{"id":84335,"date":"2025-07-26T04:15:45","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T02:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=84335"},"modified":"2025-07-26T04:15:45","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T02:15:45","slug":"ctyri-scenare-pro-ukrajinu-stastny-konec-v-dohledu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/26\/ctyri-scenare-pro-ukrajinu-stastny-konec-v-dohledu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro Ukrajinu: \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd konec v dohledu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analytici finan\u010dn\u00ed skupiny JPMorgan p\u0159edstavili \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich v\u0161ak nep\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u201e\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u0161\u0165astn\u00fd konec\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u201c pro Kyjev.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b je\u0161t\u011b neskon\u010dil, ale ji\u017e nyn\u00ed se vede dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lka o to, jak\u00a0<\/span>bude sv\u011bt vypadat<\/span><\/a>\u00a0po nastolen\u00ed m\u00edru. Odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 se nejen v bunkrech a velitelstv\u00edch, ale tak\u00e9 v konferen\u010dn\u00edch m\u00edstnostech, analytick\u00fdch centrech a u kulat\u00fdch stol\u016f, p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>Observer Finansowy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto sv\u011bt tak pozorn\u011b sledoval ud\u00e1losti 10. a 11. \u010dervence 2025 v \u0158\u00edm\u011b, kde se konala 4. mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konference o rekonstrukci Ukrajiny (URC2025). A\u010dkoli ofici\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161lo o pl\u00e1ny na obnovu zni\u010den\u00e9 ekonomiky, infrastruktury a instituc\u00ed zem\u011b, skute\u010dn\u00e9 s\u00e1zky v t\u011bchto jedn\u00e1n\u00edch byly mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed: budouc\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ukrajiny na map\u011b Evropy a v syst\u00e9mu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed spr\u00e1vy v\u011bc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159i roky pot\u00e9, co Rusko zah\u00e1jilo rozs\u00e1hlou vojenskou operaci, nikdo nemluv\u00ed o \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed demokracie nad tyrani\u00ed\u201c. Nyn\u00ed st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji sl\u00fdch\u00e1me jinou ot\u00e1zku: jakou Ukrajinu je sv\u011bt ochoten akceptovat?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na tuto ot\u00e1zku se v sou\u010dasnosti sna\u017e\u00ed odpov\u011bd\u011bt nejen politici, ale i ekonomov\u00e9. Analytici z finan\u010dn\u00ed skupiny JPMorgan Chase navrhuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u010dty\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu. Ka\u017ed\u00fd z nich m\u00e1 svou vlastn\u00ed logiku, n\u00e1klady a d\u016fsledky. Pouze jeden z nich p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina z\u00edsk\u00e1 re\u00e1lnou \u0161anci na prosperitu, stabilitu a pevn\u00e9 m\u00edsto v z\u00e1padn\u00edch struktur\u00e1ch. Ostatn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed cestu kompromisu, \u00fanavy a oscilac\u00ed v geopolitick\u00e9m spektru od \u201eobl\u00e9han\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 pevnosti\u201c a\u017e po \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd drift\u201c a \u201eb\u011bloruskou ztr\u00e1tu suverenity\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejlep\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd lze nazvat\u00a0<\/span>\u201ejihokorejsk\u00fdm<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u201c, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina, i p\u0159es nevstup do NATO, bude dost\u00e1vat trvalou vojenskou podporu, p\u0159\u00edtomnost evropsk\u00fdch sil na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a pevn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky od Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. 20 % jej\u00edho \u00fazem\u00ed okupovan\u00e9ho Ruskem z\u016fstane mimo kontrolu Kyjeva, ale zbytek zem\u011b bude m\u00edt \u0161anci na stabilitu, demokracii a rekonstrukci. A co je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pen\u00edze. Zmrazen\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 aktiva v hodnot\u011b 300 miliard dolar\u016f by mohla slou\u017eit jako z\u00e1klad pro ukrajinsk\u00fd \u201eMarshallov pl\u00e1n\u201c. Je to ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed, ale politicky slo\u017eit\u00e1 mo\u017enost. Pravd\u011bpodobnost? Pouze 15 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt \u201eizraelsk\u00fd\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00a0(20 %). Bez p\u0159\u00edtomnosti vojsk NATO, ale s pravidelnou vojenskou a finan\u010dn\u00ed podporou, by se Ukrajina prom\u011bnila v obl\u00e9hanou pevnost, ozbrojenou a\u017e po zuby, ale ve stavu permanentn\u00edho ohro\u017een\u00ed. Cenou takov\u00e9 varianty je zru\u0161en\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch sankc\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Rusku a faktick\u00e9 zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu na cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm (50 %) a bohu\u017eel i nejhor\u0161\u00edm realistick\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je\u00a0<\/span>ten \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Pokud se napln\u00ed, Ukrajina, nomin\u00e1ln\u011b nez\u00e1visl\u00e1, z\u016fstane bez bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk. Z\u00e1pad o tento st\u00e1t postupn\u011b ztrat\u00ed z\u00e1jem, demokratick\u00fd syst\u00e9m se za\u010dne hroutit, investo\u0159i odejdou a \u010d\u00e1st uprchl\u00edk\u016f se do zem\u011b nevr\u00e1t\u00ed. Ukrajina, un\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 geopolitick\u00fdm vakuem, se stane st\u00e1le v\u00edce z\u00e1vislou na sv\u00fdch sousedech, v\u010detn\u011b Moskvy. To se stalo Gruzii; zem\u011b byla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nestabiln\u00ed na to, aby se stala \u010dlenem EU.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je\u00a0<\/span>\u201eb\u011blorusk\u00fd\u201c<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Pokud Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ustoup\u00ed a Evropa se nepostav\u00ed na nohy, Ukrajina by se mohla st\u00e1t klientem Ruska. Prohraje nejen Ukrajina, ale i Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00fd nedok\u00e1\u017ee br\u00e1nit mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d zalo\u017een\u00fd na pravidlech, nikoli na s\u00edle. Pravd\u011bpodobnost takov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti? 15 %, stejn\u011b jako v \u201ejihokorejsk\u00e9m\u201c sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z re\u00e1ln\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f doposud nep\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u00fapln\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Kyjeva. I kdyby vojensk\u00fd konflikt skon\u010dil p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee na Ukrajin\u011b bude nastolen spravedliv\u00fd m\u00edr. Ukrajina ji\u017e zaplatila obrovskou cenu \u017eivoty sv\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, sv\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm a zni\u010denou ekonomikou. To, co na opl\u00e1tku dostane, z\u00e1vis\u00ed na s\u00edle a trvanlivosti z\u00e1ruk nab\u00edzen\u00fdch Z\u00e1padem. Pokud tyto z\u00e1ruky z\u016fstanou v\u00fdhradn\u011b na pap\u00ed\u0159e, Kyjev by mohl b\u00fdt nucen k dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fastupk\u016fm a ob\u011btovat nejen \u00fazem\u00ed, ale i svou suverenitu a identitu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti se nejv\u00edce znepokojuje \u201egruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u201c, posun sm\u011brem k zd\u00e1nliv\u00e9mu klidu, ale bez skute\u010dn\u00e9ho nav\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed na z\u00e1padn\u00ed struktury. Takov\u00fd \u201em\u00edr\u201c by demonstroval \u00fanavu Z\u00e1padu, jeho kapitulaci p\u0159ed politikou hotov\u00e9 v\u011bci a jeho tich\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch v\u00fdboj\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed odpov\u00edd\u00e1 logice Kremlu: Putin u\u017e nepot\u0159ebuje ovl\u00e1dat celou Ukrajinu; pot\u0159ebuje jen, aby sv\u011bt p\u0159ijal nov\u00fd status quo: okle\u0161t\u011bnou, neutralizovanou, demilitarizovanou a politicky demoralizovanou zemi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Elsa Boilly<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analytici finan\u010dn\u00ed skupiny JPMorgan p\u0159edstavili \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich v\u0161ak…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2562,26,2009],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84335"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}