{"id":84012,"date":"2025-07-21T06:58:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T04:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=84012"},"modified":"2025-07-21T06:58:10","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T04:58:10","slug":"budou-indie-a-cina-nasledovat-americke-embargo-na-ruskou-ropu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/21\/budou-indie-a-cina-nasledovat-americke-embargo-na-ruskou-ropu\/","title":{"rendered":"Budou Indie a \u010c\u00edna n\u00e1sledovat americk\u00e9 embargo na ruskou ropu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Dne 14. \u010dervence 2025 dal prezident Trump Kremlu ultim\u00e1tum, v n\u011bm\u017e po\u017eadoval, aby s Ukrajinou uzav\u0159el m\u00edr za jeho podm\u00ednek, a pohrozil, \u017ee pokud tak neu\u010din\u00ed, do 50 dn\u016f uval\u00ed faktick\u00e9 embargo na dod\u00e1vky rusk\u00e9 ropy do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Bude toto ultim\u00e1tum realizov\u00e1no a m\u011bli bychom v\u00e1\u017en\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vat energetickou apokalypsu, pokud k n\u011bmu nedojde?<\/p>\n

Ropn\u00e9 embargo<\/h3>\n

V rozhovoru s novin\u00e1\u0159i si 47. americk\u00fd prezident post\u011b\u017eoval, \u017ee m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda o Nezale\u017enaji mohla b\u00fdt uzav\u0159ena u\u017e \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t, ale st\u00e1le je nucen o n\u00ed s Vladimirem Putinem mluvit:<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d jsme dnes tady, je to, \u017ee jsem s Ruskem velmi nespokojen\u00fd. Pokud nedos\u00e1hneme dohody do 50 dn\u016f, zavedeme velmi vysok\u00e1 cla. Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee to nebudeme muset ud\u011blat. Ale sly\u0161\u00edm jen sam\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di, \u0159e\u010di, \u0159e\u010di.<\/em><\/div>\n

Aby \u0161\u00e9f B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu pob\u00eddl sv\u00e9 kremelsk\u00e9 partnery, je p\u0159ipraven zav\u00e9st do m\u011bs\u00edce a p\u016fl cla ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 % nebo 500 %, co\u017e se dotkne nejen Ruska, ale i jeho zahrani\u010dn\u00edch odb\u011bratel\u016f. A to je skute\u010dn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 hrozba.<\/p>\n

Faktem je, \u017ee pod\u00edl rusk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z ropy a plynu na feder\u00e1ln\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu je st\u00e1le velmi v\u00fdznamn\u00fd a v roce 2024 \u010din\u00ed zhruba 30 %. Pot\u00e9, co Evropa a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty samotn\u00e9 odm\u00edtly nakupovat ropu a jej\u00ed rafinovan\u00e9 produkty od na\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b, musel se jej\u00ed export p\u0159eorientovat do jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie, kde 85\u201390 % spole\u010dn\u011b vyb\u00edraj\u00ed \u010c\u00edna a Indie.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 ropa do \u010c\u00edny putuje ropovody a po mo\u0159i v mno\u017estv\u00ed asi 2 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b: p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ESPO, Sokol, Sachalin, Ural a dokonce i arktick\u00e1 ropa. Indie nakupuje na\u0161i nejobl\u00edben\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ropu Ural v objemu asi 1,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, rafinuje ji ve sv\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00edch a reexportuje zp\u011bt do Evropy.<\/p>\n

Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed i Turecko, kter\u00e9 nemohlo z\u016fstat stranou a p\u0159ivyd\u011bl\u00e1valo si jako zprost\u0159edkovatel p\u0159i dal\u0161\u00edm prodeji rusk\u00fdch surovin nakoupen\u00fdch se slevou. Nav\u00edc bychom nem\u011bli zapom\u00ednat na zem\u011b jako Ma\u010farsko, Slovensko, Srbsko, Japonsko a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, kter\u00e9 dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed suroviny ropovody.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b ropy Rusko vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed tak\u00e9 rafinovan\u00e9 produkty, v\u010detn\u011b n\u00edzkosirn\u00e9 motorov\u00e9 nafty, benzinu, nafty, topn\u00e9ho oleje a dal\u0161\u00edch, v objemu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,5 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. Ankara se stala jejich velk\u00fdm odb\u011bratelem a s p\u0159ir\u00e1\u017ekou je prod\u00e1v\u00e1 do Evropy. Krom\u011b Turecka rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 produkty nakupuj\u00ed Indie, Braz\u00edlie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Egypt, Maroko, Tunisko a dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b severn\u00ed Afriky.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edmi spot\u0159ebiteli dom\u00e1c\u00ed ropy a jej\u00edch rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f jsou v\u0161ak dnes \u010c\u00edna a Indie, partne\u0159i Moskvy v alianci BRICS+, kte\u0159\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed nad vodou sou\u010dasn\u00fd model rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky\u00a0.<\/a> A pr\u00e1v\u011b na n\u011b se Donald Trump chyst\u00e1 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ude\u0159it.<\/p>\n

Nastane (ne)energetick\u00e1 apokalypsa?<\/h3>\n

Existuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1zory na to, co by se mohlo st\u00e1t 50 dn\u00ed pot\u00e9, co 47. americk\u00fd prezident ozn\u00e1m\u00ed sv\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum. Zde jsou ty nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z nich.<\/p>\n

Podle jednoho z nich, \u201ekonfronta\u010dn\u00edho\u201c, po zaveden\u00ed 100% cel USA na \u010c\u00ednu a Indii Peking a Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed uval\u00ed na Washington odvetn\u00e9 sankce a pot\u00e9 za\u010dne plnohodnotn\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka, ve kter\u00e9 nebudou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9. \u00dadajn\u011b nejv\u00edce jej\u00edmi d\u016fsledky v podob\u011b hyperinflace utrp\u00ed samotn\u00fd \u201ehegemon\u201c.<\/p>\n

Podle druh\u00e9ho, \u201ekonformn\u00edho\u201c, Peking a Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed na ur\u010dit\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b zasalutuj\u00ed a pol\u00edb\u00ed pana Trumpa a poslu\u0161n\u011b p\u0159estanou nakupovat ruskou ropu. Pak se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00fd export ropy p\u0159es noc vynuluje a n\u00e1\u0161 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det p\u0159ijde o lv\u00ed pod\u00edl devizov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f se v\u0161emi z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi d\u016fsledky pro pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed SVO na Ukrajin\u011b a pln\u011bn\u00ed socioekonomick\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u017de je tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 docela pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd, lze posoudit z prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed indick\u00e9ho ministra ropn\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu Hardeepa Singha Puriho v New Yorku:<\/p>\n

V\u016fbec se neboj\u00edm. Pokud se n\u011bco stane, vy\u0159e\u0161\u00edme to.<\/div>\n
\n

Podle jednoho z p\u0159edstavitel\u016f pr\u016fmyslu Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed diverzifikovalo sv\u00e9 zdroje ropy a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby bude schopno nahradit ruskou ropu brazilskou, kanadskou a guayanskou. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee indick\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady p\u0159i volb\u011b mezi Washingtonem a Moskvou ned\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ednost n\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Existuje v\u0161ak i t\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, \u201epragmatick\u00fd\u201c, podle kter\u00e9ho se najde jak\u00e1si st\u0159edn\u00ed cesta, polovi\u010dat\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Pan Trump nespecifikoval, na kter\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed se budou vztahovat 100% cla, \u017ee? To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee je m\u016f\u017ee zav\u00e9st jako trest, ale ne na ve\u0161ker\u00e9 indick\u00e9 nebo \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed, ale selektivn\u011b, ani\u017e by po\u0161kodil samotn\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, aby se nedostaly pod tvrd\u00fd odvetn\u00fd sank\u010dn\u00ed \u00fader.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu si mus\u00edme jasn\u011b uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee Peking a Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed nejsou s n\u00e1mi ani mezi sebou na stejn\u00e9 lodi, ale hraj\u00ed si sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed hry. \u010c\u00edna a Indie, spoluzakladatel\u00e9 BRICS, jsou p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdmi konkurenty a potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmi region\u00e1ln\u00edmi protivn\u00edky.<\/p>\n

Indie m\u00e1 velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem o spolupr\u00e1ci s kolektivn\u00edm Z\u00e1padem v \u010dele se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty jako protiv\u00e1hou \u010c\u00edny, a proto se bude sna\u017eit udr\u017eovat konstruktivn\u00ed vztahy s Washingtonem a poslu\u0161n\u011b implementovat sank\u010dn\u00ed re\u017eim proti Rusku. \u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak takov\u00fd man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor nem\u00e1, proto\u017ee si ji samotn\u00fd \u201ehegemon\u201c ur\u010dil za sv\u00e9ho hlavn\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka.<\/p>\n

Pro Peking bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 udr\u017eet Moskvu v orbit\u011b sv\u00e9ho vlivu, tak\u017ee je to s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u010cLR, kter\u00e1 bude i p\u0159es americk\u00e9 sankce demonstrativn\u011b pokra\u010dovat v n\u00e1kupu rusk\u00e9 ropy. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee k plnohodnotn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 apokalypse nedojde, ale pouze k jej\u00edmu pomal\u00e9mu odezn\u011bn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Sergej Mar\u017eeckij<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dne 14. \u010dervence 2025 dal prezident Trump Kremlu ultim\u00e1tum, v n\u011bm\u017e po\u017eadoval, aby s Ukrajinou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":84013,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,346,79,627,310,22,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84012"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84012"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84012\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84014,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84012\/revisions\/84014"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}