{"id":85191,"date":"2025-08-08T00:28:51","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T22:28:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85191"},"modified":"2025-08-07T18:04:47","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T16:04:47","slug":"andrew-korybko-co-je-zodpovedne-za-nadchazejici-summit-putina-a-trumpa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/08\/andrew-korybko-co-je-zodpovedne-za-nadchazejici-summit-putina-a-trumpa\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Co je zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed summit Putina a Trumpa?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jeden z nich musel nab\u00eddnout tomu druh\u00e9mu v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fastupky.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kremelsk\u00fd poradce Jurij U\u0161akov ve \u010dtvrtek\u00a0<\/span>potvrdil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee Putin a Trump by se mohli setkat ji\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden, a to po \u201e\u00a0<\/span>vysoce produktivn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c t\u0159\u00edhodinov\u00e9 sch\u016fzce zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho vyslance Steva Witkoffa se sv\u00fdm \u0161\u00e9fem. M\u00edsto kon\u00e1n\u00ed ji\u017e bylo tak\u00e9 dohodnuto. Stalo se tak den p\u0159ed vypr\u0161en\u00edm Trumpovy zkr\u00e1cen\u00e9 lh\u016fty pro Putina. St\u00e1le v\u0161ak nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Trump uval\u00ed na Rusko dal\u0161\u00ed sankce a a\u017e 100% cla na jeho obchodn\u00ed partnery, ale\u00a0<\/span>ve stejn\u00fd den\u00a0<\/span>zdvojn\u00e1sobil indick\u00e1 cla na 50 %.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b si v\u0161ichni kladou ot\u00e1zku, co je zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed summit Putina a Trumpa, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b kdo z nich nab\u00eddl tomu druh\u00e9mu nejv\u00edce \u00fastupk\u016f a pro\u010d. T\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed vypr\u0161en\u00edm Trumpovy lh\u016fty pro Putina se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee Putin tedy kapituluje, ale je tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se prok\u00e1\u017ee teorie \u201eTACO\u201c (\u201eTrump se v\u017edycky zbab\u011ble zbl\u00e1zn\u00ed\u201c). Existuje n\u011bkolik argument\u016f pro a proti ka\u017ed\u00e9 z t\u011bchto dvou my\u0161lenkov\u00fdch \u0161kol.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato anal\u00fdza\u00a0<\/span>z\u00a0<\/span><\/a>po\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna vyjmenovala p\u011bt d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d by Putin mohl souhlasit s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, a p\u011bt d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d by nemusel. Pokud jde o\u00a0<\/span>d\u016fvody, pro\u010d by mohl souhlasit\u00a0<\/span><\/a>: Rusko se chce vyhnout nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na \u010c\u00edn\u011b; tak\u00e9 chce \u010c\u00ednu p\u0159edb\u011bhnout \u201e\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00fdm uvoln\u011bn\u00edm nap\u011bt\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c; \u201enov\u00e9 uvoln\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed\u201c by mohlo geopoliticky zrevolucionizovat sv\u011bt; k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by mohly b\u00fdt p\u0159ipojeny dal\u0161\u00ed (a dokonce tajn\u00e9) podm\u00ednky; a Putin by si skute\u010dn\u011b mohl myslet, \u017ee Trump to s dal\u0161\u00ed eskalac\u00ed mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by mohl st\u00e1le pevn\u011b trvat na sv\u00e9m odporu k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>pokud nebudou nejprve spln\u011bny jeho podm\u00ednky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>z \u010dervna 2024, proto\u017ee: Rusko chce osvobodit v\u0161echna okupovan\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed; frontov\u00e9 linie by se mohly brzy zhroutit ve prosp\u011bch Ruska; Rusko chce odradit z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly od nasazen\u00ed na Ukrajinu; \u010d\u00e1st rusk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti si p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159eje; a Putin by si mohl opravdu myslet, \u017ee Trump blafuje ohledn\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace podle teorie \u201eTACO\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

To navazuje na d\u016fvody, pro\u010d by Trump mohl Putinovi nab\u00eddnout nejv\u00edce \u00fastupk\u016f. Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, mohlo by to b\u00fdt proto, \u017ee: st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011b zhodnotil v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 riziko eskalace a moud\u0159e se proti n\u00ed rozhodl; proto set\u0159\u00e1sl zhoubn\u00fd vliv v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d\u016f kolem sebe,\u00a0<\/span>jako je Lindsey Graham\u00a0<\/span><\/a>; je kone\u010dn\u011b ochoten\u00a0<\/span>donutit Zelensk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k Putinov\u00fdm po\u017eadovan\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm v oblasti m\u00edru; o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee usp\u011bje a \u017ee ani jeho\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00ed vazalov\u00e9 z EU,\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ani Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>to nebudou sabotovat; a douf\u00e1, \u017ee d\u00edky tomu z\u00edsk\u00e1 Nobelovu cenu m\u00edru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu by mohl st\u00e1le pevn\u011b st\u00e1t za sv\u00fdm odporem v\u016f\u010di nucen\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho k Putinov\u00fdm po\u017eadovan\u00fdm \u00fastupk\u016fm v oblasti m\u00edru, proto\u017ee: v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace by byla zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e1; je\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1le pod vlivem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161tv\u00e1\u010d\u016f, jako je Lindsey Graham; v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee si m\u016f\u017ee od Putina vynutit \u00fastupky; o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jeho nov\u00ed vazalov\u00e9 z EU a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed k jeho potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm pl\u00e1n\u016fm na eskalaci; a douf\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1 Nobelovu cenu m\u00edru, pokud Putina p\u0159im\u011bje k souhlasu s naprosto jednostrannou dohodou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni brzy zjist\u00ed,\u00a0<\/span>zda to byl Putin, nebo Trump, kdo se p\u0159epo\u010d\u00edtal\u00a0<\/span><\/a>t\u00edm, \u017ee konflikt neukon\u010dil d\u0159\u00edve, ale nem\u011bli by zapom\u00ednat, \u017ee a\u010dkoliv \u201e\u00a0<\/span>\u010c\u00edna mo\u017en\u00e1 nechce, aby Rusko prohr\u00e1lo, mo\u017en\u00e1 nechce ani, aby Rusko vyhr\u00e1lo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c. \u010c\u00edna by se tak mohla pokusit p\u0159edb\u011bhnout Rusko a dos\u00e1hnout \u201enov\u00e9ho uvoln\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed\u201c s USA, co\u017e by mohlo zpomalit nebo dokonce kompenzovat Trump\u016fv \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed zp\u011bt k (v\u00fdchodn\u00ed) Asii\u201c. Jist\u00e9 je jen to, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdden odhal\u00ed mnoho o faktorech, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed politiku t\u00e9to trojice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeden z nich musel nab\u00eddnout tomu druh\u00e9mu v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fastupky. Kremelsk\u00fd poradce Jurij U\u0161akov ve \u010dtvrtek\u00a0potvrdil\u00a0,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85192,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,102,1629,623,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85191"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85193,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85191\/revisions\/85193"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85192"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}