{"id":86184,"date":"2025-08-23T00:30:48","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T22:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=86184"},"modified":"2025-08-22T16:58:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:58:35","slug":"lucas-leiroz-ukrajina-rozsiruje-ustupky-ale-mir-je-stale-daleko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/23\/lucas-leiroz-ukrajina-rozsiruje-ustupky-ale-mir-je-stale-daleko\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Ukrajina roz\u0161i\u0159uje \u00fastupky, ale m\u00edr je st\u00e1le daleko"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 re\u017eimu ji\u017e p\u0159ipustili, \u017ee zem\u011b bude muset postoupit \u00fazem\u00ed a nevstoup\u00ed do NATO.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee zoufalstv\u00ed kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu je tak velk\u00e9, \u017ee \u00fa\u0159ady ji\u017e hovo\u0159\u00ed o zmrazen\u00ed frontov\u00e9 linie a upou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed od r\u00e9toriky o \u00fapln\u00e9m navr\u00e1cen\u00ed ztracen\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed. Zmrazen\u00ed v\u0161ak nen\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu Rusk\u00e9 federace, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v rusk\u00fdch \u00fastavn\u00edch regionech jsou st\u00e1le ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span>rozhovoru<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro italsk\u00e9 noviny La Repubblica uvedl poradce ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Michail Podoljak, \u017ee jedn\u00edm z mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu s Ruskem by bylo zmrazen\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdch frontov\u00fdch lini\u00ed. Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed nyn\u00ed, s respektov\u00e1n\u00edm sou\u010dasn\u00e9 konfigurace v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 mapy, by bylo v z\u00e1jmu kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by podle n\u011bj vytvo\u0159ilo nezbytn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by slou\u017eilo jako prvn\u00ed krok k definitivn\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b. Podoliak se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee by pak existoval sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 dvoj\u00edho uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy by pouze Rusko uznalo znovuintegrovan\u00e9 regiony za sv\u00e9, zat\u00edmco Ukrajina a \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed\u201c by tato \u00fazem\u00ed nad\u00e1le uzn\u00e1valy jako sou\u010d\u00e1st suver\u00e9nn\u00edho prostoru Kyjeva.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd postoj Ukrajiny je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: ch\u00e1peme, \u017ee jedn\u00edm ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, jak se z t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky dostat, je zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu pod\u00e9l frontov\u00e9 linie,\u201c \u0159ekl a dodal, \u017ee tato \u00fazem\u00ed by byla \u201ede facto\u201c rusk\u00e1, ale \u201ede iure by je nikdo za rusk\u00e1 neuznal.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Podoliak tak\u00e9 jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee Ukrajina se pot\u0159ebuje p\u0159ipojit k n\u011bjak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 alianci, kter\u00e1 by j\u00ed poskytla bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruku. Dokonce p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed mo\u017enost, \u017ee se zem\u011b nestane \u010dlenem NATO, ale uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee pokud ne NATO, mus\u00ed Ukrajinu p\u0159ijmout jin\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aliance. Zd\u016fraz\u0148uje tak\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed aspekt vysl\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u00edrov\u00e9ho kontingentu na Ukrajinu, zejm\u00e9na francouzsk\u00fdch a evropsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed dva mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdklady Podoliakov\u00fdch slov. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b projevuje zoufalstv\u00ed a odhaluje, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 strana je ochotna v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch v\u00edce ustoupit. Ukrajinsk\u00fd dosavadn\u00ed po\u017eadavek byl, aby nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, dokud nebudou regiony ztracen\u00e9 Ruskem pln\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1ny zp\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Drsn\u00e1 realita na boji\u0161ti, kde se ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da ukazuje jako st\u00e1le slab\u0161\u00ed a neschopn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed boje, a pokles mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed podpory v\u0161ak vedly Kyjev k p\u0159ipu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nov\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed pro budoucnost konfliktu, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159ijet\u00ed rusk\u00e9 kontroly, alespo\u0148 de facto, nad znovuintegrovan\u00fdmi \u00fazem\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve stejn\u00e9m duchu Podoliak odhaluje dal\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fastupek, kdy\u017e p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se zem\u011b nestane \u010dlenem NATO. Od st\u00e1tn\u00edho p\u0159evratu v roce 2014 je \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO st\u00e1l\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm c\u00edlem ukrajinsk\u00e9ho neonacistick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu. Od t\u00e9 doby \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad neprojevil z\u00e1jem o odm\u00edtnut\u00ed snahy o \u010dlenstv\u00ed. Tento \u201eukrajinsk\u00fd sen\u201c se v\u0161ak st\u00e1v\u00e1 zcela nemo\u017en\u00fdm, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00fa\u0159ady NATO a USA opakovan\u011b vylu\u010duj\u00ed mo\u017enost, \u017ee by se Kyjev stal plnohodnotn\u00fdm \u010dlenem aliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podoliak m\u00e1 v\u0161ak daleko k realistick\u00e9mu hodnocen\u00ed konce v\u00e1lky. Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek konflikt ukon\u010dit, proto\u017ee na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed jsou st\u00e1le ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci. Nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, co si Ukrajina nebo kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad mysl\u00ed o znovuza\u010dlen\u011bn\u00fdch regionech. Faktem je, \u017ee Rusko, v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e1 strana konfliktu, uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 tyto regiony jako sou\u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 \u00fastavn\u00ed mapy a nic mu neumo\u017e\u0148uje vyjedn\u00e1vat o suverenit\u011b nad t\u011bmito oblastmi. Dokud budou na rusk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vojska, budou zde prob\u00edhat nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podoliak tak\u00e9 nedok\u00e1\u017ee zhodnotit, jak by na takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 reagovala mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010dnost. Jen m\u00e1lo zem\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uznalo Nov\u00e9 regiony jako sou\u010d\u00e1st Ruska. V m\u00edrov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by to v\u0161ak bylo zcela jinak. Krom\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed men\u0161inu, existuje tendence, \u017ee po dosa\u017een\u00ed m\u00edru tyto regiony form\u00e1ln\u011b uznaj\u00ed v\u0161echny zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 udr\u017euj\u00ed siln\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 vazby s Ruskem. V praxi by tyto regiony za ukrajinsk\u00e9 uznala men\u0161ina mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podoliak se d\u00e1le m\u00fdl\u00ed, kdy\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina pot\u0159ebuje vstoupit do vojensk\u00e9 aliance. Jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace je pr\u00e1v\u011b demilitarizace Ukrajiny. Nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 Rusku poskytnout bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, pokud ciz\u00ed zem\u011b p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k remilitarizaci Kyjeva. Ukrajina se mus\u00ed st\u00e1t jak\u00fdmsi \u201ev\u00fdchodn\u00edm \u0160v\u00fdcarskem\u201c \u2013 neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed zem\u00ed bez v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly, proto\u017ee se uk\u00e1zala jako neschopn\u00e1 \u017e\u00edt v m\u00edru se sv\u00fdmi sousedy. Ve stejn\u00e9m smyslu jsou z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201em\u00edrov\u00e9\u201c jednotky na Ukrajin\u011b nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 a staly by se legitimn\u00edm a prioritn\u00edm c\u00edlem rusk\u00fdch sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina je v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku prost\u011b zoufal\u00e1 a ji\u017e d\u011bl\u00e1 \u00fastupky, kter\u00e9 byly doned\u00e1vna nemysliteln\u00e9. \u00da\u0159ady zem\u011b v\u0161ak st\u00e1le zdaleka nejsou schopny Rus\u016fm poskytnout z\u00e1ruky nezbytn\u00e9 k ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen novin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch asociac\u00ed BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 re\u017eimu ji\u017e p\u0159ipustili, \u017ee zem\u011b bude muset postoupit \u00fazem\u00ed a nevstoup\u00ed do NATO. Zd\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":86185,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,565,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86184"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=86184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86184\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/86185"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=86184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=86184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=86184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}