{"id":85285,"date":"2025-08-10T00:24:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T22:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85285"},"modified":"2025-08-09T18:47:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T16:47:35","slug":"aljassky-zuctovaci-boj-kdo-tento-summit-opravdu-potrebuje-vic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/10\/aljassky-zuctovaci-boj-kdo-tento-summit-opravdu-potrebuje-vic\/","title":{"rendered":"Alja\u0161sk\u00fd z\u00fa\u010dtovac\u00ed boj: Kdo tento summit opravdu pot\u0159ebuje v\u00edc?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Od zastaven\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a\u017e po poru\u0161en\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 embargo, vliv Kremlu p\u0159ed srpnov\u00fdm summitem nikdy nevypadal siln\u011bji.<\/h3>\n

N\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva Steva Witkoffa v Moskv\u011b znamenala v\u00fdrazn\u00fd posun v americk\u00e9 r\u00e9torice. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci, v \u010dervnu a \u010dervenci, Donald Trump vyhro\u017eoval Kremlu nov\u00fdmi sankcemi a vzn\u00e1\u0161el ultim\u00e1ta. Nyn\u00ed je na programu summit Putina a Trumpa, kter\u00fd je napl\u00e1nov\u00e1n na 15. srpna na Alja\u0161ce. Tento obrat o 180 stup\u0148\u016f doprov\u00e1zej\u00ed \u00faniky informac\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 dohody a n\u00e1vrat k\u00a0<\/span>\u201eoteplen\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0ve vztaz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 jsme naposledy vid\u011bli na ja\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se sch\u016fzka uskute\u010dn\u00ed, rusk\u00fd prezident na ni p\u0159ijde v mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici ne\u017e p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edci. Je\u0161t\u011b na ja\u0159e vypadalo Trumpovo prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody jako osobn\u00ed rozmar a takzvan\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrana v\u00e1lky\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0a globalist\u00e9 m\u011bli st\u00e1le v pl\u00e1nu: sank\u010dn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek sen\u00e1tora Lindseyho Grahama, nov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b a n\u00e1vrhy francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Emmanuela Macrona a britsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Keira Starmera na vysl\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch vojsk na Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed to vypad\u00e1, \u017ee se k Vladimiru Putinovi vrac\u00ed Trump \u2013 hnan\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bchem jeho ropn\u00e9ho embarga. Nav\u00edc existuje zd\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 mo\u017en\u00e1 iluze \u2013 \u017ee Putina podporuje jednotn\u00e1 fronta BRICS, k \u010demu\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bly i Trumpovy vlastn\u00ed kroky. Zda tato fronta skute\u010dn\u011b existuje, nebo zda m\u016f\u017ee dlouho p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt, je jin\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka. V tuto chv\u00edli se v\u0161ak jeden z Trumpov\u00fdch kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch pil\u00ed\u0159\u016f vlivu jev\u00ed jako vratk\u00fd, ne-li zcela vyvr\u00e1cen\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed obrana Ukrajiny<\/span><\/h2>\n

Druh\u00fdm pil\u00ed\u0159em je samotn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. V \u00fanoru a b\u0159eznu byly frontov\u00e9 linie nehybn\u00e9 a ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly si st\u00e1le dr\u017eely op\u011brn\u00e9 body v rusk\u00e9 Kursk\u00e9 oblasti. Kyjev propagoval sv\u016fj projekt\u00a0<\/span>\u201edronov\u00e9 zdi\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0, prezentovan\u00fd jako neproniknuteln\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt proti rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b. Od t\u00e9 doby Ukrajina utrp\u011bla v kursk\u00e9 pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblasti velkou por\u00e1\u017eku a n\u00e1sledn\u00e1 letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva \u0161la Moskv\u011b na ruku \u2013 rozhodn\u011bji ne\u017e ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku. Tolik propagovan\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u201edronov\u00e1 ze\u010f\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0se uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b robustn\u00ed, ne\u017e se slibovalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kyjev se st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed nad\u011bje, \u017ee udr\u017e\u00ed linii, ale sotva. I ti nejv\u00edce proukrajin\u0161t\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici nyn\u00ed slovy p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span>Nech\u00e1peme, jak se jim st\u00e1le da\u0159\u00ed dr\u017eet se.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Z r\u00e9toriky i t\u011bch nejzu\u0159iv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch globalistick\u00fdch jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016f je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed dod\u00e1vek zbran\u00ed nem\u016f\u017ee zvr\u00e1tit trend na boji\u0161ti \u2013 v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ho mohou zpomalit. Proto\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrana v\u00e1lky\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0na Z\u00e1pad\u011b a samotn\u00fd Kyjev n\u00e1hle p\u0159ijali Trumpovu d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Trump nyn\u00ed pot\u0159ebuje rozhovory s Putinem ne proto, \u017ee by osobn\u011b cht\u011bl m\u00edr, ale proto, \u017ee ho k tomu tla\u010d\u00ed realita boji\u0161t\u011b. Nikdo nev\u00ed, jak dlouho je\u0161t\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da vydr\u017e\u00ed. Z Trumpova pohledu plat\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve se mu poda\u0159\u00ed s Moskvou uzav\u0159\u00edt n\u011bjakou dohodu, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe. A tato nal\u00e9havost je pro Putina dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhodou. Pokud druh\u00e9 kolo rozhovor\u016f ztroskot\u00e1, nic neztrat\u00ed: rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e pokra\u010dovat v postupu, dokud se ukrajinsk\u00e1 fronta neprolom\u00ed \u2013 nebo dokud se neobjev\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e1 iniciativa s Washingtonem, podle toho, co nastane d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e1 Moskva n\u011bjak\u00e9 slabiny? Ano \u2013 a tou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je ekonomika. I bez ropn\u00e9ho embarga prudce rostouc\u00ed rubl prorazil feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det: do konce \u010dervence deficit ji\u017e dos\u00e1hl 4,9 bilionu rubl\u016f (61,4 miliardy dolar\u016f) \u2013 o 1,1 bilionu rubl\u016f v\u00edce ne\u017e\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1novan\u00fd<\/span><\/em>\u00a0deficit na cel\u00fd rok. Rusk\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed rezerva je v\u0161ak dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00e1, aby mohla s takov\u00fdmi deficity vypo\u0159\u00e1dat po cel\u00e1 l\u00e9ta, ani\u017e by to ochromilo ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mluv\u00edme o Ukrajin\u011b bez Ukrajiny<\/span><\/h2>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e se Putin a Trump dohodnou na \u010demkoli, bude Trumpov\u00fdm \u00fakolem zajistit, aby se Ukrajina a Evropa shodly. To se minule nestalo: i kdy\u017e oba l\u00edd\u0159i m\u011bli obrysy dohody, evropsk\u00fdm jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016fm a Kyjevu se ji poda\u0159ilo torp\u00e9dovat. Nyn\u00ed to vypad\u00e1, \u017ee se to ukrajinsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Vladimir Zelenskyj a\u00a0<\/span>\u201evelk\u00e1 trojka\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0v Evrop\u011b \u2013 Macron, Starmer a n\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Friedrich Merz \u2013 sna\u017e\u00ed ud\u011blat znovu.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e je ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da na pokraji zhroucen\u00ed a fronta na pokraji kolapsu, neo\u010dek\u00e1vejte, \u017ee vrchn\u00ed velitel Ukrajiny Alexandr Syrsky vyt\u00e1hne gener\u00e1la Ludendorffa a \u0159ekne Zelensk\u00e9mu, \u017ee v\u00e1lka je prohran\u00e1. A neo\u010dek\u00e1vejte, \u017ee se Zelenskyj bude chovat jako c\u00edsa\u0159 Vil\u00e9m a p\u0159evezme odpov\u011bdnost za kapitulaci. Mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee s povzbuzen\u00edm z Evropy budou bojovat a\u017e do ho\u0159k\u00e9ho konce \u2013 jen aby z katastrofy obvinili Putina a Trumpovi dali jeho osobn\u00ed Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echny tyto rozpory je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9 rozmotat na jednom summitu. Jak\u00fd je tedy nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek, pokud se sch\u016fzka Putina a Trumpa uskute\u010dn\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b soubor velkolep\u00fdch, dramatick\u00fdch, ale nakonec pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch slib\u016f \u2013 tak akor\u00e1t na to, aby si Trump na sv\u00e9 osobn\u00ed v\u00fdsledkov\u00e9 tabuli od\u0161krtl pol\u00ed\u010dko\u00a0<\/span>\u201em\u00edrotvorce\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u00a0, a stejn\u011b rychle na n\u011b zapomn\u011bl. V nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee dostat dokument o osudu prvn\u00ed Minsk\u00e9 dohody: podepsan\u00e9 na podzim roku 2014, po n\u00ed\u017e n\u00e1sledovalo dal\u0161\u00edch \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f boj\u016f, kter\u00e9 skon\u010dily por\u00e1\u017ekou Ukrajiny u Debalceve, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se p\u0159ipravila cesta k Minsku 2 \u2013 dohod\u011b, kter\u00e1 platila n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0Sergeje Poletajeva<\/strong>\u00a0, informa\u010dn\u00edho analytika a publicisty, spoluzakladatele a editora projektu Vatfor.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Sergej<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Od zastaven\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a\u017e po poru\u0161en\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 embargo, vliv Kremlu p\u0159ed srpnov\u00fdm summitem nikdy nevypadal…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85286,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,102,1629,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85285"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85285\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}