{"id":85136,"date":"2025-08-07T05:30:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T03:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=85136"},"modified":"2025-08-07T06:17:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T04:17:41","slug":"ukrajina-zacina-se-naplnovat-jeden-ze-scenaru-jpmorgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/07\/ukrajina-zacina-se-naplnovat-jeden-ze-scenaru-jpmorgan\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrajina: Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 se napl\u0148ovat jeden ze sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f JPMorgan?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analytici pova\u017euj\u00ed \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Ten p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ruska a ukon\u010den\u00ed podpory Kyjeva ze strany NATO a EU.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b detaily tohoto\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/a>\u00a0bude Steve Witkoff prob\u00edrat v Moskv\u011b, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0Asia Times<\/em>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Podle analytik\u016f p\u0159edn\u00ed americk\u00e9 banky je nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd\u201c, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by se Kyjev vr\u00e1til do rusk\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy bez z\u00e1padn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk nebo finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoci.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

JPMorgan Chase m\u00e1 poradenskou organizaci, kter\u00e1 analyzuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trendy, s n\u00e1zvem Centrum pro geopolitiku. V jedn\u00e9 ze sv\u00fdch ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v vyj\u00e1d\u0159ila n\u00e1zor, \u017ee nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b by byla nejednozna\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda mezi Moskvou a Kyjevem, bez nasazen\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vojsk na Ukrajin\u011b a bez poskytnut\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk.<\/p>\n

Brzy se m\u016f\u017eeme do\u010dkat krok\u016f v tomto sm\u011bru. Mohly by b\u00fdt podniknuty sou\u010dasn\u011b s n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvou Moskvy zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho vyslance prezidenta Donalda Trumpa Stevena Witkoffa.<\/p>\n

V kv\u011btnu zve\u0159ejnilo centrum JPMorgan Chase kr\u00e1tkou\u00a0studii<\/a>\u00a0s n\u00e1zvem\u00a0Konec hry mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou a budoucnost Evropy<\/em>\u00a0. Auto\u0159i zpr\u00e1vy, Derek Chollet, v\u00fdkonn\u00fd \u0159editel a vedouc\u00ed centra, a Lisa Sawyerov\u00e1, v\u00fdkonn\u00e1 \u0159editelka pro geopolitiku, pracovali pod veden\u00edm Joea Bidena na ministerstvu obrany a Chollet p\u016fsobil tak\u00e9 na ministerstvu zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli to nen\u00ed v\u00fdslovn\u011b uvedeno, oba byli ve vl\u00e1dn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch v dob\u011b, kdy Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty poskytovaly Ukrajin\u011b des\u00edtky miliard dolar\u016f na podporu, a to nejen ve form\u011b vojensk\u00e9 pomoci, ale tak\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00edm vl\u00e1dn\u00edch plat\u016f, vojensk\u00fdch d\u016fchod\u016f a rekonstruk\u010dn\u00edch prac\u00ed.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli studie ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech nep\u0159il\u00e1kala velkou pozornost, Ukrajina ji \u00fadajn\u011b brala velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e nast\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 ve studii byly projedn\u00e1ny v\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru<\/a>\u00a0s Kyrylem Budanovem, vedouc\u00edm Hlavn\u00edho zpravodajsk\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed (GUR) ukrajinsk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany.<\/p>\n

Studie p\u0159edpov\u00eddala uzav\u0159en\u00ed dohody mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem do konce druh\u00e9ho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed (tj. konce \u010dervna) roku 2025. Tato progn\u00f3za se nenaplnila.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i\u00a0\u201emo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky\u201c<\/a>\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu a jejich pravd\u011bpodobnost je posuzov\u00e1na v procentech.<\/p>\n

Nejlep\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je ozna\u010den jako \u201ejihokorejsk\u00fd\u201c s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 15 %. N\u00e1sleduje \u201eizraelsk\u00fd\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed 20 %. T\u0159et\u00ed a nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd\u201c (50 %). \u010ctvrt\u00fd a \u201enejhor\u0161\u00ed\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 auto\u0159i nazvali \u201eb\u011blorusk\u00fd\u201c.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 vylu\u010duje jak p\u0159\u00edtomnost zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vojsk, tak i poskytnut\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk, v\u010detn\u011b finan\u010dn\u00edch. Mohl by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zahrnovat bal\u00ed\u010dek pomoci na rekonstrukci, ale bez konfiskace zmrazen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch aktiv.<\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i nebude Ukrajina integrov\u00e1na ani do Evropsk\u00e9 unie, ani do NATO. Auto\u0159i se nav\u00edc domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee v gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i se Ukrajina nevyhnuteln\u011b vr\u00e1t\u00ed do rusk\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy, a to jak kv\u016fli obchodu, tak z mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eomezen\u00ed velikosti a povahy vojensk\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu Ukrajiny, kter\u00e9 je jednou z podm\u00ednek m\u00edrov\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, by mohlo p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b utlumit jej\u00ed dynamick\u00fd vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex a technologick\u00fd sektor a zabr\u00e1nit jim st\u00e1t se motorem r\u016fstu po skon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed.\u201c\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operac\u00ed se Ukrajina py\u0161nila relativn\u011b levnou technologickou v\u00fdrobou, zejm\u00e9na v oblasti v\u00fdvoje softwaru. Evropsk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ochotn\u011b uzav\u00edraly subdodavatelsk\u00e9 smlouvy s ukrajinsk\u00fdmi firmami. Se zah\u00e1jen\u00edm speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1stupci tohoto sektoru p\u0159esunuli k vojensk\u00fdm projekt\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed v\u0161ak d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd sektor je pro Ukrajince jedinou mo\u017enou mo\u017enost\u00ed zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed v oblasti high-tech. Pr\u00e1ce v komer\u010dn\u00edm sektoru je nav\u00edc obecn\u011b l\u00e9pe placen\u00e1 a \u010dasto se rozv\u00edj\u00ed rychleji. Vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, v\u010detn\u011b v\u00fdvoje v oblasti um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, je dnes na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch vysoce cen\u011bn a \u017e\u00e1dan\u00fd.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro realizaci gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 varianty jsou nutn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 dohody o \u00fazem\u00edch, hranic\u00edch, obchodu a souvisej\u00edc\u00edch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, stejn\u011b jako zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed na budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry na obou stran\u00e1ch. To zase znamen\u00e1 sta\u017een\u00ed NATO z Ukrajiny, s \u010d\u00edm\u017e se oddan\u00ed Evropan\u00e9 budou t\u011b\u017eko ideologicky sm\u00ed\u0159it.<\/p>\n

Jak v rozhovoru poznamenal \u0161\u00e9f ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 rozv\u011bdky Budanov, existuje mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f krom\u011b \u010dty\u0159 uveden\u00fdch ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b JPMorgan. Nejpozoruhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm rysem zpr\u00e1vy je v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u016fraz na gruz\u00ednskou variantu, kter\u00e1 je pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je to jen dal\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak uznat, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed, ani\u017e by se to otev\u0159en\u011b \u0159\u00edkalo, a to je za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b to nejlep\u0161\u00ed, v co m\u016f\u017eeme doufat.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin ve st\u0159edu 6. srpna p\u0159ijal zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho vyslance americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Steva Witkoffa. Setk\u00e1n\u00ed se kon\u00e1 v Kremlu, ozn\u00e1mila tiskov\u00e1 slu\u017eba hlavy st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov minul\u00fd t\u00fdden\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201eobjektivn\u00ed diskuse o ukrajinsk\u00e9 ot\u00e1zce mezi Moskvou a Washingtonem, kter\u00e9 prob\u00edhaj\u00ed od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, jsou velmi u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 a p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed v\u00fdsledky.\u201c Trump vol\u00e1 po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Rusko se br\u00e1n\u00ed. Bude zva\u017eov\u00e1na gruz\u00ednsk\u00e1 varianta? Nebo n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho?<\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analytici pova\u017euj\u00ed \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 urovn\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Ten p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ruska a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":85137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,22,37,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85136"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85136"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85136\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/85137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}