{"id":84330,"date":"2025-07-26T04:02:08","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T02:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=84330"},"modified":"2025-07-26T04:02:08","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T02:02:08","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-sazkove-kancelare-sazeji-na-zvoleni-jd-vance-v-roce-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/26\/alexandre-lemoine-sazkove-kancelare-sazeji-na-zvoleni-jd-vance-v-roce-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: S\u00e1zkov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e s\u00e1zej\u00ed na zvolen\u00ed JD Vance v roce 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Americk\u00fd viceprezident je tipov\u00e1n na nominaci a dokonce i v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2028. A\u010dkoli do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch voleb zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed t\u0159i roky, s\u00e1zkov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e ji\u017e za\u010daly s p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010fmi. A stoj\u00ed za to jim v\u011bnovat pozornost, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v roce 2024 se s\u00e1zkov\u00e9 platformy uk\u00e1zaly jako p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e tradi\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, kdy\u017e p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bly v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Viceprezident J.D. Vance je favoritem jak mezi republik\u00e1ny, tak i mezi celkov\u00fdm soupe\u0159em o B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm. Jeho \u0161ance na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed se odhaduj\u00ed na 28 %, zat\u00edmco jeho nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed konkurent, demokratick\u00fd guvern\u00e9r Kalifornie Gavin Newsom, je s velk\u00fdm odstupem druh\u00fd s 14 %. Dal\u0161\u00ed intrikou, kterou popisuj\u00ed s\u00e1zkov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e, je mo\u017en\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dast Donalda Trumpa Jr., syna sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho prezidenta, ve volb\u00e1ch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 aktivn\u00ed diskuse o potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch prezidentsk\u00fdch kandid\u00e1tech ve volb\u00e1ch v roce 2028. Platforma Polymarket, kter\u00e1 ned\u00e1vno poprv\u00e9 zve\u0159ejnila\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159edpov\u011bdi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s\u00e1zkov\u00fdch kancel\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, vyvolala o toto t\u00e9ma intenzivn\u00ed z\u00e1jem . Zat\u00edmco sociologov\u00e9 ne v\u017edy berou anal\u00fdzu Polymarketu v \u00favahu, ve st\u00e1le nestabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 politice pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto platformy vykazuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159esnost. To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f voleb v roce 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento jev se vysv\u011btluje skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci maj\u00ed silnou finan\u010dn\u00ed motivaci k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed toho, aby se jejich p\u0159edpov\u011bdi splnily.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza zahrnuje v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed objem dat, intern\u00edch informac\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohly ovlivnit v\u00fdsledek kampan\u011b, jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>studie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Univerzity v Cincinnati. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto tato nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za p\u0159itahuje zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pozornost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je favoritem v z\u00e1vod\u011b viceprezident J. D. Vance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici se prim\u00e1rn\u011b spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na \u201ep\u0159irozenou\u201c povahu p\u0159echodu z jedn\u00e9 funkce do druh\u00e9. A\u010dkoli bylo do prezidentsk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu zvoleno pouze \u0161est z 15 viceprezident\u016f USA, a nikoli v d\u016fsledku p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed moci v d\u016fsledku \u00famrt\u00ed nebo rezignace hlavy st\u00e1tu, viceprezidenti maj\u00ed historicky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci z\u00edskat nominaci sv\u00e9 strany. Analytici se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b to d\u00e1v\u00e1 Vanceovi na za\u010d\u00e1tku zna\u010dn\u00fd politick\u00fd kapit\u00e1l.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho \u0161ance na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 nominaci jsou 56 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 to z informac\u00ed zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch na webu Polymarket. Americk\u00fd viceprezident je s velk\u00fdm n\u00e1skokem p\u0159ed ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marcem Rubiem (7 %). O n\u011bco m\u00e1lo m\u00e9n\u011b je Donald Trump Jr. (asi 5 %), kter\u00fd se dosud v politice p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 neanga\u017eoval.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00a0<\/span>uv\u00e1d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>The Hill<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, n\u011bkolik republik\u00e1n\u016f se ji\u017e ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee strana bude \u201epl\u00fdtvat \u010dasem a pen\u011bzi\u201c, pokud Donald Trump co nejd\u0159\u00edve neuzn\u00e1 J. D. Vancea za sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupce. Tito konzervativci se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee by bylo lep\u0161\u00ed nasm\u011brovat zdroje a s\u00edly na boj s demokraty, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na vnit\u0159n\u00ed rivalitu uvnit\u0159 strany.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump v\u0161ak st\u00e1le udr\u017euje nap\u011bt\u00ed p\u0159i \u017eivot\u011b. V kv\u011btnu v rozhovoru pro\u00a0<\/span>NBC News<\/span><\/em>\u00a0zm\u00ednil dva z kandid\u00e1t\u016f uveden\u00fdch jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1stupce, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jako prvn\u00ed jmenoval Marca Rubia. \u201eMysl\u00edm, \u017ee m\u00e1me skv\u011blou skupinu lid\u00ed… Pod\u00edvejte se na Marca, pod\u00edvejte se na J. D. Vance, je prost\u011b fantastick\u00fd,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prezident a dodal, \u017ee st\u00e1le existuje 10 a\u017e 15 lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli kandidovat na prezidenta za republik\u00e1ny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi uchaze\u010di o \u00fa\u0159ad by se m\u011bli v\u0161eobecn\u011b objevit J. D. Vance a Marco Rubio. My\u0161lenka mo\u017en\u00e9ho \u201edynastick\u00e9ho\u201c n\u00e1stupnictv\u00ed v osob\u011b Trumpa Jr. v\u0161ak americkou spole\u010dnost rozv\u00ed\u0159ila. \u201eTrumpovi hluboce z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na jeho odkazu. Rodinn\u00e1 dynastie by d\u00e1le pos\u00edlila jeho m\u00edsto v historii,\u201c poznamenal \u010dasopis The\u00a0<\/span>Hill<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump mlad\u0161\u00ed nevylou\u010dil mo\u017enost, \u017ee by se jednoho dne mohl uch\u00e1zet o prezidentsk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eV\u017edycky jsem \u0159\u00edkal, \u017ee nem\u00e1m absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem kandidovat na prezidenta v roce 2028 ani v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti, i kdy\u017e bych\u00a0<\/span>to nikdy na 100 procent nevylou\u010dil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0,\u201c napsal v kv\u011btnu na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edti X.\u00a0<\/span>The Hill<\/span><\/em>\u00a0nevylou\u010dil ani vyost\u0159en\u00ed rivality mezi J. D. Vancem a Donaldem Trumpem Jr., co\u017e by se mohlo st\u00e1t \u201ep\u0159edzv\u011bst\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho st\u0159etu v prim\u00e1rk\u00e1ch\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00fd viceprezident bude muset prok\u00e1zat svou vlastn\u00ed s\u00edlu a charisma a nespol\u00e9hat se pouze na podporu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 administrativy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Polymarket odhaduje celkov\u00e9 \u0161ance Vance na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch na 28 %, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hodnota ze v\u0161ech americk\u00fdch politik\u016f. Demokrat\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b zaost\u00e1vaj\u00ed. \u0160ance kalifornsk\u00e9ho guvern\u00e9ra Gavina Newsoma se odhaduj\u00ed na 14 % a kongresmanky Alexandrie Ocasio-Cortezov\u00e9 na 11 %. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed, \u017ee b\u00fdval\u00e1 prezidentsk\u00e1 kandid\u00e1tka Kamala Harrisov\u00e1, navzdory sv\u00e9mu statusu b\u00fdval\u00e9 viceprezidentky, m\u00e1 odhady pouze 4 %, stejn\u011b jako Donald Trump, kter\u00e9mu americk\u00e1 \u00fastava zakazuje kandidovat na t\u0159et\u00ed funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle demokratick\u00e9ho strat\u00e9ga Juliana Epsteina tato \u010d\u00edsla\u00a0<\/span>odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9m demokrat\u016f: nedostatek kandid\u00e1ta schopn\u00e9ho sjednotit r\u016fzn\u00e9 frakce strany a, co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u201eapelovat na zdrav\u00fd rozum\u201c a \u201esm\u011b\u0159ovat stranu ke st\u0159edu\u201c, jak to sv\u00e9ho \u010dasu dok\u00e1zal Bill Clinton. Epstein tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Demokratick\u00e1 strana se \u201eop\u011bt nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve f\u00e1zi pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00fd viceprezident je tipov\u00e1n na nominaci a dokonce i v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84331,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,165,37,7598,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84330"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}