{"id":87129,"date":"2025-09-06T00:24:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T22:24:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=87129"},"modified":"2025-09-05T16:17:14","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T14:17:14","slug":"pierre-duval-francie-skryva-ekonomicky-pokles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/09\/06\/pierre-duval-francie-skryva-ekonomicky-pokles\/","title":{"rendered":"Pierre Duval: Francie skr\u00fdv\u00e1 ekonomick\u00fd pokles"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Francie skr\u00fdv\u00e1 sv\u016fj ekonomick\u00fd pokles za ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi statistikami. Francouzsk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh dosahuje 113 % HDP a deficit je n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 6 %. Francouzsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed mus\u00ed budovat d\u016fv\u011bru, p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost a udr\u017eitelnost uvoln\u011bn\u00edm nap\u011bt\u00ed, zachov\u00e1n\u00edm cenov\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed stability, obnoven\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u00edho man\u00e9vrovac\u00edho prostoru a proveden\u00edm nezbytn\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch reforem. Francie se spolu se sv\u00fdmi ob\u010dany propad\u00e1 jak historick\u00e9, tak glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Finan\u010dn\u00ed represe a dramatick\u00fd negativn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ve Francii. \u201eFrancie je v hor\u0161\u00ed situaci, ne\u017e ukazuj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>p\u00ed\u0161e v titulku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0n\u011bmeck\u00fd obchodn\u00ed a finan\u010dn\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed port\u00e1l \u00a0Handelsblatt\u00a0 . \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Proto\u017ee<\/span><\/em>\u00a0ti, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou u moci [ve Francii], nejsou schopni skute\u010dn\u00fdch reforem, uch\u00fdl\u00ed se ke star\u00e9mu n\u00e1stroji: finan\u010dn\u00ed represi,\u201c varuje n\u011bmeck\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed den\u00edk a dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eTo, co dnes za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e, ohro\u017euje Berl\u00edn z\u00edtra.\u201c\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00fdvoj je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b dramatick\u00fd u na\u0161eho francouzsk\u00e9ho souseda. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed 15 lety byla \u00farove\u0148 zadlu\u017een\u00ed zem\u011b stejn\u011b vysok\u00e1 jako v N\u011bmecku. Dnes dosahuje st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh 113 % HDP a deficit n\u011bco m\u00e1lo p\u0159es 6 %,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed se v n\u011bm. Ekonomov\u00e9 MMF varuj\u00ed, pokra\u010duj\u00ed m\u00e9dia se s\u00eddlem v D\u00fcsseldorfu: \u201eTrend sm\u011brem k ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu dluhu se stal nezvratn\u00fdm, proto\u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 slab\u00fd a v\u016fle sni\u017eovat n\u00e1klady je celosv\u011btov\u011b slab\u00e1. Deficity ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch rozpo\u010dt\u016f dos\u00e1hnou v roce 2025 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 5,1 % HDP a budou v tom pokra\u010dovat je\u0161t\u011b l\u00e9ta.\u201c Aktivn\u00ed r\u016fst glob\u00e1ln\u00edho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu by mohl v\u00e9st ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi. Pro Francii, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed katastrofu skr\u00fdt za obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u0161patn\u00fdmi ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi statistikami, jsou v\u0161echny sign\u00e1ly varovn\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt \u010del\u00ed nov\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 krizi. Podle nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu (MMF)\u00a0<\/span>dos\u00e1hne<\/span><\/a>\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh \u00a0do roku 2025 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 95 % glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu a bude d\u00e1le r\u016fst. Do roku 2030 by se toto \u010d\u00edslo mohlo p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit 100 %. \u201eJe zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee americk\u00fd dolar d\u00e1le oslabil, a to navzdory o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee cla a prohlubuj\u00edc\u00ed se rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 deficity povedou k jeho pos\u00edlen\u00ed.\u201c \u201eImplicitn\u00ed trajektorie kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb v rozvinut\u00fdch zem\u00edch stagnuj\u00ed, zat\u00edmco trvale slab\u00fd dolar poskytuje rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edm se a rozvojov\u00fdm zem\u00edm ur\u010dit\u00fd m\u011bnov\u00fd man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 MMF a srovn\u00e1v\u00e1 katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci ve Francii a dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch EU s rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmi se zem\u011bmi: \u201eV rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se a rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst ve v\u00fd\u0161i 4,1 % v roce 2025 a 4,0 % v roce 2026.\u201c \u201eR\u016fst \u010c\u00edny pro rok 2025 byl oproti dubnov\u00fdm projekc\u00edm revidov\u00e1n sm\u011brem nahoru (o 0,8 procentn\u00edho bodu) na 4,8 %,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed se jako p\u0159\u00edklad a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje se \u0161kodliv\u00fd stav Francie. Dokonce i Rusko, jeho\u017e ekonomick\u00fd kolaps si p\u0159eje Francie prezidenta Macrona, si podle MMF vede mnohem l\u00e9pe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eAle to je jen \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu. Ve skute\u010dnosti je situace Francie je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistiky. Skryt\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na d\u016fchody jsou rozlo\u017eeny mezi v\u0161echna ministerstva, tak\u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u00fddaje na vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se na pap\u00ed\u0159e jev\u00ed jako vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, zat\u00edmco ve skute\u010dnosti se za nimi skr\u00fdvaj\u00ed miliardy dolar\u016f ve form\u011b skryt\u00fdch d\u016fchod\u016f,\u201c\u00a0 pokra\u010duje\u00a0<\/span>Handelsblatt\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a uv\u00e1d\u00ed: \u201ePodle studie Institutu pro ve\u0159ejnou politiku (IPP) se ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u011b utrat\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 18 miliard eur na platy st\u00e1tn\u00edch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f, zat\u00edmco ve skute\u010dnosti se neutr\u00e1c\u00ed na platy, ale na starobn\u00ed d\u016fchody.\u201c\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTo vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 dojem, \u017ee n\u00e1klady na francouzsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka jsou mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, i kdy\u017e je \u010d\u00e1st vy\u010dlen\u011bna na d\u016fchodov\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty. Nav\u00edc to nafukuje celkov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje ministerstev, zat\u00edmco zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st je pou\u017eita na jin\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely, ne\u017e na ty, kter\u00e9 jsou konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ur\u010deny \u2013 na d\u016fchody pro vyslou\u017eil\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed nebo obrann\u00e9 projekty,\u201c pokra\u010duje den\u00edk. \u201eTento zkreslen\u00fd obraz ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u011b sni\u017euje ochotu k drastick\u00fdm \u0161krt\u016fm. Na druhou stranu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed investo\u0159i \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b japonsk\u00fdch v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e l\u00e9ta mezi hlavn\u00ed kupce francouzsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f \u2013 riskuj\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu d\u016fv\u011bry.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e8. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se zhrout\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed vl\u00e1da za pouh\u00fdch dvan\u00e1ct m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, proto\u017ee se j\u00ed nepoda\u0159ilo naj\u00edt konsolida\u010dn\u00ed strategii, kter\u00e1 by j\u00ed umo\u017enila z\u00edskat v\u011bt\u0161inu. Politick\u00e1 polarizace a neochota k reform\u00e1m paralyzuj\u00ed zemi,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Handelsblatt.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Francie se spolu se zbytkem Z\u00e1padu nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve slep\u00e9 uli\u010dce. Macron a jeho vl\u00e1da uvrhli zemi do nejhor\u0161\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 katastrofy od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky t\u00edm, \u017ee uvrhli osud francouzsk\u00e9ho lidu do ukrajinsk\u00e9 pasti. A p\u0159esto Macron navzdory v\u0161emu pokra\u010duje ve sv\u00e9 politice vojensk\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory Ukrajiny.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eCelkov\u011b je v\u00fdhled nad\u00e1le vystaven rizik\u016fm poklesu,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 MMF.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pierre Duval<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Francie skr\u00fdv\u00e1 sv\u016fj ekonomick\u00fd pokles za ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi statistikami. Francouzsk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh dosahuje 113 % HDP…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":87130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,45,130,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87129"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87129"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87129\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}