{"id":85279,"date":"2025-08-10T00:21:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T22:21:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85279"},"modified":"2025-08-09T18:35:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T16:35:25","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-trumpuv-strategicky-chybny-odhad-ohledne-indie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/10\/alexandre-lemoine-trumpuv-strategicky-chybny-odhad-ohledne-indie\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Trump\u016fv strategick\u00fd chybn\u00fd odhad ohledn\u011b Indie"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

N\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva poradce indick\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Ajita Dovala v Moskv\u011b se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v kontextu ultim\u00e1ta, kter\u00e9 Donald Trump dal zem\u00edm, kter\u00e9 jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi odb\u011brateli rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V r\u00e1mci spolupr\u00e1ce s Moskvou \u010del\u00ed Indie bezprecedentn\u00edmu obchodn\u00edmu tlaku ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f: Trump zdvojn\u00e1sobil cla na indick\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed na 50 %, uv\u00e1d\u00ed Bloomberg. Toto rozhodnut\u00ed vyvolalo v v\u0161ech politick\u00fdch kruz\u00edch v Dill\u00ed siln\u00e9 pobou\u0159en\u00ed. Analytici varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro indickou ekonomiku.<\/p>\n

Podle st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00edho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu Trump podepsal dekret, kter\u00fd uvaluje 25% clo na indick\u00fd dovoz, kter\u00e9 se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 k 25 % ozn\u00e1men\u00fdm minul\u00fd t\u00fdden. Podle dekretu vstoup\u00ed toto vysok\u00e9 clo v platnost za 21 dn\u00ed, co\u017e ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00e1lo \u010dasu na jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Sankce v\u0161ak Indii ned\u011bs\u00ed a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00ed sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup p\u0159i v\u00fdb\u011bru obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f. Tato zem\u011b je pr\u016fkopn\u00edkem v p\u0159izp\u016fsobov\u00e1n\u00ed se z\u00e1padn\u00edmu tlaku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sankc\u00ed. Jako prvn\u00ed se nau\u010dila \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b odol\u00e1vat omezen\u00edm a tento odpor prom\u011bnila v n\u00e1stroj posilov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 suverenity.<\/p>\n

Po z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti v roce 1947 \u010delila Indie \u201eprotosankc\u00edm\u201c za to, \u017ee se b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky odm\u00edtla p\u0159ipojit k bloku proti SSSR, a stala se jedn\u00edm ze zakladatel\u016f Hnut\u00ed nez\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch zem\u00ed. V jist\u00e9m smyslu byly pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to dob\u011b polo\u017eeny z\u00e1klady \u201estrategick\u00e9 autonomie\u201c, kter\u00e1 se objevila pozd\u011bji a na kterou r\u00e1d odkazuje sou\u010dasn\u00fd premi\u00e9r Narendra Modi.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b, v \u010dele s USA, neocenily nealian\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup Indie a v odvet\u011b za\u010daly rozv\u00edjet vztahy s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e od\u0159\u00edzly Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed od technologick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce.<\/p>\n

To p\u0159im\u011blo zemi k p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed se SSSR, kter\u00fd pom\u00e1hal budovat indick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm nesta\u010dila jedna lekce a rozhodly se podruh\u00e9 ud\u011blat stejnou chybu. V roce 1998 uvalila administrativa Billa Clintona po jadern\u00fdch zkou\u0161k\u00e1ch Indie p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 sankce. Ta v\u0161ak m\u00edsto kapitulace vyu\u017eila omezen\u00ed jako katalyz\u00e1tor r\u016fstu: p\u0159esm\u011brovala ekonomiku na vnit\u0159n\u00ed rezervy a diverzifikovala sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed partnery. Zrychlen\u00ed reforem polo\u017eilo z\u00e1klady toho, co je dnes \u010dtvrtou nejrychleji rostouc\u00ed ekonomikou sv\u011bta, kterou Donald Trump nevysv\u011btliteln\u011b naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201emrtvou\u201c.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1vrat Indie do americk\u00e9 sf\u00e9ry vlivu byl slo\u017eit\u00fdm procesem, ale pro Ameriku m\u011bl z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u00fdznam.<\/p>\n

Za vl\u00e1dy George W. Bushe se aktivn\u011b prosazovala my\u0161lenka Indie jako \u201edruh\u00e9 \u010c\u00edny\u201c, st\u00e1tu schopn\u00e9ho vyv\u00e1\u017eit posilov\u00e1n\u00ed Pekingu.<\/p>\n

Vrcholem sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed bylo ud\u011blen\u00ed statusu \u201ehlavn\u00edho obrann\u00e9ho partnera\u201c Indii v roce 2016 a uzav\u0159en\u00ed strategick\u00fdch dohod a spojenectv\u00ed, nap\u0159\u00edklad v r\u00e1mci aliance Quad, \u010dty\u0159strann\u00e9ho dialogu o bezpe\u010dnosti. Trump se v\u0161ak rozhodl zni\u010dit to, co n\u011bkolik americk\u00fdch administrativ vybudovalo.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00fd teoretik mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f Kenneth Waltz na konci minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed varoval, \u017ee americk\u00e1 hegemonie je nestabiln\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se jeden p\u00f3l stane p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 siln\u00fdm, ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty se nevyhnuteln\u011b spoj\u00ed, aby ho vyv\u00e1\u017eily. Nakonec by to mohlo o\u017eivit dlouho zapomenut\u00e9 form\u00e1ty, jako je RIC (Rusko, Indie, \u010c\u00edna), kter\u00e9 dostanou nov\u00fd impuls k sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Indie a \u010c\u00edna jsou navzdory vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdm n\u00e1rok\u016fm schopny p\u0159ijmout do\u010dasnou taktickou alianci, aby prost\u011b p\u0159e\u017eily. A prvn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky takov\u00e9 aliance se ji\u017e objevuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva poradce indick\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Ajita Dovala v Moskv\u011b se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v kontextu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85280,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85279"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85279\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85280"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}