{"id":86650,"date":"2025-08-29T04:11:30","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T02:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=86650"},"modified":"2025-08-29T04:11:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T02:11:30","slug":"andrew-korybko-takhle-by-mohly-vypadat-bezpecnostni-zaruky-usa-pro-ukrajinu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/29\/andrew-korybko-takhle-by-mohly-vypadat-bezpecnostni-zaruky-usa-pro-ukrajinu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Takhle by mohly vypadat bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky USA pro Ukrajinu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump pokou\u0161\u00ed \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed s Putinem, kter\u00fd je otev\u0159en\u00fd kompromis\u016fm, ne \u00fastupk\u016fm, nato\u017e t\u011bm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm v oblasti bezpe\u010dnosti. Pokud se tento p\u0159\u00edstup nezm\u011bn\u00ed, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 eskalace.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro Ukrajinu jsou jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 oddaluj\u00ed politick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu\u00a0<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Rusko zah\u00e1jilo svou\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operaci\u00a0<\/a>(SMO) p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v reakci na hrozby vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ze strany NATO z Ukrajiny. Bylo by proto pro Rusko v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm \u00fastupkem souhlasit s t\u00edm, \u017ee ur\u010dit\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 t\u011bchto hrozeb, mo\u017en\u00e1 i v intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch form\u00e1ch ne\u017e p\u0159ed SMO, p\u0159etrv\u00e1 i po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu. Jak se v\u0161ak ukazuje, p\u0159esn\u011b to si Trump podle sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed a ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v p\u0159edstavuje:<\/span><\/p>\n

* 18. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Ukrajina nab\u00edz\u00ed Trumpovi zbrojn\u00ed kontrakt v hodnot\u011b 100 miliard dolar\u016f, aby z\u00edskal bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 23. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Pentagon ti\u0161e zablokoval ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky raketami dlouh\u00e9ho doletu na Rusko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 25. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee USA p\u0159estaly financovat Ukrajinu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 25. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>USA nebudou hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli v bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk\u00e1ch Ukrajiny \u2013 Trump\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 26. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>USA nab\u00edzej\u00ed leteckou a zpravodajskou podporu pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm sil\u00e1m na Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed poznatky jsou n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: 1) Ukrajina chce, aby Trump pokra\u010doval ve sv\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00e9 politice\u00a0<\/span><\/a>nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm prodeje nov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed NATO; 2) a\u010dkoli USA ji\u017e Ukrajin\u011b nedovoluj\u00ed \u00fato\u010dit na v\u0161eobecn\u011b uznan\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, 3 350 leteck\u00fdch raket s prodlou\u017een\u00fdm doletem bylo v souladu s v\u00fd\u0161e uvedenou politikou schv\u00e1leno; 3) tyto dohody p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed jeho nov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke konfliktu; 4) zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 se hloub\u011bji anga\u017eovat; ale 5) USA by st\u00e1le mohly pom\u00e1hat sil\u00e1m EU na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho pohledu, kter\u00fd se spekulativn\u011b nemus\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017eet jeho skute\u010dn\u00fd pohled za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi: 1) pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsun zbran\u00ed NATO na Ukrajinu je nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd; 2) je to je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, pokud se jedn\u00e1 o modern\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b (Javeliny a Stingery z doby p\u0159ed SMO byly u\u017e tak dost \u0161patn\u00e9); 3) Trumpova hrdost na svou novou politiku \u010din\u00ed nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm, \u017ee by zm\u011bnil kurz; 4) je v\u0161ak chv\u00e1lyhodn\u00e9, \u017ee se nechce hloub\u011bji anga\u017eovat; ale 5) jak\u00e9koli z\u00e1padn\u00ed s\u00edly na Ukrajin\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jablky sv\u00e1ru jsou tedy pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsun modern\u00edch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu a flirtov\u00e1n\u00ed USA s podporou vojsk EU v t\u00e9to oblasti, kter\u00e1 by se podle d\u0159\u00edve citovan\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy mohla nasadit v ur\u010dit\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti od fronty za ukrajinsk\u00fdmi jednotkami vycvi\u010den\u00fdmi NATO a m\u00edrov\u00fdmi silami neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch zem\u00ed. Americk\u00e1 podpora by \u00fadajn\u011b mohla m\u00edt podobu zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, sledov\u00e1n\u00ed a pr\u016fzkumu; velen\u00ed a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed; v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany; a letadel, logistiky a radaru podporuj\u00edc\u00edch bezletovou z\u00f3nu vynucovanou EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by zintenzivnil hrozby vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z NATO ze strany Ukrajiny. Byla by to siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed protivn\u00edk ne\u017e v \u00e9\u0159e p\u0159ed SMO a tentokr\u00e1t by m\u011bla p\u0159\u00edmou podporu vojsk n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00ed NATO na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, i kdy\u017e by jim USA ofici\u00e1ln\u011b neposkytovaly ochranu podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5. Riziko vypuknut\u00ed ostr\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a Ruskem, a\u0165 u\u017e z \u00famyslu bloku, nebo manipulac\u00ed Ukrajiny do n\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm budouc\u00edch provokac\u00ed, by tak bylo bezprecedentn\u011b vysok\u00e9 a z\u016fst\u00e1valo by trvalou hrozbou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko by proto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b s t\u00edm nesouhlasilo, i kdyby Z\u00e1pad donutil Ukrajinu k odstoupen\u00ed od v\u0161ech sporn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed, co\u017e je v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, proto\u017ee by to znamenalo, \u017ee hrozby vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z NATO na Ukrajin\u011b by byly mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed SMO. Rusko by nanejv\u00fd\u0161 mohlo souhlasit s p\u0159\u00edlivem modern\u00edch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu a mo\u017en\u00e1 i se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi vojsky z\u00e1padn\u011b od Dn\u011bpru, ale pouze pokud bude v\u0161e v\u00fdchodn\u011b od \u0159eky demilitarizov\u00e1no a USA v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 s\u00edly v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1vrh na demilitarizaci byl poprv\u00e9 p\u0159edlo\u017een v lednu\u00a0<\/span>a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>znamenal by tak\u00e9, \u017ee by tento \u201eZadn\u011bpropsk\u00fd\u201c region (TDR) byl kontrolov\u00e1n nez\u00e1padn\u00edmi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi silami s pouze symbolickou ukrajinskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed, jako jsou m\u00edstn\u00ed policejn\u00ed s\u00edly. Toto uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed je v souladu s duchem toho, co se nyn\u00ed zva\u017euje podle d\u0159\u00edve citovan\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, pokud jde o m\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch zem\u00ed hl\u00eddkuj\u00edc\u00ed na front\u011b, ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky vycvi\u010den\u00e9 NATO za nimi a z\u00e1padn\u00ed jednotky v ur\u010dit\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti za nimi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozd\u00edly v\u0161ak spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00ed v tom, \u017ee bezletov\u00e1 z\u00f3na by nebyla demilitarizov\u00e1na kv\u016fli p\u0159\u00edtomnosti ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojsk vycvi\u010den\u00fdch NATO a EU by vynucovala bezletovou z\u00f3nu, a\u0165 u\u017e nad celou Ukrajinou, nebo jen z\u00e1padn\u011b od Dn\u011bpru. Rusko by mohlo v Dn\u011bpru p\u0159ijmout ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky vycvi\u010den\u00e9 NATO, pokud Kyjev postoup\u00ed v\u0161echny sporn\u00e9 oblasti, ale bezletov\u00e1 z\u00f3na tam by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstala nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1. V\u00fdrazn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu americk\u00fdch sil v Evrop\u011b by v\u0161ak mohlo pro Rusko u\u010dinit z\u00f3nu z\u00e1padn\u011b od Dn\u011bpru p\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Trump\u016fv z\u00e1jem o pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v jeho nov\u00e9 politice nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm NATO a dokonce i o pomoc n\u011bkter\u00fdm sil\u00e1m bloku na Ukrajin\u011b by teoreticky mohl b\u00fdt schv\u00e1len Ruskem jako sou\u010d\u00e1st politick\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, ale pouze za velmi specifick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek. T\u011bmito podm\u00ednkami jsou \u00fazemn\u00ed postoupen\u00ed a demilitarizovan\u00e1 bezletov\u00e1 z\u00f3na ovl\u00e1dan\u00e1 nez\u00e1padn\u00edmi m\u00edrov\u00fdmi silami, zat\u00edmco bezletov\u00e1 z\u00f3na z\u00e1padn\u011b od \u0159eky vynucovan\u00e1 EU by mohla \u2013 ve velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, na kter\u00e9m by byla dohodnuta \u2013 vy\u017eadovat v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu americk\u00fdch sil v Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je ale v tom, \u017ee Trump po ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m summitu B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu o bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk\u00e1ch se Zelensk\u00fdm a hrstkou evropsk\u00fdch l\u00eddr\u016f vyost\u0159il svou r\u00e9toriku proti Rusku. To zahrnuje i\u00a0<\/span>hypotetick\u00e9 kritizov\u00e1n\u00ed Bidena\u00a0<\/span><\/a>za to, \u017ee neschv\u00e1lil ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky uvnit\u0159 v\u0161eobecn\u011b uznan\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed Ruska, a\u00a0<\/span>hrozbu ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>s Ruskem, pokud Putin nedos\u00e1hne kompromisu. Trump by se tak mohl pokusit u\u010dinit z Putinov\u00e9ho nejhor\u0161\u00edho mo\u017en\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e hotovou v\u011bc, jak je vysv\u011btleno v t\u00e9to analytick\u00e9 s\u00e9rii:<\/span><\/p>\n

* 16. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Co br\u00e1n\u00ed velk\u00e9mu kompromisu ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny?\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 21. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Kter\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky pro Ukrajinu by mohly b\u00fdt pro Putina p\u0159ijateln\u00e9?\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

* 22. srpna: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>P\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 intervence NATO na Ukrajin\u011b by se brzy mohla nebezpe\u010dn\u011b prom\u011bnit v hotovou v\u011bc\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

EU, Zelenskyj a ameri\u010dt\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00ed \u0161tv\u00e1\u010di\u00a0<\/span>jako Lindsey Graham\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by rad\u011bji vid\u011bli, jak Trump bu\u010f klade na Putina nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 po\u017eadavky, kter\u00e9 sabotuj\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fd proces, je\u017e pak mohou b\u00fdt zneu\u017eity k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed eskalace Z\u00e1padu, nebo ho nebezpe\u010dn\u011b donut\u00ed k tomuto fait accompli. Soud\u011b dle Trumpov\u00fdch dosavadn\u00edch slov a ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v pokou\u0161\u00ed \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed s Putinem, kter\u00fd je otev\u0159en\u00fd kompromis\u016fm, ne \u00fastupk\u016fm, nato\u017e v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm. Pokud se tento p\u0159\u00edstup nezm\u011bn\u00ed, pak se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 eskalace.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump pokou\u0161\u00ed \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed s Putinem, kter\u00fd je otev\u0159en\u00fd kompromis\u016fm, ne \u00fastupk\u016fm, nato\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":86652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,26,37,5560],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86650"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}