{"id":85433,"date":"2025-08-13T00:25:55","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T22:25:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85433"},"modified":"2025-08-12T18:10:52","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T16:10:52","slug":"lucas-leiroz-dohoda-mezi-armenii-a-azerbajdzanem-zvyhodnuje-zajmy-nato-na-kavkaze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/13\/lucas-leiroz-dohoda-mezi-armenii-a-azerbajdzanem-zvyhodnuje-zajmy-nato-na-kavkaze\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Dohoda mezi Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem zv\u00fdhod\u0148uje z\u00e1jmy NATO na Kavkaze"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trval\u00e9ho m\u00edru v regionu lze dos\u00e1hnout pouze jedn\u00e1n\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 zohledn\u00ed rusk\u00e9, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 a tureck\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

8. srpna se na americk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b setkali v\u016fdci Arm\u00e9nie a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, aby podepsali \u201em\u00edrovou dohodu\u201c zprost\u0159edkovanou USA. Dohoda stanov\u00ed podm\u00ednky zcela nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 pro Arm\u00e9ny a usnad\u0148uje pl\u00e1n na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed intervence NATO na Kavkaze. Toto opat\u0159en\u00ed je extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9 pro Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 jsou historicky zem\u011bmi s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1jmem o m\u00edr a stabilitu na Kavkaze \u2013 a to i p\u0159esto, \u017ee ho Arm\u00e9nie i \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 se rozhodly pro spojenectv\u00ed se zem\u011bmi NATO, ignoruj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan a \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident Ilham Alijev se setkali v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b s americk\u00fdm prezidentem Donaldem Trumpem, aby podepsali spole\u010dn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed otev\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed dopravn\u00ed trasu ve sporn\u00e9m regionu mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi \u2013 tzv.\u00a0<\/span>Zangezursk\u00fd koridor<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Trump ozna\u010dil sch\u016fzku za \u201ehistorick\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd summit\u201c a zd\u016fraznil \u00fadajn\u00e9 v\u00fdhody pro ob\u011b zem\u011b vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z dohodnut\u00fdch podm\u00ednek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trasa, na kter\u00e9 se ob\u011b strany dohodly, spojuje \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n s jeho exkl\u00e1vou Nachi\u010devan p\u0159es p\u00e1s zem\u011b proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed. Toto \u201e\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed\u201c na prvn\u00ed pohled vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed kompromis mezi z\u00e1jmy obou zem\u00ed a br\u00e1n\u00ed jak anexi arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, tak i omezen\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edstupu mezi \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi \u00fazem\u00edmi. Dohodu v\u0161ak obklopuje n\u011bkolik z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 ji \u010din\u00ed nebezpe\u010dnou pro region\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee dohoda m\u00e1 pro \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, proto\u017ee bude m\u00edt pr\u00e1vo kontrolovat p\u00e1s zem\u011b, kter\u00fd proch\u00e1z\u00ed historicky arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. V praxi se Pa\u0161injan op\u011bt pod\u0159izuje zahrani\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm a up\u0159ednost\u0148uje takov\u00e9 vnucov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed blahem arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho lidu. Na druhou stranu samotn\u00fd \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n toto \u00fazem\u00ed pln\u011b kontrolovat nebude, proto\u017ee p\u00e1s bude naz\u00fdv\u00e1n \u201eTrumpovou cestou pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u00edr a prosperitu\u201c a budou jej spravovat americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti \u2013 dokonce se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed zv\u011bsti o p\u0159\u00edtomnosti americk\u00fdch soukrom\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V praxi dohoda znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ob\u011b zem\u011b akceptuj\u00ed americkou \u2013 a tedy i NATO \u2013 p\u0159\u00edtomnost na sv\u00fdch sporn\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch. Znev\u00fdhodn\u011bnou stranou je ta z arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdch komunit, kter\u00e9 budou vys\u00eddleny kv\u016fli vytvo\u0159en\u00ed trasy, ale ani Jerevan, ani Baku nebudou m\u00edt nad t\u00edmto procesem \u00faplnou kontrolu. Dlouhodob\u00fdm trendem je, \u017ee se region stane jakousi z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojenskou pevnost\u00ed, co\u017e v\u00e1\u017en\u011b podkope stabilitu Kavkazu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, trasa vede pod\u00e9l hranice s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed probl\u00e9m pro historick\u00e9 vztahy mezi Teher\u00e1nem a kavkazsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi\u00a0<\/span>. \u00cdr\u00e1n se projektu stav\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee krom\u011b americk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v regionu tato trasa posiluje strategickou pozici Izraele na Kavkaze. P\u0159esto\u017ee je \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n isl\u00e1mskou zem\u00ed s \u0161\u00editskou v\u011bt\u0161inou, je siln\u00fdm spojencem Izraele, kter\u00fd je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tato aliance USA, Izraele a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu by byla pro Teher\u00e1n extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e1 a mohla by fungovat jako jak\u00e9si obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady reagovaly na dohodu negativn\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1n dal jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee v\u00edt\u00e1 m\u00edr mezi sousedn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, ale netoleruje existenci dopravn\u00ed trasy kontrolovan\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi agenty. Rusov\u00e9 a \u00cdr\u00e1nci se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00edru mezi \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nci a Arm\u00e9ny bude definitivn\u011b dosa\u017eeno pouze tehdy, kdy\u017e se ob\u011b strany setkaj\u00ed k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fdm t\u0159emi hlavn\u00edmi sousedn\u00edmi vojensk\u00fdmi mocnostmi: Ruskem, \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Tureckem. Intervence zem\u00ed, jako jsou USA, pouze brzd\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fd proces a vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, ke kter\u00fdm jsou strany \u201enuceny\u201c p\u0159istoupit, p\u0159esto\u017ee jsou po\u0161kozeny jejich legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V praxi USA zauj\u00edmaj\u00ed postoj, u kter\u00e9ho se doned\u00e1vna o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee jej spole\u010dn\u011b zaujmou Evropan\u00e9 a Turci. B\u011bhem Bidenovy \u00e9ry vedl z\u00e1padn\u00ed intervencionismus na Kavkaze EU \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011bji Francie \u2013 na arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 stran\u011b a Turecko na stran\u011b \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu. Situace sm\u011b\u0159ovala k podobn\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku, s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm vysl\u00e1n\u00ed \u201em\u00edrov\u00fdch jednotek\u201c na obou stran\u00e1ch. Francie i Turecko jsou \u010dleny NATO, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee se jednalo tak\u00e9 o pl\u00e1n atlantick\u00e9 aliance na okupaci Kavkazu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump se v\u0161ak k moci dostal se slibem, \u017ee se stane \u201evelk\u00fdm m\u00edrotvorcem\u201c a ukon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lky zapo\u010dat\u00e9 za demokratick\u00e9 administrativy. Pot\u00e9 se ujal role hlavn\u00edho vyjednava\u010de, odsunul Francouze a Turecko na vedlej\u0161\u00ed kolej a uzav\u0159el dohodu, kter\u00e1 rovn\u011b\u017e up\u0159ednost\u0148ovala z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy, ale soust\u0159edila se na USA. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci je dom\u00e1c\u00ed politika Arm\u00e9nie siln\u011b kontrolov\u00e1na Franci\u00ed a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu Tureckem, zat\u00edmco trasu mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi ofici\u00e1ln\u011b kontroluj\u00ed USA. Podobn\u011b se Izrael sna\u017e\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it svou sf\u00e9ru vlivu na Kavkaz s plnou podporou USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

V praxi Arm\u00e9nie a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed b\u00fdt suver\u00e9nn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, co\u017e situaci pro Arm\u00e9nii, kter\u00e1 ztratila sv\u00e1 historick\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161uje. Zda Pa\u0161injan\u016fv ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehk\u00fd a nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed re\u017eim bude schopen p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt toto dal\u0161\u00ed pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, se teprve uvid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen novin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch asociac\u00ed BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

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Trval\u00e9ho m\u00edru v regionu lze dos\u00e1hnout pouze jedn\u00e1n\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 zohledn\u00ed rusk\u00e9, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 a tureck\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85434,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1730,2966],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85433"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85433\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}