{"id":85544,"date":"2025-08-15T00:15:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T22:15:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85544"},"modified":"2025-08-15T02:54:10","modified_gmt":"2025-08-15T00:54:10","slug":"izraelske-noviny-jak-bude-vypadat-dalsi-izraelsko-iranska-raketova-valka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/15\/izraelske-noviny-jak-bude-vypadat-dalsi-izraelsko-iranska-raketova-valka\/","title":{"rendered":"Izraelsk\u00e9 noviny: Jak bude vypadat dal\u0161\u00ed izraelsko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n obnovuje sv\u016fj balistick\u00fd arzen\u00e1l a Izrael vyv\u00edj\u00ed nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my protiraketov\u00e9 obrany, ob\u011b strany jsou zapojeny do strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1vod\u016f ve zbrojen\u00ed. V\u00fdsledek t\u011bchto z\u00e1vod\u016f by mohl ur\u010dit podobu \u2013 a cenu \u2013 p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho velk\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Izrael a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty si pr\u00e1vem n\u00e1rokovaly v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed po dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. A\u010dkoli kone\u010dn\u00fd c\u00edl \u2013 ukon\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu \u2013 nebyl pln\u011b dosa\u017een, operace dos\u00e1hla v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch opera\u010dn\u00edch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f. Nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bylo, \u017ee byl vy\u0159azen z provozu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, co\u017e umo\u017enilo prakticky neomezenou vzdu\u0161nou p\u0159evahu hluboko uvnit\u0159 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. To umo\u017enilo p\u0159esn\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd program balistick\u00fdch raket, od jeho v\u00fdrobn\u00ed infrastruktury a\u017e po odpalovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na stran\u011b obrany byla situace slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Izraeli se poda\u0159ilo zachytit v\u0161echny \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 drony krom\u011b jednoho, stejn\u011b jako v\u011bt\u0161inu p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00edch raket. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b mal\u00fd po\u010det raket, kter\u00e9 pronikly \u00fazem\u00edm, zp\u016fsobil ob\u011bti a neb\u00fdval\u00e9 \u0161kody na dom\u00e1c\u00ed front\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu bude Izrael pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i nad\u00e1le schopen operovat nad \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem a \u00fato\u010dit na infrastrukturu souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s raketami. S v\u00fdhledem dop\u0159edu na p\u011bt a\u017e deset let v\u0161ak existuje re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n vybuduje pokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00ed a efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany \u2013 a mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce revitalizuje sv\u00e9 letectvo. V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by budouc\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok \u010delil nov\u00fdm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m a vypadal by velmi odli\u0161n\u011b od ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 kampan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1vod ve zbrojen\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Navzdory t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 r\u00e1n\u011b pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd raketov\u00fd arzen\u00e1l z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed jeho balistick\u00e9 rakety \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu \u2013 a nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hrozbou pro Izrael.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 st\u00e1le asi 1 000 balistick\u00fdch raket schopn\u00fdch dos\u00e1hnout Izraele,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Tal Inbar, specialista na raketov\u00e9 st\u0159ely a vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edk Aliance pro podporu protiraketov\u00e9 obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd raketov\u00fd program je zakotven v byrokratick\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd je v\u00fdhradn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en na jeho dal\u0161\u00ed rozvoj. Toho se v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nevzdaj\u00ed,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Fabian Hinz z Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho institutu pro strategick\u00e1 studia. Za v\u00fdvoj, v\u00fdrobu a odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto raket jsou zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 dv\u011b paraleln\u00ed organizace v r\u00e1mci Revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pohledu se balistick\u00e9 rakety uk\u00e1zaly jako jedin\u00fd dostupn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj, alespo\u0148 s omezenou \u00fa\u010dinnost\u00ed \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od milic\u00ed jako Hizball\u00e1h, kter\u00e9 se budovaly l\u00e9ta a nedos\u00e1hly o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. T\u011bch n\u011bkolik raket, kter\u00e9 pronikly izraelsk\u00fdmi a americk\u00fdmi obrann\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my, podle zahrani\u010dn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v zp\u016fsobilo zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody izraelsk\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed front\u011b a zas\u00e1hlo tak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 objekty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na obranu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Konflikt tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraznil obrovskou ekonomickou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e protiraketov\u00e9 obrany. Ji\u017e po n\u011bkolika dnech mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u00e9dia informovala, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el Arrow se rychle vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 protiraketov\u00e1 st\u0159ela Arrow-3 stoj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 miliony dolar\u016f, zat\u00edmco americk\u00e1 protiraketov\u00e1 st\u0159ela THAAD stoj\u00ed \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t tolik.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle anal\u00fdzy den\u00edku Haaretz bylo b\u011bhem 12denn\u00ed kampan\u011b odp\u00e1leno t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 st\u00edhac\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f THAAD. CNN pozd\u011bji uvedla, \u017ee by se toto \u010d\u00edslo mohlo vy\u0161plhat a\u017e na 150 \u2013 zhruba \u010dtvrtinu v\u0161ech americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f THAAD. Celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na st\u00edhac\u00ed syst\u00e9my nasazen\u00e9 Izraelem a USA se odhaduj\u00ed na 5 miliard \u0161ekel\u016f (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,4 miliardy dolar\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m ale nen\u00ed jen finan\u010dn\u00ed. Tyto syst\u00e9my jsou technologicky velmi slo\u017eit\u00e9, co\u017e omezuje tempo v\u00fdroby. Podle americk\u00e9 Agentury pro protiraketovou obranu bylo v roce 2025 vyrobeno pouze 12 protiraketov\u00fdch st\u0159el THAAD a v roce 2026 je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no 37. Vzhledem k t\u011bmto \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: Je v\u016fbec provediteln\u00e9 \u2013 ekonomicky nebo technologicky \u2013 vybudovat dostate\u010dn\u011b velk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby k odstra\u0161en\u00ed velk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f?<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSkute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det je: n\u00e1klady na obranu versus potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody bez obrany,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Inbar. \u201eP\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee by v\u0161ech 500 raket zas\u00e1hlo. 500kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody ne\u017e ve Weizmannovu institutu nebo v Bat Jamu. Obrana je drah\u00e1, ale protimodel je je\u0161t\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Inbar tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1vodech ve zbrojen\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem je rozlo\u017een\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f vyv\u00e1\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se zd\u00e1. Ceny \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed cen\u00e1m z\u00e1chytn\u00fdch raket, jako jsou Arrow-2 nebo Arrow-3. P\u0159esto\u017ee p\u0159esn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla jsou vz\u00e1cn\u00e1, slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed modely mohou podle Inbaru st\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e milion dolar\u016f za raketu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou m\u011bl \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00fdrobn\u00ed v\u00fdhodu: americk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby odhadovaly, \u017ee vyr\u00e1b\u00ed asi 50 raket m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b toto tempo v\u00fdrazn\u011b zpomalilo. \u00cdr\u00e1n se v\u0161ak dok\u00e1\u017ee zotavit. \u201eJe to ot\u00e1zka rozhodnut\u00ed, pen\u011bz a \u010dasu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd program p\u0159esnosti<\/span><\/h3>\n

Velk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka nyn\u00ed zn\u00ed: Jak bude \u00cdr\u00e1n d\u00e1le rozv\u00edjet sv\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 schopnosti? \u201eBude se i p\u0159es slabiny v \u0159\u00edjnu 2024 i nad\u00e1le zam\u011b\u0159ovat na p\u0159esnost?\u201c pt\u00e1 se Fabian Hinz. \u201eNebo se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na mno\u017estv\u00ed a akceptuje men\u0161\u00ed p\u0159esnost? Mo\u017en\u00e1 Teher\u00e1n tak\u00e9 zlep\u0161\u00ed odolnost sv\u00fdch odpalovac\u00edch ramp \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm rozlo\u017een\u00edm.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00e9 st\u0159ely by se tak\u00e9 mohly st\u00e1t odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi, nap\u0159\u00edklad pomoc\u00ed maket nebo submunice. To v\u0161e je mysliteln\u00e9, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Hinz.<\/span><\/p>\n

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P\u0159i \u00fatoku v roce 2024 byla p\u0159esnost \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket sporn\u00e1. Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee izraelskou leteckou z\u00e1kladnu v Nevatimu zni\u010dily des\u00edtky raket. Satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky v\u0161ak uk\u00e1zaly minim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody, a to i p\u0159es v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch z\u00e1sah\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed dat analytik Decker Eveleth dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru: p\u0159esnost nen\u00ed silnou str\u00e1nkou \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Zat\u00edmco jedna raketa zas\u00e1hla rafinerii v Haif\u011b, v\u011bt\u0161ina raket c\u00edle t\u011bsn\u011b minula nebo zas\u00e1hla bl\u00edzko. Fotografie desek plo\u0161n\u00fdch spoj\u016f z odp\u00e1len\u00fdch raket vyvolaly u z\u00e1padn\u00edch in\u017een\u00fdr\u016f \u00fa\u017eas: \u201eHra\u010dky pro d\u011bti?\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsko-rusk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana?<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 veden\u00ed ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee ji\u017e nahradilo v\u0161echny ztracen\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. To je v\u0161ak pochybn\u00e9. Obnoven\u00fd \u00fatok by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vedl k tomu, \u017ee Izrael znovu z\u00edsk\u00e1 vzdu\u0161nou nadvl\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n doposud pou\u017e\u00edval prim\u00e1rn\u011b vlastn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, dopln\u011bn\u00e9 rusk\u00fdmi S-300. Ty v\u0161ak selhaly. Vzhledem k v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b je ot\u00e1zkou, zda je Rusko schopno dodat n\u00e1hradu. Server Middle East Eye s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na arabsk\u00e9 zdroje uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna ji\u017e syst\u00e9my dodala. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 velvyslanectv\u00ed v Izraeli to pop\u0159elo. \u00cdr\u00e1n se nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u00fadajn\u011b zaj\u00edm\u00e1 o HQ-9B, \u010d\u00ednskou verzi S-300. Izrael\u0161t\u00ed experti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed skepti\u010dt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 letectvo: zastaral\u00e9 a zraniteln\u00e9<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 letectvo nehr\u00e1lo v posledn\u00ed v\u00e1lce \u017e\u00e1dnou roli. V\u011bt\u0161ina jeho letoun\u016f poch\u00e1z\u00ed z \u00e9ry \u0161\u00e1ha. Krom\u011b st\u00edha\u010dek F-14, F-4, F-5 a n\u011bkolika MiG\u016f-29 nen\u00ed v provozu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 modern\u00ed letadla. Pl\u00e1novan\u00fd n\u00e1kup Su-35 z Ruska byl odlo\u017een. Prob\u00edhaj\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou o n\u00e1kupu 40 st\u00edha\u010dek J-10C.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale i kdyby byly nov\u00e9 trysk\u00e1\u010de dod\u00e1ny, chyb\u00ed radar, syst\u00e9my AWACS, komunikace, infrastruktura \u2013 a pen\u00edze. \u010c\u00edna by mohla dodat v\u0161echny tyto v\u011bci, v\u010detn\u011b neviditeln\u00fdch trysk\u00e1\u010d\u016f. Ot\u00e1zkou je: M\u016f\u017ee si to \u00cdr\u00e1n dovolit? Mo\u017en\u00e1 z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska. P\u0159\u00edm\u00fd \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed koridor mezi \u010c\u00ednou a \u00cdr\u00e1nem o d\u00e9lce 10 000 km by mohl financovat dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm v\u00fdvozu ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u010dasn\u00e9 zachycen\u00ed nad nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm<\/span><\/h3>\n

Dr. Jeho\u0161ua Kalisky z INSS po\u017eaduje rychlej\u0161\u00ed st\u00edhac\u00ed st\u0159ely, kter\u00e9 by dok\u00e1zaly zachytit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety kr\u00e1tce po odp\u00e1len\u00ed nad nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. Tomu se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 zachycen\u00ed v boost-f\u00e1zov\u00e9m re\u017eimu (BPI). Jakmile se odd\u011bl\u00ed nosn\u00e1 konstrukce, je obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zni\u010dit hlavici. To vy\u017eaduje senzory a st\u00edhac\u00ed st\u0159ely, kter\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zas\u00e1hnout do p\u011bti minut.<\/span><\/p>\n

Laserov\u00e1 obrana jako model budoucnosti?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Laserov\u00e9 paprsky se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed rychlost\u00ed sv\u011btla \u2013 rychleji ne\u017e jak\u00e1koli st\u0159ela. Podle zpr\u00e1vy pro americk\u00fd Kongres je k efektivn\u00edmu zachycen\u00ed zapot\u0159eb\u00ed alespo\u0148 1 megawatt v\u00fdkonu. \u201eIron Beam\u201c v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b dosahuje 100 kilowatt\u016f. N\u00e1pady na vesm\u00edrn\u00e9 lasery jsou ve v\u00fdvoji, ale technologicky jsou st\u00e1le v nedohlednu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael a USA pracuj\u00ed na palubn\u00edch syst\u00e9mech. Spole\u010dnost Elbit Systems z\u00edskala 500 milion\u016f dolar\u016f na laserov\u00fd projekt. Lockheed Martin vyv\u00edj\u00ed TALWS, laserov\u00fd syst\u00e9m montovan\u00fd na podvozek pro trysk\u00e1\u010de.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00fd ministr obrany Israel Katz na konci v\u00e1lky prohl\u00e1sil: \u201ePo 7. \u0159\u00edjnu je imunita u konce.\u201c IDF m\u00e1 vypracovat dlouhodob\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny pro z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 nadvl\u00e1dy a omezen\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch a jadern\u00fdch program\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kalisky zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee budouc\u00ed konflikty s \u00cdr\u00e1nem mus\u00ed b\u00fdt kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 a c\u00edlen\u00e9. A d\u00e1le: \u201eChyb\u011bla izraelsk\u00e1 pozemn\u00ed raketov\u00e1 s\u00edla.\u201c Rakety zem\u011b-zem\u011b okam\u017eit\u011b reaguj\u00ed na \u010derven\u00e9 linie \u2013 se siln\u00fdm psychologick\u00fdm dopadem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oded Yaron<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n obnovuje sv\u016fj balistick\u00fd arzen\u00e1l a Izrael vyv\u00edj\u00ed nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my protiraketov\u00e9 obrany, ob\u011b strany…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,220,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85544"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85544\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}