{"id":85664,"date":"2025-08-16T00:10:47","date_gmt":"2025-08-15T22:10:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85664"},"modified":"2025-08-15T14:51:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T12:51:08","slug":"jiri-paroubek-nastava-cas-koncertu-velmoci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/16\/jiri-paroubek-nastava-cas-koncertu-velmoci\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010das koncertu velmoc\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Je v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b u konce? Obnovuj\u00ed se norm\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy mezi Amerikou a Ruskem? Bude Evropa n\u00e1sledovat USA? S\u00e9rie ot\u00e1zek, kter\u00e1 byla p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny \u010di t\u00fddny nemysliteln\u00e1, tvo\u0159\u00ed obsah rozhovor\u016f v nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch kruz\u00edch t\u011bch, koho se to t\u00fdk\u00e1, ale nebyli p\u0159izv\u00e1ni.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle toho, co v\u00edme, americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump si dohodl s\u00a0rusk\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem Vladim\u00edrem Putinem uzav\u0159en\u00e9 dvoustrann\u00e9 setk\u00e1n\u00ed na Alja\u0161ce \u00a0v\u00a0Girdwoodu u Ankorage. Tam u\u017e m\u00e1 chlouba regionu, prvn\u00ed nordick\u00e9 l\u00e1zn\u011b Alyesca Nordic Spa, tot\u00e1ln\u011b zablokovan\u00e9 term\u00edny mezi 12. a 16. srpnem.<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u00edm, kte\u0159\u00ed u toho nebudou, nezb\u00fdv\u00e1, ne\u017e se setk\u00e1vat aspo\u0148 sami mezi sebou a zkusit tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ovlivnit nep\u0159\u00edmo, formou intervenc\u00ed, v\u00fdzev a prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 se s\u00e1hne i po r\u00e1zn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch metod\u00e1ch, aby se setk\u00e1n\u00ed zma\u0159ilo nebo alespo\u0148 odsunulo. Nen\u00ed divu, proto\u017ee se utk\u00e1vaj\u00ed dv\u011b zcela protikladn\u00e9 koncepce mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky.<\/p>\n

Kdyby \u0161lo jen o v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky, Rusko usiluje o obnovu strategick\u00e9 hloubky, kter\u00e1 by je odd\u011blovala od zem\u00ed (a z\u00e1kladen) NATO. Jeho hlavn\u00edm trumfem je moment\u00e1ln\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed postaven\u00ed na boji\u0161ti, kde ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky postupuj\u00ed tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc \u0161patn\u00fdm sm\u011brem. N\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00fd p\u00e1s mohou p\u0159edstavovat \u010dty\u0159i ukrajinsk\u00e9 provincie, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 Rusko u sv\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed hranice. Krym, obsazen\u00fd u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve, by tam byl samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina a jej\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed spojenci st\u00e1le doufaj\u00ed ve schopnost vnutit \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kdy by nejprve bylo vyhl\u00e1\u0161eno bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, a pak by se vyjedn\u00e1valo, jak d\u00e1l. Ukrajina z\u00e1rove\u0148 odm\u00edt\u00e1 vydat jak\u00e1koliv \u00fazem\u00ed, u\u017e p\u0159ece jej\u00ed \u00fastava to zakazuje. Ale Rusko u\u017e si tyto \u010dty\u0159i ukrajinsk\u00e9 provincie\u00a0 vt\u011blilo do \u00fastavy taky \u2013 a tohle nen\u00ed v\u00e1lka pr\u00e1vn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n

Kdo chce vojensk\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy Ruska zpochybnit, m\u016f\u017ee mluvit o tom, \u017ee postup je pomal\u00fd, obsazuj\u00ed se p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b mal\u00e9 vesnice a osady, zat\u00edmco ztr\u00e1ty jsou velk\u00e9 a je tu taky riziko vr\u0161\u00edc\u00edch se sankc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee podlomit rusk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l. Co\u017e se tvrd\u00ed u\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 3 a p\u016fl roku a zhroucen\u00ed Ruska se nekon\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Proti tomu lze pouk\u00e1zat na vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed velk\u00fdch m\u011bst Slavjansk a Kramatorsk, mno\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edpady \u00fapln\u00e9ho rozpadu ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany, vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed lidsk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f v br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00ed se arm\u00e1d\u011b a tot\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vislost Ukrajiny na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoci.<\/p>\n

Jakmile skon\u010di t\u0159eba americk\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 podpora, bez d\u00e1lkov\u00e9ho nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed jsou dodan\u00e9 chytr\u00e9 zbran\u011b slep\u00e9. Kr\u00e1tce, k\u00a0ni\u010demu. T\u00fdden po konfliktn\u00ed \u00fanorov\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho v\u00a0B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b, odkud byl host Trumpem vypoklonkov\u00e1n bez ve\u010de\u0159e, to Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 kr\u00e1tce p\u0159edvedli a v\u00fdsledek byl okam\u017eit\u011b vid\u011bt.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f v\u0161ak maj\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fvody, jak vycouvat z\u00a0konfliktu, kter\u00fd se jim m\u016f\u017ee vymknout z\u00a0rukou. Mno\u017e\u00ed se ukrajinsk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fatoky na strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle v\u00a0hloubi rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00fdmi se vyva\u017euje sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed schopnost ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany na donbask\u00e9 a z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 front\u011b. Ukrajinci nevid\u00ed jinou cestu, jak v\u00a0tomto konfliktu zachovat aspo\u0148 trochu rovnocenn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed, kter\u00e9 budou pot\u0159ebovat pro p\u0159ijateln\u00fd v\u00fdsledek jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a m\u00edru.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161ak cht\u011bj\u00ed od partner\u016f, od kter\u00fdch tyto zbran\u011b po\u017eaduj\u00ed, trochu moc. Ameri\u010dan\u016fm tato v\u00e1lka nevadila, dokud se na ni d\u00edvali zd\u00e1lky. Kdyby se v\u0161ak do \u00fatok\u016f na Rusko zapojily americk\u00e9 dalekonosn\u00e9 zbran\u011b, krmen\u00e9 daty z\u00a0americk\u00fdch satelit\u016f a mo\u017en\u00e1 i \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 americk\u00fdmi specialisty, konflikt by dostal p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd charakter.<\/p>\n

Z\u00a0druh\u00e9 strany by mohly l\u00e9tat Ore\u0161niky nebo n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho, \u010demu na vzd\u00e1lenosti nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed. St\u00e1lo by to za to? Trump u\u017e dal jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem tuhle v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dit, nikoliv vystup\u0148ovat. A \u017ee vid\u00ed mo\u017enosti, jak obnovit norm\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy s\u00a0Ruskem, proto\u017ee ob\u011b velmoci se vz\u00e1jemn\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed. Mnohem nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vzd\u00e1len\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka \u2013 a nic jin\u00e9ho v\u00a0o\u010d\u00edch Ameri\u010dan\u016f ten ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt nep\u0159edstavuje \u2013 je akutn\u00ed nedostatek kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch surovin pro technologie budoucnosti jako je um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence nebo elektromobilita.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1, \u017ee jsou tyto suroviny pod gr\u00f3nsk\u00fdm ledem, kam by se ameri\u010dt\u00ed prospekto\u0159i r\u00e1di pod\u00edvali, ale asi by se to neobe\u0161lo bez konfliktu se spojeneck\u00fdm D\u00e1nskem. Stejn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti jsou v\u0161ak v\u00a0rusk\u00fdch pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch vod\u00e1ch Arktidy, a tam Putin nazna\u010dil vst\u0159\u00edcnost. Vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy, o kter\u00e9 se jedn\u00e1, nejsou vz\u00e1cn\u00e9, \u017ee by jich bylo na Zemi m\u00e1lo, ale je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 a nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 je koncentrovat a zpracovat, a Rusko nab\u00edz\u00ed tak\u00e9 kapacity a prostory.<\/p>\n

Evropu dus\u00ed drah\u00e9 energie, ztr\u00e1ta v\u00fdchodn\u00edch trh\u016f – a \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 konkurence, kter\u00e1 tyto handicapy zesiluje. V\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 rozvr\u00e1tila zdroje evropsk\u00e9 prosperity, p\u0159itom vznikla ve sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00fd u\u017e vlastn\u011b nen\u00ed. Byl to sv\u011bt pod nadvl\u00e1dou americk\u00e9 hegemonie, sv\u011bt s\u00a0jedin\u00fdm p\u00f3lem, ke kter\u00e9mu bylo t\u0159eba hled\u011bt. N\u00e1stup \u010c\u00edny, Indie, Braz\u00edlie a dal\u0161\u00edch nov\u011b industrializovan\u00fdch zem\u00ed – velmoc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b t\u00e9to hegemonii \u010delit, vytvo\u0159il zcela nov\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 priority.<\/p>\n

Na alja\u0161sk\u00e9m summitu Trump \u2013 Putin m\u00e1 b\u00fdt podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch anal\u00fdz ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka jen podru\u017en\u00fdm t\u00e9matem. Hlavn\u00ed je narovn\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f obou velmoc\u00ed, kdy by se m\u00edsto v\u00fdm\u011bny schopnosti \u0161kodit vyt\u00e1hla v\u00fdm\u011bna p\u0159ednost\u00ed \u2013 rusk\u00e9 suroviny za americk\u00e9 technologie. To, co se chyst\u00e1, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jasn\u00e1 dohoda o z\u00e1sad\u00e1ch sou\u017eit\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Odv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed analytici u\u017e mluv\u00ed o nov\u00e9 Jalt\u011b, by\u0165 prob\u011bhne tentokr\u00e1t v\u00a0alja\u0161sk\u00e9m rezortu. \u010cesk\u00e1 opozice m\u00edr nepochybn\u011b uv\u00edt\u00e1. Ale nemluvme u\u017e jen o m\u00edru, mluvme o m\u00edru a spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

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Je v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b u konce? Obnovuj\u00ed se norm\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy mezi Amerikou a Ruskem? Bude…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,102,1629,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85664"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85664\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}