{"id":84425,"date":"2025-07-27T06:30:57","date_gmt":"2025-07-27T04:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=84425"},"modified":"2025-07-27T06:30:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-27T04:30:57","slug":"tropicke-cyklony-proc-je-letos-obdobi-bouri-tak-klidne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/27\/tropicke-cyklony-proc-je-letos-obdobi-bouri-tak-klidne\/","title":{"rendered":"Tropick\u00e9 cykl\u00f3ny \u2013 Pro\u010d je letos obdob\u00ed bou\u0159\u00ed tak klidn\u00e9?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span>A\u010dkoli klimati\u010dt\u00ed apokalyptikov\u00e9 r\u00e1di varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed n\u00e1r\u016fstem tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n v d\u016fsledku t\u00e9to zlov\u011bstn\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm prvn\u00ed polovina roku 2025 nebude nijak ovlivn\u011bna. To je zp\u016fsobeno n\u011bkolika d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi faktory.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>V zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm sv\u011bton\u00e1zoru stoupenc\u016f nov\u00e9ho klimatick\u00e9ho n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed je rovnice pom\u011brn\u011b jednoduch\u00e1: Teplej\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed se rovn\u00e1 vlh\u010d\u00edmu vzduchu, co\u017e se prom\u00edt\u00e1 do \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00edch a intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee po\u010das\u00ed se jen z\u0159\u00eddka shoduje s jak\u00fdmikoli p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou zase krmeny nedostate\u010dn\u00fdmi soubory dat, v\u0161ak pro dogmatiky hraje malou roli. Pokud to nesed\u00ed, tak to uprav\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To je patrn\u00e9 i pro prvn\u00edch sedm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. Data do 21. \u010dervence, zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 organizac\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/yaleclimateconnections.org\/2025\/07\/a-weird-lack-of-northern-hemisphere-tropical-cyclones-so-far-in-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span>Yale Climate Connection<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0, tomuto obrazu zcela neodpov\u00eddaj\u00ed. Po\u010das\u00ed zat\u00edm nebylo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm modelem tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n (v Americe naz\u00fdvan\u00fdch hurik\u00e1ny, v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii tajfuny a v Indick\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu) nijak ovlivn\u011bno.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1947642885148492229&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Ftropische-wirbelstuerme-warum-bleibt-die-sturmsaison-dieses-jahr-so-ruhig%2F&amp;sessionId=044e06a10b556d9dd1b97480ff6a28375a479b0e&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1947642885148492229\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span>Podle zpr\u00e1vy je kumulativn\u00ed energie tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n (ACE) v sou\u010dasnosti pouze na 41 procentech dlouhodob\u00e9ho pr\u016fm\u011bru. Jedn\u00e1 se o t\u0159et\u00ed nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hodnotu od roku 1971, kdy se za\u010daly prov\u00e1d\u011bt z\u00e1znamy. I kdy\u017e do konce \u010dervence bylo zaznamen\u00e1no 16 pojmenovan\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed, co\u017e je v norm\u00e1ln\u00edm rozmez\u00ed, byly v\u011bt\u0161inou kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9, slab\u00e9 a nen\u00e1padn\u00e9. Pouze\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/typhoon-comay-philippines-9b0c191c63112a109b60b420b5917010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span>tajfun Co-may<\/span><\/a><span> (na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako \u201eEmong\u201c) zp\u016fsobil velk\u00e9 z\u00e1plavy, zejm\u00e9na na hlavn\u00edm ostrov\u011b Luzon a bl\u00edzk\u00fdch ostrovech, jako je Mindoro. I ten v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 rychle zesl\u00e1bl na tropickou depresi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Po\u010det dn\u016f s bou\u0159kami s intenzitou hurik\u00e1n\u016f se zmen\u0161il na t\u0159etinu sv\u00e9 obvykl\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b. Nejsou patrn\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky apokalyptick\u00e9 bou\u0159liv\u00e9 n\u00e1sil\u00ed, kterou pravideln\u011b vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed klimati\u010dt\u00ed apokalyptikov\u00e9. Je\u0161t\u011b ironi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt, \u017ee k tomuto \u201edeficitu bou\u0159\u00ed\u201c doch\u00e1z\u00ed v roce, kdy byly teploty mo\u0159sk\u00e9 hladiny \u00fadajn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u201ekdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm\u201c (co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, kdo by je m\u011b\u0159il b\u011bhem klimatick\u00e9ho optima p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika tis\u00edci lety).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed povrchov\u00e9 teploty v severn\u00edm Atlantiku a z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b hraj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli. To m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek men\u0161\u00ed teplotn\u00ed gradient mezi tropick\u00fdmi a subtropick\u00fdmi vodami, a tedy men\u0161\u00ed dynamickou aktivitu \u2013 tropick\u00e9 cykl\u00f3ny nach\u00e1zej\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b \u201epotravy\u201c, proto\u017ee atmosf\u00e9ra je stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee roli hraje i p\u0159echod od El Ni\u00f1o k neutr\u00e1ln\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m ENSO. Zat\u00edmco klasick\u00e9 roky La Ni\u00f1a p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed v Atlantiku obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b vysok\u00fd po\u010det hurik\u00e1n\u016f, roky El Ni\u00f1o tento v\u00fdvoj brzd\u00ed (v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku je to obvykle naopak). Leto\u0161n\u00ed rok le\u017e\u00ed mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma extr\u00e9my, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u0159echod k La Ni\u00f1a se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 v prosinci. To m\u016f\u017ee vysv\u011btlovat tlumen\u00fd v\u00fdskyt siln\u00fdch bou\u0159\u00ed v n\u011bkolika oce\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u00e1nv\u00edch sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zar\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed je v\u0161ak to, jak klimati\u010dt\u00ed fanatici k t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce ml\u010d\u00ed. V p\u0159edchoz\u00edch letech byla ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost v\u00edtan\u00fdm darem pro po\u017eadavky klimatick\u00e9 politiky. Ale kdy\u017e realita neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 r\u00e9torice, ml\u010d\u00ed. P\u0159esto je \u010das zpochybnit dogmatick\u00fd sv\u011bton\u00e1zor, kter\u00fd pod\u0159izuje ka\u017edou formu meteorologick\u00e9 anom\u00e1lie dystopick\u00e9mu kultu CO2. Proto\u017ee pokud extr\u00e9mn\u00ed teploty automaticky nevedou k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu po\u010dtu hurik\u00e1n\u016f, projev\u00ed se z\u00e1sadn\u00ed slabina sou\u010dasn\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch model\u016f: jejich redukce slo\u017eit\u00fdch geofyzik\u00e1ln\u00edch proces\u016f na ideologicky zneu\u017eiteln\u00fd kauzalitu. P\u0159\u00edroda se v\u0161ak ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou politickou ani ideologickou agendou. A velmi jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00edce tepla nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b znamenat chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klima je souhrou nespo\u010dtu r\u016fzn\u00fdch sil \u2013 a n\u011bkdy ur\u010dit\u00e9 zm\u011bny vedou ke vzniku kompenza\u010dn\u00edch mechanism\u016f. Tento d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd poznatek by m\u011bl ve skute\u010dnosti slou\u017eit jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed pro alarmisty, \u017ee klimatick\u00e9 modely mohou b\u00fdt jen tak dobr\u00e9, jak to umo\u017e\u0148uje kvalita dat. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed za prvn\u00edch sedm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f leto\u0161n\u00edho roku jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee tomu tak nen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u010dkoli klimati\u010dt\u00ed apokalyptikov\u00e9 r\u00e1di varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed n\u00e1r\u016fstem tropick\u00fdch cykl\u00f3n v d\u016fsledku t\u00e9to zlov\u011bstn\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84426,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[9543,873,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84425"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84425\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}