{"id":84788,"date":"2025-08-02T00:12:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T22:12:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=84788"},"modified":"2025-08-01T19:51:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T17:51:07","slug":"andrew-korybko-jaky-je-nejrealistictejsi-scenar-ve-kterem-by-zapad-mohl-nahradit-zelenskeho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/08\/02\/andrew-korybko-jaky-je-nejrealistictejsi-scenar-ve-kterem-by-zapad-mohl-nahradit-zelenskeho\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak\u00fd je nejrealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by Z\u00e1pad mohl nahradit Zelensk\u00e9ho?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mohli by po\u010dkat, a\u017e Rusko souhlas\u00ed s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm (pokud k n\u011bmu v\u016fbec n\u011bkdy dojde), proto\u017ee jeho nahrazen\u00ed Zalu\u017en\u00fdm, dokud zu\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed, by mohlo Ukrajinu d\u00e1le oslabit ku prosp\u011bchu Ruska.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rozv\u011bdka (SVR) zve\u0159ejnila koncem \u010dervence\u00a0zpr\u00e1vu\u00a0<\/a>, v n\u00ed\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee angloamerick\u00e1 Osa zorganizovala v Alp\u00e1ch tajnou sch\u016fzku se Zelensk\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edkem \u0161t\u00e1bu\u00a0Jermakem\u00a0<\/a>, \u0161\u00e9fem GUR\u00a0Budanovem\u00a0<\/a>a b\u00fdval\u00fdm vrchn\u00edm velitelem, kter\u00fd se stal velvyslancem ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii,\u00a0Zalu\u017en\u00fdm\u00a0<\/a>, ohledn\u011b budoucnosti Ukrajiny. Podle nich Jermak a Budanov souhlasili s n\u00e1vrhem angloamerick\u00e9 Osy nahradit Zelensk\u00e9ho Zalu\u017en\u00fdm, kter\u00fd by mohl b\u00fdt prosazen pod protikorup\u010dn\u00edmi z\u00e1minkami a \u201eresetovat\u201c vazby Ukrajiny se Z\u00e1padem.<\/p>\n

Sputnik\u00a0<\/a>sd\u00edlel n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy SVR od b\u00fdval\u00e9ho d\u016fstojn\u00edka americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty Scotta Rittera: \u201eSVR a jej\u00ed tiskov\u00e1 slu\u017eba \u201anejsou m\u00e9diem,\u2018 pouk\u00e1zal Ritter. \u201aNejsou tam od toho, aby informovaly ve\u0159ejnost, kdy\u017e zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed informace. Obvykle se tak d\u011bje za \u00fa\u010delem dosa\u017een\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e9ho c\u00edle nebo \u00fa\u010delu\u2018 \u2013 v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b signalizuj\u00ed touhu \u201azp\u016fsobit Zelensk\u00e9mu co nejv\u00edce \u0161kody v dob\u011b, kdy je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho\u2018, a prohloubit rozpory uvnit\u0159 jeho vl\u00e1dy a mezi n\u00edm a Zalu\u017en\u00fdm.\u201c<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va SVR n\u00e1sledovala po kritick\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku\u00a0Financial Times\u00a0<\/a>o Jermakovi, o kter\u00e9m SVR tvrdila, \u017ee Zelensk\u00e9ho \u201enastra\u017eil\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil, aby\u00a0zakro\u010dil proti protikorup\u010dn\u00edm instituc\u00edm\u00a0<\/a>, aby ospravedlnil\u00a0jakoukoli z\u00e1padn\u00ed snahu\u00a0<\/a>o jeho nahrazen\u00ed pod touto z\u00e1minkou. \u010cl\u00e1nek p\u0159i\u0161el t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rok po kritick\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku agentury\u00a0Bloomberg\u00a0<\/a>o n\u011bm. Ritterovo hodnocen\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f SVR je proto d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9, ale vzhledem k tomu, jak oni a dokonce i Putin v minulosti p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli Zelensk\u00e9ho p\u00e1d, se teprve uvid\u00ed, zda k n\u011bmu v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b dojde:<\/p>\n

* 12. prosince 2023: \u201e\u00a0Naryshkin\u016fv sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 o tom, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad nahrad\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho, by nem\u011bl b\u00fdt zavr\u017een\u00edhodn\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 22. ledna 2024: \u201e\u00a0Pro\u010d SVR zve\u0159ejnila svou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f o hroz\u00edc\u00ed byrokratick\u00e9 rekonstrukci na Ukrajin\u011b?\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 7. kv\u011btna 2024: \u201e\u00a0Rusko douf\u00e1, \u017ee ovlivn\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 hroz\u00edc\u00ed proces zm\u011bny re\u017eimu na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00fd podporuj\u00ed USA\u00a0<\/a>.\u201c<\/p>\n

* 22. \u010dervna 2024: \u201e\u00a0Jak je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee USA nahrad\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku?\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 15. srpna 2024: \u201e\u00a0Posouzen\u00ed pravdivosti nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy SVR o hroz\u00edc\u00edch politick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch v Kyjev\u011b\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 14. listopadu 2024: \u201e\u00a0USA pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nedonut\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho k uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voleb bez p\u0159edchoz\u00edho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 7. \u00fanora 2025: \u201e\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed \u0161pion\u00e1\u017en\u00ed slu\u017eba tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee NATO chce sesadit Zelensk\u00e9ho prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm nov\u00fdch voleb\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

Vr\u00e1t\u00edme-li se k nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1v\u011b SVR, Trumpova\u00a0nov\u00e1 troj\u00ed eskalace\u00a0<\/a>americk\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed do\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>a ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed EU jeho zem\u011b jako jej\u00edho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho vazalsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jejich\u00a0naprosto jednostrann\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohody\u00a0<\/a>by mohly anulovat jak\u00fdkoli \u00fadajn\u00fd p\u0159edchoz\u00ed imperativ USA nahradit Zelensk\u00e9ho. Koneckonc\u016f, Trump byl jen\u00a0zmanipulov\u00e1n do pl\u00ed\u017eiv\u00e9ho pohybu, a to\u00a0<\/a>navzdory jeho\u00a0zn\u00e1m\u00e9 roztr\u017ece\u00a0<\/a>se Zelensk\u00fdm v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b na ja\u0159e, a jeho nov\u00ed vazalov\u00e9 z EU ji\u017e up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku p\u0159ed v\u0161\u00edm ostatn\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Lze tedy tvrdit, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad ji\u017e \u201eresetoval\u201c sv\u00e9 vztahy s Ukrajinou, p\u0159esto\u017ee je Zelenskyj st\u00e1le u moci, m\u00edsto aby ho za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem nahradil, jak SVR uvedla, \u017ee se o to brzy pokus\u00ed, o \u010dem\u017e\u00a0informoval i dr\u017eitel Pulitzerovy ceny\u00a0<\/a>, novin\u00e1\u0159 Seymour Hersh, a to 11 dn\u00ed p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e to ud\u011blala SVR. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b Zelensk\u00e9ho nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1stupcem se skute\u010dn\u011b jev\u00ed Zalu\u017enyj, stejn\u011b jako SVR a Hersh, ale Z\u00e1pad by s jeho dosazen\u00edm mohl po\u010dkat, dokud Rusko nesouhlas\u00ed s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm (\u00a0pokud k n\u011bmu v\u016fbec n\u011bkdy dojde\u00a0<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Je to proto, \u017ee jeho nahrazen\u00ed v dob\u011b, kdy st\u00e1le zu\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce, by mohlo d\u00e1le oslabit Ukrajinu ve prosp\u011bch Ruska. U\u010dinit tak po jejich skon\u010den\u00ed by v\u0161ak mohlo symbolicky ohla\u0161ovat novou \u00e9ru pro Ukrajinu a tak\u00e9 by mohlo slou\u017eit Rusku jako odm\u011bna za dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee by splnilo jeho po\u017eadavek na legitimn\u00edho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce, se kter\u00fdm by Putin n\u00e1sledn\u011b mohl podepsat m\u00edrovou dohodu. Tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty d\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed smysl z pohledu z\u00e1padn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f, ale mohou se v\u017edy zm\u011bnit v z\u00e1vislosti na pr\u016fb\u011bhu konfliktu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Mohli by po\u010dkat, a\u017e Rusko souhlas\u00ed s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm (pokud k n\u011bmu v\u016fbec n\u011bkdy dojde), proto\u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,122,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84788"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84790,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84788\/revisions\/84790"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}