd rukopis velitele \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny JIH gener\u00e1la San\u010dika. Ten stejn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem \u2013 pozvoln\u00fdm obkli\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm a hlavn\u011b izolac\u00ed v\u0161ech logistick\u00fdch tepen Ukrajinc\u016f vedouc\u00edch do jejich mohutn\u00fdch nedobytn\u00fdch pevnost\u00ed \u2013 takto v zim\u011b 2024\/25 (!) velmi snadno a rychle a tak\u0159ka bez boj\u016f obsadil m\u011bsta p\u0159em\u011bn\u011bn\u00e1 v pevnosti Vuhledar a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%92%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%9D%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%91%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B0\">Velyka Novosilka<\/a>, a po jejich kapitulaci celkem snadno a rychle postoupil o p\u00e1r m\u00e1lo des\u00edtek kilometr\u016f na z\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_20179\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 1054px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-20179\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322-300x237.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322-1030x814.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322-768x607.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322-705x557.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-06_03-56-3322-450x355.jpg 450w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1054\" height=\"832\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20179\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-20179\" class=\"wp-caption-text\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Na t\u00e9to map\u011b vid\u00edte z\u00e1mysl rusk\u00e9 podzimn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy skupiny JIH gener\u00e1la San\u010dika. 29. arm\u00e1da = \u010derven\u00e1 \u0161ipka. 36., 5. a 36. arm\u00e1da budou postupovat, aby p\u0159e\u0165aly ukrajinsk\u00e9 komunikace do m\u011bsto Huljajpole, a dal\u0161\u00ed jedna arm\u00e1da skupiny V\u00ddCHOD bude postupovat z jihu na sever, aby Huljajpole uzav\u0159ela od z\u00e1padu. Rusov\u00e9 tak hodlaj\u00ed osvobodit prostor o rozloze 50x60km = 3000km \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch, a p\u0159itisknout frontu k Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed na vzd\u00e1lenost 50 km z v\u00fdchodu. U\u017e p\u016flroku p\u0159itom stoj\u00ed na Dn\u011bpru pouh\u00fdch 25km ji\u017en\u011b od Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed. Vzhledem k rychlosti pr\u016fb\u011bhu lo\u0148sk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy skupiny JIH, by rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u011bla sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle dos\u00e1hnout n\u011bkdy v lednu 2025. Na mapu jsem domaloval i malou zelenou \u0161ipku \u2013 ta ukazuje, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 skupina ST\u0158ED v\u010dera odrazila ukrajinsk\u00fd proti\u00fatok, a za\u010dala op\u011bt postupovat na sever. Ukrajinci v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b disponuj\u00ed pouze silami, aby dr\u017eeli frontu pouze proti \u00fatoku jedn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny. Jakmile se proti\u00fatokem pokusili likvidovat pr\u016flom skupiny ST\u0158ED na sever, \u017elut\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed pod zelenou \u0161ipkou, Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159ekro\u010dili \u0159eku Vov\u010da, (skupina JIH 29. arm\u00e1da), a vpadli do Kupjanska, (opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina Z\u00e1pad gener\u00e1la Kuzovleva). Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159i lo\u0148sk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edv\u011b postupovali nejv\u00edce \u00fazem\u00ed od listopadu a\u017e do ledna, a letos pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed podobn\u011b. Rusov\u00e9 byli zat\u00edm schopni \u00fato\u010dit maxim\u00e1ln\u011b na dv\u011bma opera\u010dn\u00edmi skupinami z\u00e1rove\u0148. Zd\u00e1 se tedy, \u017ee \u00fato\u010dit budou skupiny ST\u0158ED a JIH.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_20182\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 1039px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-20182\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2505px) 100vw, 2505px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07.jpg 2505w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-300x213.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-1030x732.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-768x546.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-1536x1091.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-2048x1455.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-1500x1066.jpg 1500w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-260x185.jpg 260w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-705x501.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/photo_2025-09-05_21-42-07-450x320.jpg 450w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1039\" height=\"738\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20182\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-20182\" class=\"wp-caption-text\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Na t\u00e9to v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed ve\u010dern\u00ed rusk\u00e9 map\u011b vid\u00edte detailn\u011b, \u017ee dva dny po p\u0159esunu posil k 51. arm\u00e1d\u011b, viz p\u0159edchoz\u00ed mapa a zelen\u00e1 \u0161ipka v n\u00ed, se Rusov\u00e9 op\u011bt dali do pohybu na Sever. A to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 protiofenz\u00edva se u\u017e vy\u010derpala, a rusk\u00e9 jednotky se nyn\u00ed u\u017e op\u011bt \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b spojuj\u00ed s rusk\u00fdmi diverzn\u00edmi jednotkami, kter\u00e9 byly ukrajinskou protiofenz\u00edvou na t\u0159i dny obkl\u00ed\u010deny. Sou\u010dasn\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 jednotka st\u00e1le pevn\u011bji sv\u00edraj\u00ed aglomeraci Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad. \u00dato\u010dn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti skupiny ST\u0158ED pop\u00ed\u0161e z\u00edt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdza.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_20189\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 1022px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-20189\" src=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2-1030x620.jpg 1030w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2-768x462.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2-705x424.jpg 705w, https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/dc41d505ec_photo_2025-09-05_13-23-07-2-450x271.jpg 450w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1022\" height=\"615\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20189\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-20189\" class=\"wp-caption-text\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">V\u010dera Rusov\u00e9, gener\u00e1l Kuzovlev, skupina Z\u00c1PAD,<a href=\"https:\/\/topwar.ru\/270527-fpv-drony-vs-rf-uzhe-porazhajut-tehniku-protivnika-na-trasse-izjum-slavjansk.html\">\u00a0postoupili i severn\u011b od Slovjanska, a dostali tak podhled sv\u00fdch dron\u016f ukrajinskou hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed komunikaci do m\u011bsta<\/a>. \u010cern\u00e1 \u0161ipka. Vzd\u00e1lenost pro drony je nyn\u00ed 24km, a to Rus\u016fm sta\u010d\u00ed. Pomocn\u00e1 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed komunikace (oran\u017eov\u00e1 \u0161ipka) je u\u017e pod dost\u0159elem dron\u016f 51. arm\u00e1dy skupiny ST\u0158ED. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho podzimu tak u\u017e Rusov\u00e9 maj\u00ed v\u0161echny logistick\u00e9 komunikace do velk\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch pevnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 hodlaj\u00ed \u201cosvobodit\u201d \u2013 m\u011bsta Konstantinivka, Slovjansk, Pokrovsk a Huljajpole pod dost\u0159elem sv\u00fdch dron\u016f na optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech. Lo\u0148sk\u00e9 zku\u0161enosti uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee Ukrajinci takov\u00e9to drony obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00e9 pevnosti dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed br\u00e1nit pouze 3-4 m\u011bs\u00edce. Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee si je Putin tak jist\u00fd rusk\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Z\u00e1v\u011br, kter\u00fd budeme v dal\u0161\u00edch anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch d\u00e1le potvrzovat = Rusk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha na boji\u0161ti se stup\u0148uje. A Putin je proto sebev\u011bdom\u00fd, a bude s ur\u010ditost\u00ed\u00a0 zvy\u0161ovat sv\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 po\u017eadavky.<\/p>\n<h4>(2) Aktualizace k anal\u00fdz\u00e1m o Elv\u00ed\u0159e Nabiullin\u011b.<\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kp.ru\/daily\/27748.5\/5138712\/\">V\u010dera Vladim\u00edr Putin za p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti hlavn\u00edho kritika Elv\u00edry Nabiulliny \u0161\u00e9fa Sberbank Germana Grefa r\u00e1zn\u011b utnul v\u0161echny spekulace<\/a>, \u017ee by se skupin\u011b vlivn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f a kritik\u016f Nabiulliny mohlo poda\u0159it prosadit rychlej\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a zm\u011bnu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky. Kritici tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika kv\u016fli politice vysok\u00fdch sazeb Nabiullinov\u00e9 stagnuje. Putin ve\u0159ejn\u011b r\u00e1zn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost ochran\u011b oby\u010dejn\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f Ruska p\u0159ed inflac\u00ed, kterou prov\u00e1d\u00ed Nabiullina pomoc\u00ed vysok\u00fdch sazeb z\u00e1kladn\u00edch \u00farok\u016f, p\u0159ed ochranou zisk\u016f bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f a pr\u016fmysln\u00edk\u016f, kter\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby plundruj\u00ed. Podle Putina bude \u00fastup od vysok\u00fdch sazeb delik\u00e1tn\u00ed operac\u00ed, a n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010das potrv\u00e1, ale \u00faroky budou st\u00e1le klesat.\u00a0Gref je obecn\u011b, a\u010dkoli je nyn\u00ed sankcionov\u00e1n EU,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20160815154736\/http:\/\/www.rosbalt.ru\/main\/2002\/02\/14\/35901.html\">pova\u017eov\u00e1n za liber\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonoma a hlavn\u011b za star\u00e9ho oddan\u00e9ho stoupence globalizace Ruska<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed anal\u00fdza 2400 je za mnou, tak snad st\u00e1la aspo\u0148 trochu za to. Na jedn\u00e9 anal\u00fdze str\u00e1v\u00edm p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 14 hodin \u010dasu, tak si to pro zaj\u00edmavost vyn\u00e1sobte, a d\u011bkuji za pochopen\u00ed, \u017ee b\u00fdv\u00e1m ob\u010das v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b tro\u0161ku unaven. P.S.na maily odpov\u00edm a\u017e se vysp\u00edm, zat\u00edm nebyl \u010das.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michalapetr.com\/map-2400-specialni-vyrocni-analyza-dalsi-vyvoj-valky-na-ukrajine-rusky-ofenzivni-potencial-pro-pristi-mesice-vcetne-map-dil-prvni\/\">Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-27204\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos.png 180w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/Michael_Svatos-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-86927 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-212x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"837\" height=\"1184\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-212x300.png 212w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-724x1024.png 724w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-768x1086.png 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-1086x1536.png 1086w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-1448x2048.png 1448w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/letak-volby-2025-konference-3-1024x1448.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 837px) 100vw, 837px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jak u\u017e jsem nazna\u010dil v nadpisu \u2013 dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza m\u00e1 po\u0159adov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo 2400, a u&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60036,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87148"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87148\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}