{"id":83771,"date":"2025-07-18T00:27:47","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T22:27:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=83771"},"modified":"2025-07-17T15:05:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-17T13:05:27","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-obchodni-valka-mezi-usa-a-eu-bude-pro-cinu-prinosem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/07\/18\/alexandre-lemoine-obchodni-valka-mezi-usa-a-eu-bude-pro-cinu-prinosem\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi USA a EU bude pro \u010c\u00ednu p\u0159\u00ednosem"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Donald Trump ozn\u00e1mil zaveden\u00ed nov\u00fdch cel na zbo\u017e\u00ed z Evropsk\u00e9 unie a Mexika, kter\u00e9 po\u010d\u00ednaje 1. srpnem. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by mohly zat\u00e1hnout Evropu do obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Odborn\u00edci p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee brut\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka zp\u016fsob\u00ed \u0161kody na obou stran\u00e1ch Atlantiku, ale v t\u00e9to konfrontaci zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed strana.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a jejich z\u00e1padn\u00edm spojencem, Evropskou uni\u00ed, za\u010dala nov\u00e1 f\u00e1ze obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump ozn\u00e1mil zaveden\u00ed nov\u00fdch 30% cel na produkty z EU od 1. srpna. Uv\u00e1d\u00ed se to\u00a0<\/span>v Trumpov\u011b dopise<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159edsedkyni Evropsk\u00e9 komise Ursule von der Leyen. \u201eOd 1. srpna 2025 zavedeme clo ve v\u00fd\u0161i pouze 30 % na evropsk\u00e9 produkty vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, bez ohledu na jak\u00e9koli sektorov\u00e9 cla,\u201c napsal n\u00e1jemn\u00edk B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu v dopise zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9m na jeho str\u00e1nce na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edti Truth Social.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by mohly zat\u00e1hnout Evropu do brut\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky,\u00a0<\/span>prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed rozvojov\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce Benjamin Dousa. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm situaci ji\u017e na n\u011bkolika \u00farovn\u00edch vyhrotil a mo\u017enost obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky by podle n\u011bj nem\u011bla b\u00fdt vylou\u010dena.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle n\u011bj jsou 30% cla ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f opat\u0159en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 Evropa nem\u016f\u017ee akceptovat. \u201eSpojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty situaci ji\u017e na n\u011bkolika \u00farovn\u00edch vyhrotily a nem\u016f\u017eeme vylou\u010dit mo\u017enost, \u017ee n\u00e1s zat\u00e1hnou do obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky,\u201c \u0159ekl. \u201e30% cla samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nejsou n\u011bco, co my Evropan\u00e9 m\u016f\u017eeme akceptovat. V\u017edy jsme se sna\u017eili naj\u00edt spole\u010dn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by vyhovovalo n\u00e1m v\u0161em, ale B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm si nad\u00e1le jde svou vlastn\u00ed cestou a j\u00e1 to pova\u017euji za politov\u00e1n\u00edhodn\u00e9.\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V hypotetick\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i \u00fapln\u00e9ho zastaven\u00ed obchodu mezi EU a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty by EU ztratila pouze 17 % sv\u00e9ho obchodu. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by v d\u016fsledku zastaven\u00ed obchodu s EU po p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed obchodn\u00edch tok\u016f zaznamenaly dopad na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 13 % sv\u00e9ho obchodu. Ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1: jak bl\u00edzko jsou strany ochotny zaj\u00edt ke stavu bl\u00edzk\u00e9mu \u00fapln\u00e9mu zastaven\u00ed obchodu?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle\u00a0<\/span>odhad\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Goldman Sachs by tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mohla euroz\u00f3nu do konce roku 2026 st\u00e1t a\u017e 1,2 % HDP.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Trump\u016fv krok je citliv\u00fd pro evropskou ekonomiku. 30% cla ozn\u00e1men\u00e1 Trumpem s platnost\u00ed od 1. srpna p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u00e1ku geopolitick\u00e9ho tlaku. Dot\u010dena jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 exportn\u00ed odv\u011btv\u00ed: automobily, l\u00e9\u010diva, luxusn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a elektronika. Nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou N\u011bmecko, Francie, It\u00e1lie a Nizozemsko. Tyto \u010dty\u0159i zem\u011b p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 % dod\u00e1vek z EU do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st jejich exportn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z\u00e1vis\u00ed na americk\u00e9m trhu, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje celkov\u00fd ro\u010dn\u00ed obrat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 miliard eur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 produkce na nov\u00e9 trhy by mohlo v\u00e9st ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m cen produkt\u016f na nov\u00fdch trz\u00edch a k dodate\u010dn\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm na nov\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed trasy a logistiku. Situaci by mohla zm\u00edrnit \u0161irok\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 region\u00e1ln\u00edch obchodn\u00edch dohod. EU ji\u017e zintenziv\u0148uje obchodn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Indi\u00ed, Austr\u00e1li\u00ed, Indon\u00e9si\u00ed, SAE a dal\u0161\u00edmi zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k nahrazen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho odbytov\u00e9ho trhu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O co Washington usiluje? P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm o demonstraci s\u00edly. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty cht\u011bj\u00ed od EU \u00fastupky v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, regula\u010dn\u00ed politice a mo\u017en\u00e1 i loaj\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj k \u00cdr\u00e1nu a \u010c\u00edn\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale bude to fungovat? Je to nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Evropsk\u00e1 unie i p\u0159es vnit\u0159n\u00ed neshody st\u00e1le p\u0159ipravuje symetrickou reakci, v\u010detn\u011b cel na produkty Boeingu a mo\u017en\u00fdch omezen\u00ed ve finan\u010dn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00edch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Brusel hroz\u00ed zaveden\u00edm odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed za zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel ze strany USA. Prvn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek takov\u00fdch odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed byl schv\u00e1len ji\u017e na ja\u0159e, ale nebyl zaveden kv\u016fli zah\u00e1jen\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm a zm\u011bk\u010den\u00ed postoje USA. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel ovlivn\u00ed americk\u00fd dovoz v hodnot\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 18 miliard dolar\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b s\u00f3jov\u00fdch bob\u016f, hov\u011bz\u00edho masa, tab\u00e1ku, automobil\u016f, jachet a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed se diskutuje o nov\u00e9m bal\u00ed\u010dku v hodnot\u011b p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 60 miliard dolar\u016f. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee celkov\u00fd dovoz EU z USA v roce 2024 dos\u00e1hne 400 miliard dolar\u016f, mohla by tato opat\u0159en\u00ed ovlivnit 20 % v\u0161ech z\u00e1silek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud konflikt p\u0159eroste do drsn\u00e9 f\u00e1ze, prohraj\u00ed v\u0161ichni, ale zejm\u00e9na Evropa, proto\u017ee exportn\u00ed model evropsk\u00e9 ekonomiky je tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu tlaku velmi k\u0159ehk\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nelze v\u0161ak \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee brut\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka s EU z\u016fstane bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed i ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

EU je pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm trhem nejen pro prodej produkt\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 pro technologickou spolupr\u00e1ci, zejm\u00e9na ve v\u00fdrob\u011b polovodi\u010d\u016f, mikroprocesor\u016f, pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a v\u00fdvoji um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence, a tak\u00e9 pro prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed standard\u016f v nov\u00fdch inovativn\u00edch oblastech a pro konkurenci s \u010c\u00ednou v nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00edch oborech.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako v ka\u017ed\u00e9 konfrontaci jsou i v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9. Odborn\u00edci jsou p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna a rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se trhy z brut\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a EU profituj\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna u\u017e dlouho sn\u00ed o tom, \u017ee obsad\u00ed pozici mezi americkou a evropskou ekonomikou, a v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se j\u00ed otev\u00edr\u00e1 okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump ozn\u00e1mil zaveden\u00ed nov\u00fdch cel na zbo\u017e\u00ed z Evropsk\u00e9 unie a Mexika, kter\u00e9 po\u010d\u00ednaje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83772,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,41,3965,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83771"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83771"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83771\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83771"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83771"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83771"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}